Dokument-ID Dokumenttyp Verfasser/Autoren Herausgeber Haupttitel Abstract Auflage Verlagsort Verlag Erscheinungsjahr Seitenzahl Schriftenreihe Titel Schriftenreihe Bandzahl ISBN Quelle der Hochschulschrift Konferenzname Quelle:Titel Quelle:Jahrgang Quelle:Heftnummer Quelle:Erste Seite Quelle:Letzte Seite URN DOI Abteilungen OPUS4-3914 Wissenschaftlicher Artikel Marohn, Frank Global sufficiency of extreme order statistics in location models of Weibull type In Janssen and Reiss (1988) it was shown that in a location model of a Weibull type sample with shape parameter -1 < a < 1 the k(n) lower extremes are asymptotically local sufficient. In the present paper we show that even global sufficiency holds. Moreover, it turns out that convergence of the given statistical experiments in the deficiency metric does not only hold for compact parameter sets but for the whole real line. 1991 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-47874 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-3913 Teil eines Buches Falk, Michael; Marohn, Frank Laws of small numbers : Some applications to conditional curve estimation No abstract available 1992 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-45841 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-6246 Dissertation Tichy, Diana On the Fragility Index The Fragility Index captures the amount of risk in a stochastic system of arbitrary dimension. Its main mathematical tool is the asymptotic distribution of exceedance counts within the system which can be derived by use of multivariate extreme value theory. Thereby the basic assumption is that data comes from a distribution which lies in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution. The Fragility Index itself and its extension can serve as a quantitative measure for tail dependence in arbitrary dimensions. It is linked to the well known extremal index for stochastic processes as well the extremal coefficient of an extreme value distribution. 2011 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-73610 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-6327 Dissertation Hofmann, Martin Contributions to Extreme Value Theory in the Space C[0,1] We introduce some mathematical framework for extreme value theory in the space of continuous functions on compact intervals and provide basic definitions and tools. Continuous max-stable processes on [0,1] are characterized by their "distribution functions" G which can be represented via a norm on function space, called D-norm. The high conformity of this setup with the multivariate case leads to the introduction of a functional domain of attraction approach for stochastic processes, which is more general than the usual one based on weak convergence. We also introduce the concept of "sojourn time transformation" and compare several types of convergence on function space. Again in complete accordance with the uni- or multivariate case it is now possible to get functional generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) W via W = 1 + log(G) in the upper tail. In particular, this enables us to derive characterizations of the functional domain of attraction condition for copula processes. Moreover, we investigate the sojourn time above a high threshold of a continuous stochastic process. It turns out that the limit, as the threshold increases, of the expected sojourn time given that it is positive, exists if the copula process corresponding to Y is in the functional domain of attraction of a max-stable process. If the process is in a certain neighborhood of a generalized Pareto process, then we can replace the constant threshold by a general threshold function and we can compute the asymptotic sojourn time distribution. 2012 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-74405 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-6688 Dissertation Paxian, Andreas Future changes in climate means and extremes in the Mediterranean region deduced from a regional climate model The Mediterranean area reveals a strong vulnerability to future climate change due to a high exposure to projected impacts and a low capacity for adaptation highlighting the need for robust regional or local climate change projections, especially for extreme events strongly affecting the Mediterranean environment. The prevailing study investigates two major topics of the Mediterranean climate variability: the analysis of dynamical downscaling of present-day and future temperature and precipitation means and extremes from global to regional scale and the comprehensive investigation of temperature and rainfall extremes including the estimation of uncertainties and the comparison of different statistical methods for precipitation extremes. For these investigations, several observational datasets of CRU, E-OBS and original stations are used as well as ensemble simulations of the regional climate model REMO driven by the coupled global general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and applying future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and land degradation scenarios. 2012 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-72155 Institut für Geographie und Geologie OPUS4-12716 Dissertation Aulbach, Stefan Contributions to Extreme Value Theory in Finite and Infinite Dimensions: With a Focus on Testing for Generalized Pareto Models Extreme value theory aims at modeling extreme but rare events from a probabilistic point of view. It is well-known that so-called generalized Pareto distributions, which are briefly reviewed in Chapter 1, are the only reasonable probability distributions suited for modeling observations above a high threshold, such as waves exceeding the height of a certain dike, earthquakes having at least a certain intensity, and, after applying a simple transformation, share prices falling below some low threshold. However, there are cases for which a generalized Pareto model might fail. Therefore, Chapter 2 derives certain neighborhoods of a generalized Pareto distribution and provides several statistical tests for these