TY - JOUR A1 - Wischnewsky, Manfred A1 - Schwentner, Lukas A1 - Diessner, Joachim A1 - De Gregorio, Amelie A1 - Joukhadar, Ralf A1 - Davut, Dayan A1 - Salmen, Jessica A1 - Bekes, Inga A1 - Kiesel, Matthias A1 - Müller-Reiter, Max A1 - Blettner, Maria A1 - Wolters, Regine A1 - Janni, Wolfgang A1 - Kreienberg, Rolf A1 - Wöckel, Achim A1 - Ebner, Florian T1 - BRENDA-Score, a hghly significant, internally and externally validated prognostic marker for metastatic recurrence: analysis of 10,449 primary breast cancer patients JF - Cancers N2 - Background Current research in breast cancer focuses on individualization of local and systemic therapies with adequate escalation or de-escalation strategies. As a result, about two-thirds of breast cancer patients can be cured, but up to one-third eventually develop metastatic disease, which is considered incurable with currently available treatment options. This underscores the importance to develop a metastatic recurrence score to escalate or de-escalate treatment strategies. Patients and methods Data from 10,499 patients were available from 17 clinical cancer registries (BRENDA-project. In total, 8566 were used to develop the BRENDA-Index. This index was calculated from the regression coefficients of a Cox regression model for metastasis-free survival (MFS). Based on this index, patients were categorized into very high, high, intermediate, low, and very low risk groups forming the BRENDA-Score. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation and an independent dataset of 1883 patients for external validation. The predictive accuracy was checked by Harrell's c-index. In addition, the BRENDA-Score was analyzed as a marker for overall survival (OS) and compared to the Nottingham prognostic score (NPS). Results: Intrinsic subtypes, tumour size, grading, and nodal status were identified as statistically significant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. The five prognostic groups of the BRENDA-Score showed highly significant (p < 0.001) differences regarding MFS:low risk: hazard ratio (HR) = 2.4, 95%CI (1.7–3.3); intermediate risk: HR = 5.0, 95%CI.(3.6–6.9); high risk: HR = 10.3, 95%CI (7.4–14.3) and very high risk: HR = 18.1, 95%CI (13.2–24.9). The external validation showed congruent results. A multivariate Cox regression model for OS with BRENDA-Score and NPS as covariates showed that of these two scores only the BRENDA-Score is significant (BRENDA-Score p < 0.001; NPS p = 0.447). Therefore, the BRENDA-Score is also a good prognostic marker for OS. Conclusion: The BRENDA-Score is an internally and externally validated robust predictive tool for metastatic recurrence in breast cancer patients. It is based on routine parameters easily accessible in daily clinical care. In addition, the BRENDA-Score is a good prognostic marker for overall survival. Highlights: The BRENDA-Score is a highly significant predictive tool for metastatic recurrence of breast cancer patients. The BRENDA-Score is stable for at least the first five years after primary diagnosis, i.e., the sensitivities and specificities of this predicting system is rather similar to the NPI with AUCs between 0.76 and 0.81 the BRENDA-Score is a good prognostic marker for overall survival. KW - breast cancer KW - risk KW - prediction KW - BRENDA KW - score KW - follow up Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-241064 SN - 2072-6694 VL - 13 IS - 13 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Brumberg, Joachim A1 - Schröter, Nils A1 - Blazhenets, Ganna A1 - Frings, Lars A1 - Volkmann, Jens A1 - Lapa, Constantin A1 - Jost, Wolfgang H. A1 - Isaias, Ioannis U. A1 - Meyer, Philipp T. T1 - Differential diagnosis of parkinsonism: a head-to-head comparison of FDG PET and MIBG scintigraphy JF - NPJ Parkinsons Disease N2 - [\(^{18}\)F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET and [\(^{123}\)I]metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) scintigraphy may contribute to the differential diagnosis of neurodegenerative parkinsonism. To identify the superior method, we retrospectively evaluated 54 patients with suspected neurodegenerative parkinsonism, who were referred for FDG PET and MIBG scintigraphy. Two investigators visually assessed FDG PET scans using an ordinal 6-step score for disease-specific patterns of Lewy body diseases (LBD) or atypical parkinsonism (APS) and assigned the latter to the subgroups multiple system atrophy (MSA), progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), or corticobasal syndrome. Regions-of-interest analysis on anterior planar MIBG images served to calculate the heart-to-mediastinum ratio. Movement disorder specialists blinded to