@article{PaethPaxianSeinetal.2017,
  author    = {Paeth, Heiko and Paxian, Andreas and Sein, Dimitry V. and Jacob, Daniela and Panitz, Hans-J{\"u}rgen and Warscher, Michael and Fink, Andreas H. and Kunstmann, Harald and Breil, Marcus and Engel, Thomas and Krause, Andreas and Toedter, Julian and Ahrens, Bodo},
  title     = {Decadal and multi-year predictability of the West African monsoon and the role of dynamical downscaling},
  series = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
  volume    = {26},
  journal   = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
  number    = {4},
  doi       = {10.1127/metz/2017/0811},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-172018},
  pages     = {363-377},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system. In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and landsurface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Paxian2012,
  author    = {Paxian, Andreas},
  title     = {Future changes in climate means and extremes in the Mediterranean region deduced from a regional climate model},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-72155},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {The Mediterranean area reveals a strong vulnerability to future climate change due to a high exposure to projected impacts and a low capacity for adaptation highlighting the need for robust regional or local climate change projections, especially for extreme events strongly affecting the Mediterranean environment. The prevailing study investigates two major topics of the Mediterranean climate variability: the analysis of dynamical downscaling of present-day and future temperature and precipitation means and extremes from global to regional scale and the comprehensive investigation of temperature and rainfall extremes including the estimation of uncertainties and the comparison of different statistical methods for precipitation extremes. For these investigations, several observational datasets of CRU, E-OBS and original stations are used as well as ensemble simulations of the regional climate model REMO driven by the coupled global general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and applying future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and land degradation scenarios.},
  subject      = {Mittelmeerraum},
  language  = {en}
}