@article{PaethPaxianSeinetal.2017,
  author    = {Paeth, Heiko and Paxian, Andreas and Sein, Dimitry V. and Jacob, Daniela and Panitz, Hans-J{\"u}rgen and Warscher, Michael and Fink, Andreas H. and Kunstmann, Harald and Breil, Marcus and Engel, Thomas and Krause, Andreas and Toedter, Julian and Ahrens, Bodo},
  title     = {Decadal and multi-year predictability of the West African monsoon and the role of dynamical downscaling},
  series = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
  volume    = {26},
  journal   = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
  number    = {4},
  doi       = {10.1127/metz/2017/0811},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-172018},
  pages     = {363-377},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system. In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and landsurface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{AichAkhundzadahKnuerretal.2017,
  author    = {Aich, Valentin and Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad and Knuerr, Alec and Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed and Hattermann, Fred and Paeth, Heiko and Scanlon, Andrew and Paton, Eva Nora},
  title     = {Climate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations},
  series = {Climate},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Climate},
  number    = {2},
  issn      = {2225-1154},
  doi       = {10.3390/cli5020038},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-198024},
  pages     = {38},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan's vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006-2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006-2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan's already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.},
  language  = {en}
}