@phdthesis{Maas2018, author = {Maas, Daniel Peter}, title = {Currency Areas, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-168037}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Hauptgegenstand der Dissertation ist die Analyse der makro{\"o}konomischen Auswirkungen der Gr{\"u}ndung der Eurozone auf die Mitgliedsstaaten. Diese Analyse umfasst zwei Studien, die sich der Fragestellung aus verschiedenen Perspektiven n{\"a}hern. Die erste Studie unternimmt einen Vergleich der Geldpolitik von EZB und von ausgew{\"a}hlten Zentralbanken des Europ{\"a}ischen W{\"a}hrungssystems (EWS). Es wird untersucht, inwiefern sich bei makro{\"o}konomischen Nachfrage- und Angebotsschocks die systematischen Reaktionen der EZB von denen der vier wichtigsten nationalen Zentralbanken des EWS (Deutschland, Frankreich, Italien und Spanien) unterscheiden. In der zweiten Studie werden die Ursachen f{\"u}r den Aufbau interner und externer Ungleichgewichte in Spanien, d.h. auf dem Immobilienmarkt und in der Leistungsbilanz, im Vorfeld der Finanzkrise 2007/08 analysiert. Dabei wird zwischen Spanien-spezifischen und Eurozonen-spezifischen Ursachen unterschieden und deren Erkl{\"a}rungsgehalt empirisch quantifiziert. In der dritten und letzten Studie der Dissertation wird ein preistheoretisches Kreditangebotsmodell entwickelt und empirisch gesch{\"a}tzt. Als Basis f{\"u}r die empirische Sch{\"a}tzung werden Daten des Kreditmarktes f{\"u}r deutsche Unternehmen verwendet. Die methodische Vorgehensweise beinhaltet in allen Studien zeitreihen{\"o}konometrische Ans{\"a}tze wie beispielsweise (Mehrl{\"a}nder-)Vektorautoregressionen (VARs) und Zeitreihenregressionen.}, subject = {Geldpolitik}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Rueth2017, author = {R{\"u}th, Sebastian}, title = {Monetary Policy, Housing Market Dynamics, and the Propagation of Shocks}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-137221}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2017}, abstract = {This dissertation studies the interrelations between housing markets and monetary policy from three different perspectives. First, it identifies housing finance specific shocks and analyzes their impact on the broader economy and, most importantly, the systematic monetary policy reaction to such mortgage sector disturbances. Second, it investigates the implications of the institutional arrangement of a currency union for the potential buildup of a housing bubble in a member country of the monetary union by, inter alia, fostering border-crossing capital flows and ultimately residential investment activity. This dissertation, third, quantifies the effects of autonomous monetary policy shifts on the macroeconomy and, in particular, on housing markets by conditioning on financial sector conditions. From a methodological perspective, the dissertation draws on time-series econometrics like vector autoregressions (VARs) or local projections models.}, subject = {Geldpolitik}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Gareis2012, author = {Gareis, Johannes}, title = {Housing, Consumption Dynamics, and Monetary Policy}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-70842}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2012}, abstract = {This dissertation provides both empirically and theoretically new insights into the economic effects of housing and housing finance within NK DSGE models. Chapter 1 studies the drivers of the recent housing cycle in Ireland by developing and estimating a two-country NK DSGE model of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It finds that housing preference (demand) and technology shocks are the most important drivers of real house prices and real residential investment. In particular, housing preference shocks account for about 87\% of the variation in real house prices and explain about 60\% of the variation in real residential investment. A robustness analysis finally shows that a good part of the variation of the estimated housing preference shocks can be explained by unmodeled demand factors that have been considered in the empirical literature as important determinants of Irish house prices. Chapter 2 deals with the implications of cross-country mortgage market heterogeneity for the EMU. The chapter shows that a change in cross-country institutional characteristics of mortgage markets, such as the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, is likely to be an important driver of an asymmetric development in the housing market and real economic activity of member states. Chapter 3 asks whether monetary policy shocks can trigger boom-bust periods in house prices and create persistent business cycles. The chapter addresses this question by implementing behavioral expectations into an otherwise standard NK DSGE model with housing and a collateral constraint. Key to the approach in chapter 3 is that agents form heterogeneous and biased expectations on future real house prices. Model simulations and impulse response functions suggest that these assumptions have strong implications for the transmission of monetary policy shocks. It is shown that monetary policy shocks might trigger pronounced waves of optimism, respectively, pessimism that drive house prices and the broader economy, all in a self-reinforcing fashion. The chapter shows that in an environment in which behavioral mechanisms play a role an augmented Taylor rule that incorporates house prices is superior, because it limits the scope of self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism to arise. Chapter 4 challenges the view that the observed negative correlation between the Federal Funds rate and the interest rate implied by consumption Euler equations is systematically linked to monetary policy. Using a Monte Carlo experiment based on an estimated NK DSGE model, this chapter shows that risk premium shocks have the capability to drive a wedge between the interest rate targeted by the central bank and the implied Euler equation interest rate, so that the correlation between actual and implied rates is negative. Chapter 4 concludes by arguing that the implementation of collateral constraints tied to housing values is a promising way to strengthen the empirical performance of consumption Euler equations.}, subject = {Kreditmarkt}, language = {en} }