imaging results established clinical follow-up diagnosis by means of guideline-derived case vignettes. Clinical follow-up (1.7 +/- 2.3 years) revealed the following diagnoses: n = 19 LBD (n = 17 Parkinson's disease [PD], n = 1 PD dementia, and n = 1 dementia with Lewy bodies), n = 31 APS (n = 28 MSA, n = 3 PSP), n = 3 non-neurodegenerative parkinsonism; n = 1 patient could not be diagnosed and was excluded. Receiver operating characteristic analyses for discriminating LBD vs. non-LBD revealed a larger area under the curve for FDG PET than for MIBG scintigraphy at statistical trend level for consensus rating (0.82 vs. 0.69, p = 0.06; significant for investigator #1: 0.83 vs. 0.69, p = 0.04). The analysis of PD vs. MSA showed a similar difference (0.82 vs. 0.69, p = 0.11; rater #1: 0.83 vs. 0.69, p = 0.07). Albeit the notable differences in diagnostic performance did not attain statistical significance, the authors consider this finding clinically relevant and suggest that FDG PET, which also allows for subgrouping of APS, should be preferred. KW - clinical diagnosis KW - F-18-FDG PET KW - disease KW - dementia KW - accuracy KW - stimulation KW - guidelines KW - criteria KW - brain KW - risk Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-230675 VL - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hardcastle, Nicholas A1 - Tomé, Wolfgang A. A1 - Cannon, Donald M. A1 - Brouwer, Charlotte L. A1 - Wittendorp, Paul W. H. A1 - Dogan, Nesrin A1 - Guckenberger, Matthias A1 - Allaire, Stéphane A1 - Mallya, Yogish A1 - Kumar, Prashant A1 - Oechsner, Markus A1 - Richter, Anne A1 - Song, Shiyu A1 - Myers, Michael A1 - Polat, Bülent A1 - Bzdusek, Karl T1 - A multi-institution evaluation of deformable image registration algorithms for automatic organ delineation in adaptive head and neck radiotherapy JF - Radiation Oncology N2 - Background: Adaptive Radiotherapy aims to identify anatomical deviations during a radiotherapy course and modify the treatment plan to maintain treatment objectives. This requires regions of interest (ROIs) to be defined using the most recent imaging data. This study investigates the clinical utility of using deformable image registration (DIR) to automatically propagate ROIs. Methods: Target (GTV) and organ-at-risk (OAR) ROIs were non-rigidly propagated from a planning CT scan to a per-treatment CT scan for 22 patients. Propagated ROIs were quantitatively compared with expert physician-drawn ROIs on the per-treatment scan using Dice scores and mean slicewise Hausdorff distances, and center of mass distances for GTVs. The propagated ROIs were qualitatively examined by experts and scored based on their clinical utility. Results: Good agreement between the DIR-propagated ROIs and expert-drawn ROIs was observed based on the metrics used. 94% of all ROIs generated using DIR were scored as being clinically useful, requiring minimal or no edits. However, 27% (12/44) of the GTVs required major edits. Conclusion: DIR was successfully used on 22 patients to propagate target and OAR structures for ART with good anatomical agreement for OARs. It is recommended that propagated target structures be thoroughly reviewed by the treating physician. KW - intensity-modulated radiotherapy KW - megavoltage computed-tomography KW - cancer KW - variability KW - strategies KW - risk Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-134756 VL - 7 IS - 90 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Asare-Kyei, Daniel A1 - Forkuor, Gerald A1 - Venus, Valentijn T1 - Modeling Flood Hazard Zones at the Sub-District Level with the Rational Model Integrated with GIS and Remote Sensing Approaches JF - Water N2 - Robust risk assessment requires accurate flood intensity area mapping to allow for the identification of populations and elements at risk. However, available flood maps in West Africa lack spatial variability while global datasets have resolutions too coarse to be relevant for local scale risk assessment. Consequently, local disaster managers are forced to use traditional methods such as watermarks on buildings and media reports to identify flood hazard areas. