@phdthesis{Vogt2014, author = {Vogt, Gernot}, title = {Future changes and signal analyses of climate means and extremes in the Mediterranean Area deduced from a CMIP3 multi-model ensemble}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-117369}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Considering its social, economic and natural conditions the Mediterranean Area is a highly vulnerable region by designated affections of climate change. Furthermore, its climatic characteristics are subordinated to high natural variability and are steered by various elements, leading to strong seasonal alterations. Additionally, General Circulation Models project compelling trends in specific climate variables within this region. These circumstances recommend this region for the scientific analyses conducted within this study. Based on the data of the CMIP3 database, the fundamental aim of this study is a detailed investigation of the total variability and the accompanied uncertainty, which superpose these trends, in the projections of temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure by GCMs and their specific realizations. Special focus in the whole study is dedicated to the German model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Following this ambition detailed trends and mean values are calculated and displayed for meaningful time periods and compared to reanalysis data of ERA40 and NCEP. To provide quantitative comparison the mentioned data are interpolated to a common 3x3° grid. The total amount of variability is separated in its contributors by the application of an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). For individual GCMs and their ensemble-members this is done with the application of a 1-way ANOVA, separating a treatment common to all ensemble-members and variability perturbating the signal given by different initial conditions. With the 2-way ANOVA the projections of numerous models and their realizations are analysed and the total amount of variability is separated into a common treatment effect, a linear bias between the models, an interaction coefficient and the residuals. By doing this, the study is fulfilled in a very detailed approach, by considering yearly and seasonal variations in various reasonable time periods of 1961-2000 to match up with the reanalysis data, from 1961-2050 to provide a transient time period, 2001-2098 with exclusive regard on future simulations and 1901-2098 to comprise a time period of maximum length. The statistical analyses are conducted for regional-averages on the one hand and with respect to individual grid-cells on the other hand. For each of these applications the SRES scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 are utilized. Furthermore, the spatial approach of the ANOVA is substituted by a temporal approach detecting the temporal development of individual variables. Additionally, an attempt is made to enlarge the signal by applying selected statistical methods. In the detailed investigation it becomes evident, that the different parameters (i.e. length of temporal period, geographic location, climate variable, season, scenarios, models, etc…) have compelling impact on the results, either in enforcing or weakening them by different combinations. This holds on the one hand for the means and trends but also on the other hand for the contributions of the variabilities affecting the uncertainty and the signal. While temperature is a climate variable showing strong signals across these parameters, for precipitation mainly the noise comes to the fore, while for sea-level pressure a more differentiated result manifests. In turn, this recommends the distinguished consideration of the individual parameters in climate impact studies and processes in model generation, as the affecting parameters also provide information about the linkage within the system. Finally, an investigation of extreme precipitation is conducted, implementing the variables of the total amount of heavy precipitation, the frequency of heavy-precipitation events, the percentage of this heavy precipitation to overall precipitation and the mean daily intensity from events of heavy precipitation. Each time heavy precipitation is defined to exceed the 95th percentile of overall precipitation. Consecutively mean values of these variables are displayed for ECHAM5/MPI-OM and the multi-model mean and climate sensitivities, by means of their difference between their average of the past period of 1981-2000 and the average of one of the future periods of 2046-2065 or 2081-2100. Following this investigation again an ANOVA is conducted providing a quantitative measurement of the severity of change of trends in heavy precipitation across several GCMs. Besides it is a difficult task to account for extreme precipitation by GCMs, it is noteworthy that the investigated models differ highly in their projections, resulting partially in a more smoothed and meaningful multi-model mean. Seasonal alterations of the strength of this behaviour are quantitatively supported by the ANOVA.