@article{FigueiredoKraussSteffanDewenteretal.2019,
  author    = {Figueiredo, Ludmilla and Krauss, Jochen and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento},
  title     = {Understanding extinction debts: spatio-temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research},
  series = {Ecography},
  volume    = {42},
  journal   = {Ecography},
  number    = {12},
  doi       = {10.1111/ecog.04740},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-204859},
  pages     = {1973-1990},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long-term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco-evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio-temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco-evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90\% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life-history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LeidingerVedderCabral2021,
  author    = {Leidinger, Ludwig and Vedder, Daniel and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento},
  title     = {Temporal environmental variation may impose differential selection on both genomic and ecological traits},
  series = {Oikos},
  volume    = {130},
  journal   = {Oikos},
  number    = {7},
  doi       = {10.1111/oik.08172},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-238945},
  pages     = {1100 -- 1115},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The response of populations and species to changing conditions determines how community composition will change functionally, including via trait shifts. Selection from standing variation has been suggested to be more efficient than acquiring new mutations. Yet, studies on community trait composition and trait selection largely focus on phenotypic variation in ecological traits, whereas the underlying genomic traits remain understudied. Using a genome-explicit, niche- and individual-based model, we address the potential interactions between genomic and ecological traits shaping communities under an environmental selective forcing, namely temporal positively autocorrelated environmental fluctuation. In this model, all ecological traits are explicitly coded by the genome. For our experiments, we initialized 90 replicate communities, each with ca 350 initial species, characterized by random genomic and ecological trait combinations, on a 2D spatially explicit landscape with two orthogonal gradients (temperature and resource use). We exposed each community to two contrasting scenarios: without (i.e. static environments) and with temporal variation. We then analyzed emerging compositions of both genomic and ecological traits at the community, population and genomic levels. Communities in variable environments were species poorer than in static environments, and populations more abundant, whereas genomes had lower genetic linkage, mean genetic variation and a non-significant tendency towards higher numbers of genes. The surviving genomes (i.e. those selected by variable environments) coded for enhanced environmental tolerance and smaller biomass, which resulted in faster life cycles and thus also in increased potential for evolutionary rescue. Under temporal environmental variation, larger, less linked genomes retained more variation in mean dispersal ability at the population level than at genomic level, whereas the opposite trend emerged for biomass. Our results provide clues to how sexually-reproducing diploid plant communities might react to variable environments and highlights the importance of genomic traits and their interaction with ecological traits for eco-evolutionary responses to changing climates.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BowlerBjorkmanDornelasetal.2020,
  author    = {Bowler, Diana E. and Bjorkman, Anne D. and Dornelas, Maria and Myers-Smith, Isla H. and Navarro, Laetitia M. and Niamir, Aidin and Supp, Sarah R. and Waldock, Conor and Winter, Marten and Vellend, Mark and Blowes, Shane A. and B{\"o}hning-Gaese, Katrin and Bruelheide, Helge and Elahi, Robin and Ant{\~a}o, Laura H. and Hines, Jes and Isbell, Forest and Jones, Holly P. and Magurran, Anne E. and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Bates, Amanda E.},
  title     = {Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes},
  series = {People and Nature},
  volume    = {2},
  journal   = {People and Nature},
  number    = {2},
  doi       = {10.1002/pan3.10071},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-213634},
  pages     = {380 -- 394},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined. We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world. We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers. Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.},
  language  = {en}
}