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were combined with hydrological and statistical models to delineate the spatial limits of flood hazard zones in selected communities in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Benin. The approach involves estimating peak runoff concentrations at different elevations and then applying statistical methods to develop a Flood Hazard Index (FHI). Results show that about half of the study areas fall into high intensity flood zones. Empirical validation using statistical confusion matrix and the principles of Participatory GIS show that flood hazard areas could be mapped at an accuracy ranging from 77% to 81%. This was supported with local expert knowledge which accurately classified 79% of communities deemed to be highly susceptible to flood hazard. The results will assist disaster managers to reduce the risk to flood disasters at the community level where risk outcomes are first materialized. KW - climate change KW - rational model KW - community KW - flood hazard index KW - West Africa KW - GIS KW - vulnerability KW - performance KW - impact KW - risk KW - mapping KW - runoff Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-151581 VL - 7 SP - 3531 EP - 3564 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drozd, Valentina M. A1 - Saenko, Vladimir A. A1 - Brenner, Alina V. A1 - Drozdovitch, Vladimir A1 - Pashkevich, Vasilii I. A1 - Kudelsky, Anatoliy V. A1 - Demidchik, Yuri E. A1 - Branovan, Igor A1 - Shiglik, Nikolay T1 - Major Factors Affecting Incidence of Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Belarus after the Chernobyl Accident: Do Nitrates in Drinking Water Play a Role? JF - PLoS One N2 - One of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 was a dramatic increase in incidence of thyroid cancer among those who were aged less than 18 years at the time of the accident. This increase has been directly linked in several analytic epidemiological studies to iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid doses received from the accident. However, there remains limited understanding of factors that modify the I-131-related risk. Focusing on post-Chernobyl pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus, we reviewed evidence of the effects of radiation, thyroid screening, and iodine deficiency on regional differences in incidence rates of thyroid cancer. We also reviewed current evidence on content of nitrate in groundwater and thyroid cancer risk drawing attention to high levels of nitrates in open well water in several contaminated regions of Belarus, i.e. Gomel and Brest, related to the usage of nitrogen fertilizers. In this hypothesis generating study, based on ecological data and biological plausibility, we suggest that nitrate pollution may modify the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer contributing to regional differences in rates of pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus. Analytic epidemiological studies designed to evaluate joint effect of nitrate content in groundwater and radiation present a promising avenue of research and may provide useful insights into etiology of thyroid cancer. KW - analysis KW - areas KW - power-station accident KW - iodine nutrition KW - skin hemagioma KW - pooled KW - risk KW - children KW - radiation KW - exposure KW - radiotherapy Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-141863 VL - 10 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marenholz, Ingo A1 - Esparza-Gordillo, Jorge A1 - Rüschendorf, Franz A1 - Bauerfeind, Anja A1 - Strachan, David P. A1 - Spycher, Ben D. A1 - Baurecht, Hansjörg A1 - Magaritte-Jeannin, Patricia A1 - Sääf, Annika A1 - Kerkhof, Marjan A1 - Ege, Markus A1 - Baltic, Svetlana A1 - Matheson, Melanie C. A1 - Li, Jin A1 - Michel, Sven A1 - Ang, Wei Q. A1 - McArdle, Wendy A1 - Arnold, Andreas A1 - Homuth, Georg A1 - Demenais, Florence A1 - Bouzigon, Emmanuelle A1 - Söderhäll, Cilla A1 - Pershagen, Göran A1 - de Jongste, Johan C. A1 - Postma, Dirkje S. A1 - Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte A1 - Horak, Elisabeth A1 - Ogorodova, Ludmila M. A1 - Puzyrev, Valery P. A1 - Bragina, Elena Yu A1 - Hudson, Thomas J. A1 - Morin, Charles A1 - Duffy, David L. A1 - Marks, Guy B. A1 - Robertson, Colin F. A1 - Montgomery, Grant W. A1 - Musk, Bill A1 - Thompson, Philip J. A1 - Martin, Nicholas G. A1 - James, Alan A1 - Sleiman, Patrick A1 - Toskala, Elina A1 - Rodriguez, Elke A1 - Fölster-Holst, Regina A1 - Franke, Andre A1 - Lieb, Wolfgang A1 - Gieger, Christian A1 - Heinzmann, Andrea A1 - Rietschel, Ernst A1 - Keil, Thomas A1 - Cichon, Sven A1 - Nöthen, Markus M. A1 - Pennel, Craig E. A1 - Sly, Peter D. A1 - Schmidt, Carsten O. A1 - Matanovic, Anja A1 - Schneider, Valentin A1 - Heinig, Matthias A1 - Hübner, Norbert A1 - Holt, Patrick G. A1 - Lau, Susanne A1 - Kabesch, Michael A1 - Weidinger, Stefan A1 - Hakonarson, Hakon A1 - Ferreira, Manuel A. R. A1 - Laprise, Catherine A1 - Freidin, Maxim B. A1 - Genuneit, Jon A1 - Koppelman, Gerard H. A1 - Melén, Erik A1 - Dizier, Marie-Hélène A1 - Henderson, A. John A1 - Lee, Young Ae T1 - Meta-analysis identifies seven susceptibility loci involved in the atopic march JF - Nature Communications N2 - Eczema often