}, subject = {Klimaschwankung}, language = {en} } @misc{Tworuschka2013, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Tworuschka, Miriam}, title = {Israel Jacobson und die Entstehung des Reformjudentums in Seesen : Eine nieders{\"a}chsische Kleinstadt und ihr Umgang mit diesem Thema nach 1945}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-94581}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Die Untersuchung besch{\"a}ftigt sich mit der Entwicklung der Berichterstattung {\"u}ber das Judentum in Seesen. Das Hauptaugenmerk liegt auf auf Israel Jacobson, der einst Begr{\"u}nder des Reformjudentums in Seesen war, in Vergessenheit geriet und seit einigen Jahren wieder von einigen engagierten Seesenern mit Ausstellungen, B{\"u}chern und Vortr{\"a}gen geehrt wird. Zudem stellt sich der Arbeit die Frage, wie es zu dem "Vergessen" dieser ber{\"u}hmten Seesener Pers{\"o}nlichkeit kam und was zu einem Umdenken gef{\"u}hrt haben k{\"o}nnte.}, subject = {Reformjudentum}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Specht2019, author = {Specht, Sebastian}, title = {Stratigraphie und Tektonik im Grossraum Massbach (Lauer) zwischen den Naturparks Bayerische Rh{\"o}n und Hassberge}, doi = {10.25972/OPUS-16302}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-163022}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Diese Arbeit stellt die Ergebnisse der stratigraphischen und tektonischen Aufnahme des Blattes 5827 Maßbach vor. Sie erfolgte im Rahmen der geologischen Landesaufnahme von Bayern 1:25.000 sowie im Auftrag des Bayerischen Landesamts f{\"u}r Umwelt und beruht auf einer geologischen Detailkartierung im Maßstab 1:10.000. Die wesentlichen Ergebnisse sind folglich in der Geologischen Karte 1:25.000 und in der Strukturkarte 1:50.000 dargestellt. Zur Aufgabenstellung geh{\"o}rten ebenfalls eine moderne Erfassung und Darstellung der Schichtenfolge unter stratigraphischen und faziellen Gesichtspunkten sowie die Aufnahme und Interpretation geologischer Strukturen und deren Einbindung in den regionalen Rahmen (Anlage 7). Dieser Arbeit kommt somit nicht nur akademisches Interesse zu. Vielmehr ist sie auch f{\"u}r angewandte Fachbereiche wesentlich: u.a. f{\"u}r Hydrogeologie, Geothermie oder f{\"u}r Fragen der Raumplanung. Das Kartenblatt 5827 Maßbach liegt im nord{\"o}stlichen Unterfranken im Norden Bayerns. Die n{\"a}chstgr{\"o}ßere Stadt, s{\"u}dlich des Blattgebietes, ist Schweinfurt. Das Gebiet zeigt einen Ausschnitt des s{\"u}dwestdeutschen Schichtstufenlandes innerhalb der S{\"u}dwestdeutschen Großscholle sensu CARL{\´E} (1955). Geomorphologen rechnen es der Hochfl{\"a}che der „Schweinfurter Rh{\"o}n" zu. Ein naturr{\"a}umlicher {\"U}berblick {\"u}ber Geographie, Geologie, Hydrogeologie, Rohstoffgeologie und Bodenkunde sowie ein erdgeschichtlicher Abriss werden im ersten Teil der Arbeit (S. 2-15) gegeben. Die Kartierung erfolgte als Lesesteinkartierung; denn die Aufschlussverh{\"a}ltnisse waren schlecht. Auch existieren nur wenige auswertbare Bohrungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt der zweite Teil der Arbeit die zu Tage ausstreichende mesozoische Schichtenfolge vor (S.16-76). Die Schichtenfolge geh{\"o}rt ausschließlich in die Trias, reicht vom Unteren Muschelkalk bis zum Unteren Gipskeuper und umfasst etwa 270 bis 280 Meter. Hinzu kommen verschiedene quart{\"a}re Sedimente geringer M{\"a}chtigkeit. Der dritte Teil der Arbeit (S. 77-95) befasst sich mit den Lagerungsverh{\"a}ltnissen und der tektonischen Zergliederung des Gebietes. Das tektonische Relief auf Blatt 5827 Maßbach misst etwa 260-270 m. Pr{\"a}gendes Element ist der Kissingen-Haßfurter Sattel, dessen Sattelachse das Blattgebiet von NW nach SE quert. Im SW-Quadranten ist die in S{\"u}dwestdeutschland bedeutsame Kissingen-Haßfurter-St{\"o}rungszone wirksam Im regionalen Rahmen verbinden sich eine Vielzahl von nachgewiesenen tektonischen Elementen zu sich {\"u}berlagernden tektonischen Strukturen. Deren Ausgestaltung verlief mehrphasig und sie erhielten ihre heute bestehende Form wohl durch die Fernwirkung der alpidischen Orogenese. Die Anlage der tektonischen Hauptelemente hingegen reicht wahrscheinlich bis in die ausgehende variszidische Gebirgsbildung zur{\"u}ck. Die zusammen-fassende Analyse und Darstellung der Ergebnisse f{\"u}hrt in dieser Arbeit zur Einarbeitung des Blattes 5827 Maßbach in den regionalen stratigraphischen wie tektonischen Rahmen der umliegenden Bl{\"a}tter der GK 25.