@article{DhillonKuebertFlockDahmsetal.2023,
  author    = {Dhillon, Maninder Singh and K{\"u}bert-Flock, Carina and Dahms, Thorsten and Rummler, Thomas and Arnault, Joel and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Ullmann, Tobias},
  title     = {Evaluation of MODIS, Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 data for accurate crop yield predictions: a case study using STARFM NDVI in Bavaria, Germany},
  series = {Remote Sensing},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Remote Sensing},
  number    = {7},
  issn      = {2072-4292},
  doi       = {10.3390/rs15071830},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-311132},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms has provided great potential to generate a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. However, the ability of these synthetic spatiotemporal datasets to accurately map and monitor our planet on a field or regional scale remains underexplored. This study aimed to support future research efforts in estimating crop yields by identifying the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m) and temporal (8 or 16 days) resolutions on a regional scale. The current study explored and discussed the suitability of four different synthetic (Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m, 8 and 16 days) and Sentinel-2 (S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m, 8 and 16 days)) and two real (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 8 and 16 days)) NDVI products combined separately to two widely used crop growth models (CGMs) (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric Light Use Efficiency approach (LUE)) for winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) yield forecasts in Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)) for the year 2019. For WW and OSR, the synthetic products' high spatial and temporal resolution resulted in higher yield accuracies using LUE and WOFOST. The observations of high temporal resolution (8-day) products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 played a significant role in accurately measuring the yield of WW and OSR. For example, L- and S-MOD13Q1 resulted in an R\(^2\) = 0.82 and 0.85, RMSE = 5.46 and 5.01 dt/ha for WW, R\(^2\) = 0.89 and 0.82, and RMSE = 2.23 and 2.11 dt/ha for OSR using the LUE model, respectively. Similarly, for the 8- and 16-day products, the simple LUE model (R\(^2\) = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17\%) required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield and was highly accurate, reliable, and more precise than the complex WOFOST model (R\(^2\) = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35\%) with higher input parameters. Conclusively, both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1, in combination with LUE, were more prominent for predicting crop yields on a regional scale than the 16-day products; however, L-MOD13Q1 was advantageous for generating and exploring the long-term yield time series due to the availability of Landsat data since 1982, with a maximum resolution of 30 m. In addition, this study recommended the further use of its findings for implementing and validating the long-term crop yield time series in different regions of the world.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DhillonDahmsKuebertFlocketal.2023,
  author    = {Dhillon, Maninder Singh and Dahms, Thorsten and K{\"u}bert-Flock, Carina and Liepa, Adomas and Rummler, Thomas and Arnault, Joel and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Ullmann, Tobias},
  title     = {Impact of STARFM on crop yield predictions: fusing MODIS with Landsat 5, 7, and 8 NDVIs in Bavaria Germany},
  series = {Remote Sensing},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Remote Sensing},
  number    = {6},
  issn      = {2072-4292},
  doi       = {10.3390/rs15061651},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-311092},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Rapid and accurate yield estimates at both field and regional levels remain the goal of sustainable agriculture and food security. Hereby, the identification of consistent and reliable methodologies providing accurate yield predictions is one of the hot topics in agricultural research. This study investigated the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for winter wheat (WW) and oil-seed rape (OSR) using a semi-empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)), Germany, from 2001 to 2019. A synthetic normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series was generated and validated by fusing the high spatial resolution (30 m, 16 days) Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) (2001 to 2012), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2012), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) (2013 to 2019) with the coarse resolution of MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days) from 2001 to 2019. Except for some temporal periods (i.e., 2001, 2002, and 2012), the study obtained an R\(^2\) of more than 0.65 and a RMSE of less than 0.11, which proves that the Landsat 8 OLI fused products are of higher accuracy than the Landsat 5 TM products. Moreover, the accuracies of the NDVI fusion data have been found to correlate with the total number of available Landsat scenes every year (N), with a correlation coefficient (R) of +0.83 (between R\(^2\) of yearly synthetic NDVIs and N) and -0.84 (between RMSEs and N). For crop yield prediction, the synthetic NDVI time series and climate elements (such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, transpiration, and solar radiation) are inputted to the LUE model, resulting in an average R\(^2\) of 0.75 (WW) and 0.73 (OSR), and RMSEs of 4.33 dt/ha and 2.19 dt/ha. The yield prediction results prove the consistency and stability of the LUE model for yield estimation. Using the LUE model, accurate crop yield predictions were obtained for WW (R\(^2\) = 0.88) and OSR (R\(^2\) = 0.74). Lastly, the study observed a high positive correlation of R = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R\(^2\) of synthetic accuracy and modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR, respectively.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DhillonDahmsKuebertFlocketal.2023,
  author    = {Dhillon, Maninder Singh and Dahms, Thorsten and Kuebert-Flock, Carina and Rummler, Thomas and Arnault, Joel and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Ullmann, Tobias},
  title     = {Integrating random forest and crop modeling improves the crop yield prediction of winter wheat and oil seed rape},
  series = {Frontiers in Remote Sensing},
  volume    = {3},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Remote Sensing},
  issn      = {2673-6187},
  doi       = {10.3389/frsen.2022.1010978},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-301462},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {The fast and accurate yield estimates with the increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms remain a goal for precision agriculture and food security. However, the consistency and reliability of suitable methodologies that provide accurate crop yield outcomes still need to be explored. The study investigates the coupling of crop modeling and machine learning (ML) to improve the yield prediction of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) and provides examples for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2), Germany, in 2019. The main objectives are to find whether a coupling approach [Light Use Efficiency (LUE) + Random Forest (RF)] would result in better and more accurate yield predictions compared to results provided with other models not using the LUE. Four different RF models [RF1 (input: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)), RF2 (input: climate variables), RF3 (input: NDVI + climate variables), RF4 (input: LUE generated biomass + climate variables)], and one semi-empiric LUE model were designed with different input requirements to find the best predictors of crop monitoring. The results indicate that the individual use of the NDVI (in RF1) and the climate variables (in RF2) could not be the most accurate, reliable, and precise solution for crop monitoring; however, their combined use (in RF3) resulted in higher accuracies. Notably, the study suggested the coupling of the LUE model variables to the RF4 model can reduce the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) from -8\% (WW) and -1.6\% (OSR) and increase the R 2 by 14.3\% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. Moreover, the research compares models yield outputs by inputting three different spatial inputs: Sentinel-2(S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m), Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m), and MOD13Q1 (MODIS) (250 m). The S-MOD13Q1 data has relatively improved the performance of models with higher mean R 2 [0.80 (WW), 0.69 (OSR)], and lower RRMSE (\%) (9.18, 10.21) compared to L-MOD13Q1 (30 m) and MOD13Q1 (250 m). Satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature are found to be the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crops.},
  language  = {en}
}