precedes the development of asthma in a disease course called the 'atopic march'. To unravel the genes underlying this characteristic pattern of allergic disease, we conduct a multi-stage genome-wide association study on infantile eczema followed by childhood asthma in 12 populations including 2,428 cases and 17,034 controls. Here we report two novel loci specific for the combined eczema plus asthma phenotype, which are associated with allergic disease for the first time; rs9357733 located in EFHC1 on chromosome 6p12.3 (OR 1.27; P = 2.1 x 10(-8)) and rs993226 between TMTC2 and SLC6A15 on chromosome 12q21.3 (OR 1.58; P = 5.3 x 10(-9)). Additional susceptibility loci identified at genome-wide significance are FLG (1q21.3), IL4/KIF3A (5q31.1), AP5B1/OVOL1 (11q13.1), C11orf30/LRRC32 (11q13.5) and IKZF3 (17q21). We show that predominantly eczema loci increase the risk for the atopic march. Our findings suggest that eczema may play an important role in the development of asthma after eczema. KW - chromosome 11Q13 KW - risk KW - genomewide association KW - hay fever KW - birth cohort KW - filaggrin mutations KW - food allergy KW - juvenile myoclonic epilepsy KW - childhood asthma KW - dermatitis Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-139835 VL - 6 IS - 8804 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drechsler, Christiane A1 - Kolleritz, Barbara A1 - Meinitzer, Andreas A1 - März, Winfried A1 - Ritz, Eberhard A1 - König, Paul A1 - Neyer, Ulrich A1 - Pilz, Stefan A1 - Wanner, Christoph A1 - Kronenberg, Florian T1 - Homoarginine and Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease: Results from the Mild to Moderate Kidney Disease Study JF - PLoS ONE N2 - Background: Homoarginine is an amino acid derivative mainly synthesized in the kidney. It is suggested to increase nitric oxide availability, enhance endothelial function and to protect against cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to investigate the relation between homoarginine, kidney function and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods: We measured plasma homoarginine concentrations in baseline samples of the Mild to Moderate Kidney Disease (MMKD) Study, a prospective cohort study of 227 patients with CKD in Europe. Homoarginine concentrations were available in 182 of the baseline samples and in 139 of the prospectively-followed patients. We correlated homoarginine concentrations to parameters of kidney function. The association between homoarginine and progression of CKD was assessed during a follow-up of up to seven years (median 4.45 years, interquartile range 2.54-5.19) using Cox regression analysis. Progression of CKD was defined as doubling of baseline serum creatinine and/or end-stage renal disease. Results: Study participants were at baseline on average 47 \(\pm\)13 years old and 65% were male. Mean \(\pm\) standard deviation of homoarginine concentrations were \(2.5 \pm 1.1 \mu mol/L\) and concentrations were incrementally lower at lower levels of GFR with mean concentrations of \(2.90 \pm 1.02 \mu mol/L\) (GFR. 90 ml/min), \(2.64 \pm 1.06 \mu mol/L\) (GFR 60-90 ml/min), \(2.52 \pm 1.24 \mu mol/L\) (GFR 30-60 ml/min) and \(2.05 \pm 0.78 \mu mol/L\) (GFR, 30 ml/min), respectively (p = 0.002). The age-and sex-adjusted risk to reach the renal endpoint was significantly higher by 62% with each decrease by one standard deviation (\(1.1 \mu mol/L\)) of homoarginine (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.16-2.27, p = 0.005). This association was independent of proteinuria (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.11-2.20, p = 0.01), and was slightly attenuated when adjusting for GFR (HR 1.40 (95% CI 0.98-1.98, p = 0.06). Conclusions: Homoarginine concentrations are directly correlated with kidney function and are significantly associated with the progression of CKD. Low homoarginine concentrations might be an early indicator of kidney failure and a potential target for the prevention of disease progression which needs further investigations. KW - risk KW - alkaline phosphatase KW - cardiovascular events KW - nictric-oxide KW - induced insulin-release KW - creatine synthesis KW - renal function KW - heart failure KW - rat kidney KW - L-arginine Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-130979 VL - 8 IS - 5 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Steppuhn, Henriette A1 - Langen, Ute A1 - Scheidt-Nave, Christa A1 - Keil, Thomas T1 - Major comorbid conditions in asthma and association with asthma-related hospitalizations and emergency department admissions in adults: results from the German national health telephone interview survey (GEDA) 2010 JF - BMC Pulmonary