}, subject = {Geologie}, language = {de} } @techreport{Segueda2015, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Segueda, Wendpanga Eric}, title = {Imported Religions, Colonialism and the Situation of Women in Africa}, edition = {1}, issn = {2199-4315}, doi = {10.25972/OPUS-12240}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-122400}, pages = {24}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Women are a key to development, and gender is crucial to development policies. However, Western development organisations often promote gender equality as something valued in the West, or even as a new idea altogether, rather than taking the time to research how it was rooted in African societies. The same holds true for many Africans who frequently argue that gender equality is a Western idea. This paper intents to show that gender equality or complementarity is not an altogether new phenomenon to African societies, but that it existed in pre-colonial Africa. Raising awareness on this within African societies can help to put in place strategies for gender equality and facilitate change from within.}, subject = {Afrika}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schoebel2013, author = {Sch{\"o}bel, Sebastian}, title = {Die Rh{\"o}nschranke: Beschreibung einer Dialektgrenze zwischen dem Mitteldeutschen und dem Oberdeutschen}, isbn = {978-3-923959-99-0}, doi = {10.25972/OPUS-10568}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-105681}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Der Regierungsbezirk Unterfranken, das Untersuchungsgebiet des Sprachatlas von Unterfranken (SUF), ist dialektologisch dadurch gekennzeichnet, dass durch ihn von S{\"u}dwesten nach Nordosten (Spessart, Rh{\"o}n) die Grenze zwischen dem Oberdeutschen und dem Mitteldeutschen verl{\"a}uft. Diese Grenze wird im n{\"o}rdlichen Teil Rh{\"o}nschranke genannt. Allerdings gibt es keine scharfen Dialektgrenzen, sondern nur {\"U}bergangsgebiete zwischen zwei dialektalen Kernr{\"a}umen. {\"U}bergangsgebiete sind dadurch gekennzeichnet, dass Merkmale eines (Kern-)Raums ab- und die des anderen zunehmen. Auf der Basis des SUF-Materials wird dieses {\"U}bergangsgebiet beschrieben und dialektgeographisch interpretiert.}, subject = {Sprachgrenze}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Schwindt2013, author = {Schwindt, Daniel}, title = {Permafrost in ventilated talus slopes below the timberline - A multi-methodological study on the ground thermal regime and its impact on the temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of permafrost at three sites in the Swiss Alps}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-90099}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2013}, abstract = {In the central Alps permafrost can be expected above 2300 m a.s.l., at altitudes where mean annual air temperatures are below -1 °C. Isolated permafrost occurrences can be detected in north-exposed talus slopes, far below the timberline, where mean annual air temperatures are positive. Driving factors are assumed to be a low income of solar radiation, a thick organic layer with high insulation capacities as well as the thermally induced chimney effect. Aim of this study is to achieve a deeper understanding of the factors determining the site-specific thermal regime, as well as the spatially limited and temporally highly variable permafrost occurrences in vegetated talus slopes. Three supercooled talus slopes in the Swiss Alps were chosen for investigation. Substantially different characteristics were a central criterion in the selection of study sites. Located in the Upper Engadin, climatic conditions, altitude as well as dimensions of the talus slopes are comparable for the study sites Val Bever and Val Susauna; major differences are rooted in the nature of talus substrate and in humus- and vegetation distribution. Characteristics of the Br{\"u}eltobel site, located in the Appenzeller Alps, diverge with regard to climatic conditions, altitude and dimensions of the talus slope; humus- and vegetation compositions are comparable to the Val Susauna site. Confirmation and characterisation of ground ice is accomplished by the application of electrical resistivity and seismic refraction tomography. The estimation of the spatial permafrost distribution is based on quasi-3D resistivity imaging. For the confirmation of permafrost and the analysis of its temporal variability electrical resistivity monitoring arrays were constructed and installed at