@article{KeilPereiraCabraletal.2018, author = {Keil, Petr and Pereira, Henrique M. and Cabral, Juliano S. and Chase, Jonathan M. and May, Felix and Martins, In{\^e}s S. and Winter, Marten}, title = {Spatial scaling of extinction rates: Theory and data reveal nonlinearity and a major upscaling and downscaling challenge}, series = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, volume = {27}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, doi = {10.1111/geb.12669}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-325682}, pages = {2-13}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Aim Biodiversity loss is a key component of biodiversity change and can impact ecosystem services. However, estimation of the loss has focused mostly on per-species extinction rates measured over a limited number of spatial scales, with little theory linking small-scale extirpations to global extinctions. Here, we provide such a link by introducing the relationship between area and the number of extinctions (number of extinctions-area relationship; NxAR) and between area and the proportion of extinct species (proportion of extinctions-area relationship; PxAR). Unlike static patterns, such as the species-area relationship, NxAR and PxAR represent spatial scaling of a dynamic process. We show theoretical and empirical forms of these relationships and we discuss their role in perception and estimation of the current extinction crisis. Location U.S.A., Europe, Czech Republic and Barro Colorado Island (Panama). Time period 1500-2009. Major taxa studied Vascular plants, birds, butterflies and trees. Methods We derived the expected forms of NxAR and PxAR from several theoretical frameworks, including the theory of island biogeography, neutral models and species-area relationships. We constructed NxAR and PxAR from five empirical datasets collected over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Results Although increasing PxAR is theoretically possible, empirical data generally support a decreasing PxAR; the proportion of extinct species decreases with area. In contrast, both theory and data revealed complex relationships between numbers of extinctions and area (NxAR), including nonlinear, unimodal and U-shaped relationships, depending on region, taxon and temporal scale. Main conclusions The wealth of forms of NxAR and PxAR explains why biodiversity change appears scale dependent. Furthermore, the complex scale dependence of NxAR and PxAR means that global extinctions indicate little about local extirpations, and vice versa. Hence, effort should be made to understand and report extinction rates as a scale-dependent problem. In this effort, estimation of scaling relationships such as NxAR and PxAR should be central.}, language = {en} } @article{BowlerBjorkmanDornelasetal.2020, author = {Bowler, Diana E. and Bjorkman, Anne D. and Dornelas, Maria and Myers-Smith, Isla H. and Navarro, Laetitia M. and Niamir, Aidin and Supp, Sarah R. and Waldock, Conor and Winter, Marten and Vellend, Mark and Blowes, Shane A. and B{\"o}hning-Gaese, Katrin and Bruelheide, Helge and Elahi, Robin and Ant{\~a}o, Laura H. and Hines, Jes and Isbell, Forest and Jones, Holly P. and Magurran, Anne E. and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Bates, Amanda E.}, title = {Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes}, series = {People and Nature}, volume = {2}, journal = {People and Nature}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1002/pan3.10071}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-213634}, pages = {380 -- 394}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined. We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world. We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers. Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.}, language = {en} } @article{FigueiredoKraussSteffanDewenteretal.2019, author = {Figueiredo, Ludmilla and Krauss, Jochen and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento}, title = {Understanding extinction debts: spatio-temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research}, series = {Ecography}, volume = {42}, journal = {Ecography}, number = {12}, doi = {10.1111/ecog.04740}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-204859}, pages = {1973-1990}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long-term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco-evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio-temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco-evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90\% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life-history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.}, language = {en} }