neighborhoods, where the cases of observing finite dimensional data and of observing continuous functions on [0,1] are considered. By using a notation based on so-called D-norms it is shown that these tests consistently link both frameworks, the finite dimensional and the functional one. Since the derivation of the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics requires certain technical restrictions, Chapter 3 analyzes these assumptions in more detail. It provides in particular some examples of distributions that satisfy the null hypothesis and of those that do not. Since continuous copula processes are crucial tools for the functional versions of the proposed tests, it is also discussed whether those copula processes actually exist for a given set of data. Moreover, some practical advice is given how to choose the free parameters incorporated in the test statistics. Finally, a simulation study in Chapter 4 compares the in total three different test statistics with another test found in the literature that has a similar null hypothesis. This thesis ends with a short summary of the results and an outlook to further open questions. 2015 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-127162 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-13661 Dissertation Zott, Maximilian Extreme Value Theory in Higher Dimensions - Max-Stable Processes and Multivariate Records Die Extremwerttheorie behandelt die stochastische Modellierung seltener und extremer Ereignisse. Während fundamentale Theorien in der klassischen Stochastik, wie etwa die Gesetze der großen Zahlen oder der zentrale Grenzwertsatz das asymptotische Verhalten der Summe von Zufallsvariablen untersucht, liegt in der Extremwerttheorie der Fokus auf dem Maximum oder dem Minimum einer Menge von Beobachtungen. Die Grenzverteilung des normierten Stichprobenmaximums unter einer Folge von unabhängigen und identisch verteilten Zufallsvariablen kann durch sogenannte max-stabile Verteilungen charakterisiert werden. In dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Aspekte der Theorie der max-stabilen Zufallsvektoren und stochastischen Prozesse behandelt. Insbesondere wird der Begriff der 'Differenzierbarkeit in Verteilung' eines max-stabilen Prozesses eingeführt und untersucht. Ferner werden 'verallgemeinerte max-lineare Modelle' eingeführt, um einen bekannten max-stabilen Zufallsvektor durch einen max-stabilen Prozess zu interpolieren. Darüber hinaus wird der Zusammenhang von extremwerttheoretischen Methoden mit der Theorie der multivariaten Rekorde hergestellt. Insbesondere werden sogenannte 'vollständige' und 'einfache' Rekorde eingeführt, und deren asymptotisches Verhalten untersucht. 2016 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-136614 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-21214 Dissertation Wisheckel, Florian Some Applications of D-Norms to Probability and Statistics This cumulative dissertation is organized as follows: After the introduction, the second chapter, based on "Asymptotic independence of bivariate order statistics" (2017) by Falk and Wisheckel, is an investigation of the asymptotic dependence behavior of the components of bivariate order statistics. We find that the two components of the order statistics become asymptotically independent for certain combinations of (sequences of) indices that are selected, and it turns out that no further assumptions on the dependence of the two components in the underlying sample are necessary. To establish this, an explicit representation of the conditional distribution of bivariate order statistics is derived. Chapter 3 is from "Conditional tail independence in archimedean copula models" (2019) by Falk, Padoan and Wisheckel and deals with the conditional distribution of an Archimedean copula, conditioned on one of its components. We show that its tails are independent under minor conditions on the generator function, even if the unconditional tails were dependent. The theoretical findings are underlined by a simulation study and can be generalized to Archimax copulas. "Generalized pareto copulas: A key to multivariate extremes" (2019) by Falk, Padoan and Wisheckel lead to Chapter 4 where we introduce a nonparametric approach to estimate the probability that a random vector exceeds a fixed threshold if it follows a Generalized Pareto copula. To this end, some theory underlying the concept of Generalized Pareto distributions is presented first, the estimation procedure is tested using a simulation and finally applied to a dataset of air pollution parameters in Milan, Italy, from 2002 until 2017. The fifth chapter collects some additional results on derivatives of D-norms, in particular a condition for the existence of directional derivatives, and multivariate spacings, specifically an explicit formula for the second-to-last bivariate spacing. 2020 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-212140 10.25972/OPUS-21214 Institut für Mathematik OPUS4-20742 Dissertation Fuller, Timo Contributions to the Multivariate Max-Domain of Attraction This thesis covers a wide range of results for when a random vector is in the max-domain of attraction of max-stable random vector. It states some new theoretical results in D-norm terminology, but also gives an explaination why most approaches to multivariate extremes are equivalent to this specific approach. Then it covers new methods to deal with high-dimensional extremes, ranging from dimension reduction to exploratory methods and explaining why the Huessler-Reiss model is a powerful parametric model in multivariate extremes on par with the multivariate Gaussian distribution in multivariate regular statistics. It also gives new results for estimating and inferring the multivariate extremal dependence structure, strategies for choosing thresholds and compares the behavior of local and global threshold approaches. The methods are demonstrated in an artifical simulation study, but also on German weather data. 2020 urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-207422 10.25972/OPUS-20742 Institut für Mathematik