all study sites, to allow year-round measurements. In addition to resistivity monitoring, the - up to now - first seismic refraction tomography winter monitoring was conducted at the Val Susauna to analyse the permafrost evolution during the winter half-year. Investigations of the ground thermal regime were based on the analysis of temperature logger data. Besides recording air- and ground surface temperatures, focus was set on the temperature evolution in vents and in the organic layer. To analyse the relationship between permafrost distribution on the one hand and humus- and vegetation distribution on the other hand, an extensive mapping of humus characteristics and vegetation composition was conducted at Val Susauna. The existence of permafrost could be proven at all study sites. Spatially, permafrost bodies show a narrow transition to neighbouring, unfrozen areas. As observed at Val Susauna, the permafrost distribution strongly correlates with areas with exceptionally thick organic layer, high percentages of mosses and lichens in the undergrowth and dwarf grown trees. The temporal variability of permafrost has proven to be exceptionally high, with the magnitude of seasonal variations distinctly exceeding intra-annual changes. Thereby, the winter season is characterised by a significant supercooling. During snowmelt a growth in volumetric ice content is induced by refreezing of percolating meltwater on the supercooled talus. The results confirmed the fundamental influence of the chimney effect on the existence and temporal variability of permafrost in talus slopes. Divergences in the effectiveness of the thermal regime were detected between the study sites. These are based on differences in the nature of talus material, humus characteristics and vegetation composition. During summer, the organic material is usually dry at the daytime, inducing a high insulation capability and a protection of the subsurface against high atmospheric temperatures. Bouldery talus slopes typically show an organic layer that is fragmented by large boulders, which induces a strongly reduced insulation capability and allows an efficient heat exchange by convective airflow and percolating precipitation water. In the winter half-year, the thermal conductivity of the organic layer increases massively under moist or frozen conditions, allowing an efficient, conductive cooling of the talus material. The convective cooling in bouldery talus slopes affects an earlier onset and a higher magnitude of supercooling than under consistent humus conditions. Here, conductive heat flow is dominant and the cooling in autumn is buffered by a prolonged zero curtain. The snow cover has proven to be incapable of prohibiting an efficient supercooling of the talus slope in winter, almost independent from thickness.}, subject = {Engadin}, language = {en} } @book{Schwemmer2017, author = {Schwemmer, Marius}, title = {Studien zu Genealogie, Biographie und Werk von Joseph Willibald Michl (1745-1816)}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-145271}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2017}, abstract = {„Joseph Willibald Michl - Ein Komponist von vielem Kopfe", so schrieb einst Christian Friedrich Daniel Schubart {\"u}ber den wohl bedeutendsten Spross einer Musikerfamilie, die {\"u}ber mindestens vier Generationen das Musikgeschehen der Oberpfalz, Bayerns und dar{\"u}ber hinaus mitgestaltete. Neben dem deutschen Dichter, Organisten, Komponisten und Journalisten Schubart, sprechen sich auch andere Zeitgenossen wie der englische Musikforscher Charles Burney oder der Historiker und Schriftsteller Lorenz von Westenrieder sprechen sich lobend {\"u}ber den „Churf{\"u}rstlichen Kammer-Compositeur" von Maximilian III. Joseph aus. Diese Studie untersucht die Genealogie, die Biographie und das Werk von Joseph Willibald Michl anhand neuer Quellen und schließt dar{\"u}ber hinaus L{\"u}cken in seinem Curriculum Vitae. Erstmals wird ein systematisch-thematisches Werkverzeichnis des Komponisten vorgelegt, um das heute noch greifbare musikalische Œuvre zu erfassen bzw. zur Kl{\"a}rung fraglicher oder offensichtlicher Falschzuweisungen beizutragen. In einer Analyse repr{\"a}sentativ ausgew{\"a}hlter Werke der von Michl verwenden musikalischen Gattungen wird die Kompositionsart und Musiksprache Michls n{\"a}her betrachtet}, subject = {Michl, Joseph Willibald}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Schlereth2012, author = {Schlereth, Bernd Johannes}, title = {Das Petitionswesen im K{\"o}nigreich Bayern - Eine Studie zu den Grundlagen, dem politischen Stellenwert und der parlamentarischen Praxis unter besonderer Ber{\"u}cksichtigung der