@article{ErmertFinkMorseetal.2012,
  author    = {Ermert, Volker and Fink, Andreas H. and Morse, Andrew P. and Paeth, Heiko},
  title     = {The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Malaria Risk due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Africa},
  series = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
  volume    = {120},
  journal   = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
  number    = {1},
  doi       = {10.1289/ehp.1103681},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-135562},
  pages     = {77-84},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model. METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate. RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease. CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{AichAkhundzadahKnuerretal.2017,
  author    = {Aich, Valentin and Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad and Knuerr, Alec and Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed and Hattermann, Fred and Paeth, Heiko and Scanlon, Andrew and Paton, Eva Nora},
  title     = {Climate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations},
  series = {Climate},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Climate},
  number    = {2},
  issn      = {2225-1154},
  doi       = {10.3390/cli5020038},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-198024},
  pages     = {38},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan's vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006-2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006-2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan's already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PaethPollinger2019,
  author    = {Paeth, Heiko and Pollinger, Felix},
  title     = {Changes in mean flow and atmospheric wave activity in the North Atlantic sector},
  series = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  volume    = {145},
  journal   = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  number    = {725},
  doi       = {10.1002/qj.3660},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-208079},
  pages     = {3801-3818},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {In recent years, the midlatitudes are characterized by more intense heatwaves in summer and sometimes severe cold spells in winter that might emanate from changes in atmospheric circulation, including synoptic-scale and planetary wave activity in the midlatitudes. In this study, we investigate the heat and momentum exchange between the mean flow and atmospheric waves in the North Atlantic sector and adjacent continents by means of the physically consistent Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics applied to reanalysis and forced climate model data. In the long-term mean, momentum is transferred from the mean flow to atmospheric waves in the northwest Atlantic region, where cyclogenesis prevails. Further downstream over Europe, eddy fluxes return momentum to the mean flow, sustaining the jet stream against friction. A global climate model is able to reproduce this pattern with high accuracy. Atmospheric variability related to atmospheric wave activity is much more expressed at the intraseasonal rather than the interannual time-scale. Over the last 40 years, reanalyses reveal a northward shift of the jet stream and a weakening of intraseasonal weather variability related to synoptic-scale and planetary wave activity. This pertains to the winter and summer seasons, especially over central Europe, and correlates with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as regional temperature and precipitation. A very similar phenomenon is found in a climate model simulation with business-as-usual scenario, suggesting an anthropogenic trigger in the weakening of intraseasonal weather variability in the midlatitudes.},
  language  = {en}
}