@article{KoehlerBauerDietzetal.2022,
  author    = {Koehler, Jonas and Bauer, Andr{\´e} and Dietz, Andreas J. and Kuenzer, Claudia},
  title     = {Towards forecasting future snow cover dynamics in the European Alps — the potential of long optical remote-sensing time series},
  series = {Remote Sensing},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Remote Sensing},
  number    = {18},
  issn      = {2072-4292},
  doi       = {10.3390/rs14184461},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-288338},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Snow is a vital environmental parameter and dynamically responsive to climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. Snow cover can be monitored at variable spatial scales using Earth Observation (EO) data. Long-lasting remote sensing missions enable the generation of multi-decadal time series and thus the detection of long-term trends. However, there have been few attempts to use these to model future snow cover dynamics. In this study, we, therefore, explore the potential of such time series to forecast the Snow Line Elevation (SLE) in the European Alps. We generate monthly SLE time series from the entire Landsat archive (1985-2021) in 43 Alpine catchments. Positive long-term SLE change rates are detected, with the highest rates (5-8 m/y) in the Western and Central Alps. We utilize this SLE dataset to implement and evaluate seven uni-variate time series modeling and forecasting approaches. The best results were achieved by Random Forests, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.79 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 258 m, Telescope (0.76, 268 m), and seasonal ARIMA (0.75, 270 m). Since the model performance varies strongly with the input data, we developed a combined forecast based on the best-performing methods in each catchment. This approach was then used to forecast the SLE for the years 2022-2029. In the majority of the catchments, the shift of the forecast median SLE level retained the sign of the long-term trend. In cases where a deviating SLE dynamic is forecast, a discussion based on the unique properties of the catchment and past SLE dynamics is required. In the future, we expect major improvements in our SLE forecasting efforts by including external predictor variables in a multi-variate modeling approach.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WangBachoferKoehleretal.2022,
  author    = {Wang, Zhiyuan and Bachofer, Felix and Koehler, Jonas and Huth, Juliane and Hoeser, Thorsten and Marconcini, Mattia and Esch, Thomas and Kuenzer, Claudia},
  title     = {Spatial modelling and prediction with the spatio-temporal matrix: a study on predicting future settlement growth},
  series = {Land},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Land},
  number    = {8},
  issn      = {2073-445X},
  doi       = {10.3390/land11081174},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-281856},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {In the past decades, various Earth observation-based time series products have emerged, which have enabled studies and analysis of global change processes. Besides their contribution to understanding past processes, time series datasets hold enormous potential for predictive modeling and thereby meet the demands of decision makers on future scenarios. In order to further exploit these data, a novel pixel-based approach has been introduced, which is the spatio-temporal matrix (STM). The approach integrates the historical characteristics of a specific land cover at a high temporal frequency in order to interpret the spatial and temporal information for the neighborhood of a given target pixel. The provided information can be exploited with common predictive models and algorithms. In this study, this approach was utilized and evaluated for the prediction of future urban/built-settlement growth. Random forest and multi-layer perceptron were employed for the prediction. The tests have been carried out with training strategies based on a one-year and a ten-year time span for the urban agglomerations of Surat (India), Ho-Chi-Minh City (Vietnam), and Abidjan (Ivory Coast). The slope, land use, exclusion, urban, transportation, hillshade (SLEUTH) model was selected as a baseline indicator for the performance evaluation. The statistical results from the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) demonstrate a good ability of the STM to facilitate the prediction of future settlement growth and its transferability to different cities, with area under the curve (AUC) values greater than 0.85. Compared with SLEUTH, the STM-based model achieved higher AUC in all of the test cases, while being independent of the additional datasets for the restricted and the preferential development areas.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KoehlerKuenzer2020,
  author    = {Koehler, Jonas and Kuenzer, Claudia},
  title     = {Forecasting spatio-temporal dynamics on the land surface using Earth Observation data — a review},
  series = {Remote Sensing},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Remote Sensing},
  number    = {21},
  issn      = {2072-4292},
  doi       = {10.3390/rs12213513},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-216285},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Reliable forecasts on the impacts of global change on the land surface are vital to inform the actions of policy and decision makers to mitigate consequences and secure livelihoods. Geospatial Earth Observation (EO) data from remote sensing satellites has been collected continuously for 40 years and has the potential to facilitate the spatio-temporal forecasting of land surface dynamics. In this review we compiled 143 papers on EO-based forecasting of all aspects of the land surface published in 16 high-ranking remote sensing journals within the past decade. We analyzed the literature regarding research focus, the spatial scope of the study, the forecasting method applied, as well as the temporal and technical properties of the input data. We categorized the identified forecasting methods according to their temporal forecasting mechanism and the type of input data. Time-lagged regressions which are predominantly used for crop yield forecasting and approaches based on Markov Chains for future land use and land cover simulation are the most established methods. The use of external climate projections allows the forecasting of numerical land surface parameters up to one hundred years into the future, while auto-regressive time series modeling can account for intra-annual variances. Machine learning methods have been increasingly used in all categories and multivariate modeling that integrates multiple data sources appears to be more popular than univariate auto-regressive modeling despite the availability of continuously expanding time series data. Regardless of the method, reliable EO-based forecasting requires high-level remote sensing data products and the resulting computational demand appears to be the main reason that most forecasts are conducted only on a local scale. In the upcoming years, however, we expect this to change with further advances in the field of machine learning, the publication of new global datasets, and the further establishment of cloud computing for data processing.},
  language  = {en}
}