Erschließung der einschl{\"a}gigen parlamentarischen Quellen mittels einer EDV-Datenbank}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-108508}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Die vorliegende Arbeit besch{\"a}ftigt sich mit der historischen Genese des Gewohnheitsrechts des Einzelnen, Petitionen an die Obrigkeit bzw. an die Staatsregierung einzureichen. Der besondere Fokus liegt hierbei auf den Zusammenh{\"a}ngen im modernen Bayern. Die Bedeutung des Petitionswesens f{\"u}r die parlamentarische Entwicklung im K{\"o}nigreich Bayern stellt den zentralen Forschunggegenstand dar. Die dieser Studie zugrundeliegende Sichtung umfangreicher Archivalien des Hauptstaatsarchivs M{\"u}nchen geht einher mit der Auswertung und der kritischen Beleuchtung eines Forschungsprojekts zum vorliegenden Thema, welches an der Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg durchgef{\"u}hrt wurde.}, subject = {Petitionswesen}, language = {de} } @misc{Schaper2018, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Schaper, Anna-Katharina}, title = {Conquering China's Second-Tier Cities: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between a City's Degree of Internationalization and Foreign Companies' Market Entry Decisions in China's Second-Tier Cities}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-161329}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2018}, abstract = {China's emerging second-tier cities attract more and more foreign companies that are looking for business opportunities. Although much has been written about companies' internationalization strategies, including companies' market entry decisions and market entry mode strategies, research on the relationship between a city's degree of internationalization and foreign companies' market entry decisions and market entry mode strategies in second-tier cities in China is still relatively scarce. Thus, the central research question of this study is: Why and how does a second-tier city's degree of internationalization influence foreign companies' market entry decisions and market entry mode strategies in second-tier China? This study is based on a qualitative research approach; an embedded multiple-case study is applied and interviews with two different target groups are conducted. The first target group consists of foreign companies having established business operations in China's second-tier cities directly and have had no previous business operations in first-tier cites. The second group is made up of foreign companies that initially operated in first-tier China, and then moved to second-tier cities. The company sample compromises small- and medium-sized foreign companies with various industry backgrounds and market entry modes in Chengdu and Chongqing. Since 2015, Maxxelli has been publishing its China International City Index (CICI) on a yearly basis in which it measures and compares China's cities' degree of internationalization. Because Maxxelli revised this year's CICI methodology comprehensively, this study also aims at feedback to improve the overall CICI. This study concludes that a second-tier city's degree of internationalization is particularly important to foreign companies having first set up in Chinese first-tier cities. Companies having established themselves in second-tier cities directly, do not pay a lot of direct attention to a city's degree of internationalization and tend to base their market entry decisions more on business opportunities they identify in a city. In addition, this study argues that in most cases a city's degree of internationalization does not influence the type of market entry mode companies choose to enter second-tier China.}, subject = {China}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Roedder2014, author = {R{\"o}dder, Tobias}, title = {Spatio-temporal assessment of dynamics in discontinuous mountain permafrost - Investigation of small-scale influences on the ground thermal regime and active layer processes during snow melt}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-90629}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The discontinuous mountain permafrost zone is characterized by its heterogeneous distribution of frozen ground and a small-scale variability of the ground thermal regime. Large parts of these areas are covered by glacial till and sediments that were exposed after the recession of the glaciers since the 19th century. As response to changed climatic conditions permafrost-affected areas will lose their ability as sediment storage and on the contrary, they will act as source areas for unconsolidated debris. Along with modified precipitation patterns the