@article{GrabenhenrichReichFischeretal.2014,
  author    = {Grabenhenrich, Linus B. and Reich, Andreas and Fischer, Felix and Zepp, Fred and Forster, Johannes and Schuster, Antje and Bauer, Carl-Peter and Bergmann, Renate L. and Bergmann, Karl E. and Wahn, Ulrich and Keil, Thomas and Lau, Susanne},
  title     = {The Novel 10-Item Asthma Prediction Tool: External Validation in the German MAS Birth Cohort},
  series = {PLOS ONE},
  volume    = {9},
  journal   = {PLOS ONE},
  number    = {12},
  issn      = {1932-6203},
  doi       = {10.1371/journal.pone.0115852},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-114202},
  pages     = {e115852},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Background: A novel non-invasive asthma prediction tool from the Leicester Cohort, UK, forecasts asthma at age 8 years based on 10 predictors assessed in early childhood, including current respiratory symptoms, eczema, and parental history of asthma. Objective: We aimed to externally validate the proposed asthma prediction method in a German birth cohort. Methods: The MAS-90 study (Multicentre Allergy Study) recorded details on allergic diseases prospectively in about yearly follow-up assessments up to age 20 years in a cohort of 1,314 children born 1990. We replicated the scoring method from the Leicester cohort and assessed prediction, performance and discrimination. The primary outcome was defined as the combination of parent-reported wheeze and asthma drugs (both in last 12 months) at age 8. Sensitivity analyses assessed model performance for outcomes related to asthma up to age 20 years. Results: For 140 children parents reported current wheeze or cough at age 3 years. Score distribution and frequencies of later asthma resembled the Leicester cohort: 9\% vs. 16\% (MAS-90 vs. Leicester) of children at low risk at 3 years had asthma at 8 years, at medium risk 45\% vs. 48\%. Performance of the asthma prediction tool in the MAS-90 cohort was similar (Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.23) and discrimination slightly better than in the original cohort (area under the curve, AUC 0.83 vs. 0.78). Prediction and discrimination were robust against changes of inclusion criteria, scoring and outcome definitions. The secondary outcome 'physicians' diagnosed asthma at 20 years' showed the highest discrimination (AUC 0.89). Conclusion: The novel asthma prediction tool from the Leicester cohort, UK, performed well in another population, a German birth cohort, supporting its use and further development as a simple aid to predict asthma risk in clinical settings.},
  language  = {en}
}
@incollection{Lutz1991,
  author    = {Lutz, Werner K.},
  title     = {Dose-response relationships in chemical carcinogenesis: from DNA adducts to tumor incidence},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-71625},
  publisher      = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg},
  year      = {1991},
  abstract  = {Mechanistic possibilitles responsible for nonlinear shapes of the dose-response relationship in chemical carcinogenesis are discussed. (i) Induction and saturation of enzymatic activation and detoxification processes and of DNA repair affect the relationship between dose and steady-state DNA adduct Ievel; (ii) The fixation of DNA adducts in the form of mutations is accelerated by stimulation of the cell division, for Jnstance due to regenerative hyperplasia at cytotoxic dose Ievels; (iii) The rate of tumor formation results from a superposition of the rates of the individual steps. It can become exponential with dose if more than one step is accelerated by the DNA damage exerted by the genotoxic carcinogen. The strongly sigmoidal shapes often observed for dose-tumor incidence relationships in animal bioassays supports this analysis. A power of four for the dose in the su~linear part of the curve is the maximum observed (formaldehyde). In contrast to animal experiments, epidemiological data ln humans rarely show a slgnificant deviation from linearity. The discrepancy might be explained by the fact that a I arge nu mber of genes contribute to the overall sensitivity of an individual and to the respective heterogeneity within the human population. Mechanistic nonlinearities are flattened out in the presence of genetic and life-style factors which affect the sensitivity for the development of cancer. For a risk assessment, linear extrapolation from the high-dose lncidence to the spontaneaus rate can therefore be approprlate in a heterogeneous population even if the mechanism of action would result in a nonlinear shape of the dose-response curve in a homogeneaus population.},
  language  = {en}
}