@article{GrassmannFritscheKeilhaueretal.2012,
  author    = {Grassmann, Felix and Fritsche, Lars G. and Keilhauer, Claudia N. and Heid, Iris M. and Weber, Bernhard H. F.},
  title     = {Modelling the Genetic Risk in Age-Related Macular Degeneration},
  series = {PLoS One},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {PLoS One},
  number    = {5},
  doi       = {10.1371/journal.pone.0037979},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-131315},
  pages     = {e37979},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS) for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95\% CI: 1.69-2.05) than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95\% CI: 1.36-1.54). Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95\% CI: 14.11-1131.96) for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5\% of the general population) compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2\% of general population). The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9\% and a specificity of 99.9\% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4\% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2\% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50\% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.},
  language  = {en}
}