degradation of the discontinuous mountain permafrost zone will (temporarily) increase its predisposition for mass movement processes and thus has to be monitored in a differentiated way. Therefore, the spatio-temporal dynamics of frozen ground are assessed in this study based on results obtained in three glacier forefields in the Engadin (Swiss Alps) and at the Zugspitze (German Alps). Sophisticated techniques are required to uncover structural differences in the subsurface. Thus, the applicability of advanced geophysical methods is tested for alpine environments and proved by the good 3D-delineation of a permafrost body and by the detection of detailed processes in the active layer during snow melt. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) approaches (quasi-3D, daily monitoring) reveal their capabilities to detect subsurface resistivity changes both, in space and time. Processes and changes in regard to liquid water content and ice content are observed to exist at short distances even though the active layer is not subject to a considerable thickening over the past 7 years. The stability of the active layer is verified by borehole temperature data. No synchronous trend is recognized in permafrost temperatures and together with multi-annual electrical resistivity data they indicate degradation and aggradation processes to occur at the same time. Different heat transfer mechanisms, especially during winter, are recognized by means of temperature sensors above, at, and beneath the surface. Based on surface and borehole temperature data the snow cover is assessed as the major controlling factor for the thermal regime on a local scale. Beyond that, the debris size of the substrate, which modifies the snow cover and regulates air exchange processes above the ground, plays a crucial role as an additional buffer layer. A fundamental control over the stability of local permafrost patches is attributed to the ice-rich transient layer at the base of the active layer. The refreezing of melt water in spring is illustrated with diurnal ERT monitoring data from glacier forefield Murt{\`e}l. Based on these ERT and borehole temperature data a conceptual model of active layer processes between autumn and spring is developed. The latent heat that is inherent in the transient layer protects the permafrost beneath from additional energy input from the surface as long as the refreezing of melt water in spring prevails and sufficient ice is build up each spring. Permafrost sites without a transient layer show considerably higher temperatures at their table and are more prone to degradation in the years and decades ahead. As main investigation area a glacier forefield beneath the summits of Piz Murt{\`e}l and Piz Corvatsch in the Swiss Engadin was chosen. It is located west of the well-known rock glacier Murt{\`e}l. Here, a permafrost body inside and adjacent to the lateral moraine was investigated and could be delineated very well. In the surrounding glacier forefield no further indications of permafrost occurrence could be made. Geophysical data and temperature values from the surface and from a permafrost borehole were compared with long-term data from proximate glacier forefield Muragl (Engadin). Results from both sites show a considerable stability of the active layer depth in summer while at the same time geophysical data demonstrate annual changes in the amount of liquid water content and ice content in the course of years. A third investigation area is located in the German Alps. The Zugspitzplatt is a high mountain valley with considerably more precipitation and thicker snow cover compared to both Swiss sites. In close proximity to the present glacier and at a large talus slope beneath the summit crest ground ice could be observed. The high subsurface resistivity values and comparable data from existing studies at the Zugspitze may indicate the presence of sedimentary ice in the subsurface of the karstified Zugspitzplatt. Based on these complementary data from geophysical and temperature measurements as well as geomorphological field mapping the development of permafrost in glacier forefields under climate change conditions is analyzed with cooperation partners from the SPCC project. Ground temperature simulations forced with long-term climatological data are modeled to assess future permafrost development in glacier forefield Murt{\`e}l. Results suggest that permafrost is stable as long as the ice-rich layer between the active layer and the permafrost table exists. After a tipping point is reached, the disintegration of frozen ground starts to proceed rapidly from the top.}, subject = {Engadin}, language = {en} }