TY  - JOUR
A1  - Paeth, Heiko
A1  - Paxian, Andreas
A1  - Sein, Dimitry V.
A1  - Jacob, Daniela
A1  - Panitz, Hans-Jürgen
A1  - Warscher, Michael
A1  - Fink, Andreas H.
A1  - Kunstmann, Harald
A1  - Breil, Marcus
A1  - Engel, Thomas
A1  - Krause, Andreas
A1  - Toedter, Julian
A1  - Ahrens, Bodo
T1  - Decadal and multi-year predictability of the West African monsoon and the role of dynamical downscaling
T2  - Meteorologische Zeitschrift
N2  - West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system.
In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and landsurface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.
KW  - geography
KW  - decadal predictability
KW  - West Africa
KW  - monsoon rainfall
KW  - dynamical downscaling
Y1  - 2017
UR  - https://opus.bibliothek.uni-wuerzburg.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/17201
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-172018
VL  - 26
IS  - 4
ER  -