@phdthesis{Kann2020,
  author    = {Kann, Lennart},
  title     = {Statistical Failure Prediction with an Account for Prior Information},
  doi       = {10.25972/OPUS-20504},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-205049},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Prediction intervals are needed in many industrial applications. Frequently in mass production, small subgroups of unknown size with a lifetime behavior differing from the remainder of the population exist. A risk assessment for such a subgroup consists of two steps: i) the estimation of the subgroup size, and ii) the estimation of the lifetime behavior of this subgroup. This thesis covers both steps. An efficient practical method to estimate the size of a subgroup is presented and benchmarked against other methods. A prediction interval procedure which includes prior information in form of a Beta distribution is provided. This scheme is applied to the prediction of binomial and negative binomial counts. The effect of the population size on the prediction of the future number of failures is considered for a Weibull lifetime distribution, whose parameters are estimated from censored field data. Methods to obtain a prediction interval for the future number of failures with unknown sample size are presented. In many applications, failures are reported with a delay. The effects of such a reporting delay on the coverage properties of prediction intervals for the future number of failures are studied. The total failure probability of the two steps can be decomposed as a product probability. One-sided confidence intervals for such a product probability are presented.},
  subject      = {Konfidenzintervall},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Lurz2015,
  author    = {Lurz, Kristina},
  title     = {Confidence and Prediction under Covariates and Prior Information},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-122748},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The purpose of confidence and prediction intervals is to provide an interval estimation for an unknown distribution parameter or the future value of a phenomenon. In many applications, prior knowledge about the distribution parameter is available, but rarely made use of, unless in a Bayesian framework. This thesis provides exact frequentist confidence intervals of minimal volume exploiting prior information. The scheme is applied to distribution parameters of the binomial and the Poisson distribution. The Bayesian approach to obtain intervals on a distribution parameter in form of credibility intervals is considered, with particular emphasis on the binomial distribution. An application of interval estimation is found in auditing, where two-sided intervals of Stringer type are meant to contain the mean of a zero-inflated population. In the context of time series analysis, covariates are supposed to improve the prediction of future values. Exponential smoothing with covariates as an extension of the popular forecasting method exponential smoothing is considered in this thesis. A double-seasonality version of it is applied to forecast hourly electricity load under the use of meteorological covariates. Different kinds of prediction intervals for exponential smoothing with covariates are formulated.},
  subject      = {Konfidenzintervall},
  language  = {en}
}