Medicine N2 - Background: It remains unclear to what extent asthma in adults is linked to allergic rhinitis (AR), gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and acetylsalicylic acid exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD), and how these comorbidities may affect asthma outcomes in the general population. We therefore aimed to assess the prevalence of these major comorbidities among adults with asthma and examine their impact on asthma exacerbations requiring hospital care. Methods: A total of 22,050 adults 18 years and older were surveyed in the German National Health Telephone Interview Survey (GEDA) 2010 using a highly standardized computer-assisted interview technique. The study population comprised participants with self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma, among which the current (last 12 months) prevalence of AR and GERD-like symptoms (GERS), and life-time prevalence of AERD was estimated. Weighted bivariate analyses and logistic regression models were applied to assess the association of each comorbid condition with the asthma outcome (any self-reported asthma-related hospitalization and/or emergency department (ED) admission in the past year). Results: Out of 1,136 adults with asthma, 49.6% had GERS and 42.3% had AR within the past 12 months; 14.0% met the criteria of AERD, and 75.7% had at least one out of the three conditions. Overall, the prevalence of at least one exacerbation requiring emergency room or hospital admission within the past year was 9.0%. Exacerbation prevalence was higher among participants with comorbidities than among those without (9.8% vs. 8.2% for GERS; 11.2% vs. 7.6% for AR, and 22.2% vs. 7.0% for AERD), but only differences in association with AERD were statistically significant. A strong association between asthma exacerbation and AERD persisted in multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for sex, age group, level of body mass index, smoking status, educational attainment, and duration of asthma: odds ratio (OR) = 4.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5-8.2. Conclusions: Data from this large nation-wide study provide evidence that GERS, AR and AERD are all common comorbidities among adults with asthma. Our data underline the public health and clinical impact of asthma with complicating AERD, contributing considerably to disease-specific hospitalization and/or ED admission in a defined asthma population, and emphasize the importance of its recognition in asthma care. KW - management KW - update KW - impact KW - risk KW - severity KW - prevalence KW - clinical-practice KW - aspirin sensitivity KW - allergic rhinitis KW - exacebrated respiratory-disease KW - gastroesophageal reflux disease KW - gastroesophageal reflux KW - hospitalization KW - national health survey KW - acetylsalicylic acid exacerbated respiratory disease KW - adult KW - aspirin-induced asthma KW - asthma Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-122121 VL - 13 IS - 46 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kohlhase, Sandra A1 - Bogdanova, Natalia V. A1 - Schürmann, Peter A1 - Bermisheva, Marina A1 - Khusnutdinova, Elza A1 - Antonenkova, Natalia A1 - Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won A1 - Hillemanns, Peter A1 - Meyer, Andreas A1 - Christiansen, Hans A1 - Schindler, Detlev A1 - Dörk, Thilo T1 - Mutation Analysis of the ERCC4/FANCQ Gene in Hereditary Breast Cancer JF - PLOS ONE N2 - The ERCC4 protein forms a structure-specific endonuclease involved in the DNA damage response. Different cancer syndromes such as a subtype of Xeroderma pigmentosum, XPF, and recently a subtype of Fanconi Anemia, FA-Q, have been attributed to biallelic ERCC4 gene mutations. To investigate whether monoallelic ERCC4 gene defects play some role in the inherited component of breast cancer susceptibility, we sequenced the whole ERCC4 coding region and flanking untranslated portions in a series of 101 Byelorussian and German breast cancer patients selected for familial disease (set 1, n = 63) or for the presence of the rs1800067 risk haplotype (set 2, n = 38). This study confirmed six known and one novel exonic variants, including four missense substitutions but no truncating mutation. Missense substitution p.R415Q (rs1800067), a previously postulated breast cancer susceptibility allele, was subsequently screened for in a total of 3,698 breast cancer cases and 2,868 controls from Germany, Belarus or Russia. The Gln415 allele appeared protective against breast cancer in the German series, with the strongest effect for ductal histology (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.49; 0.92; p = 0.003), but this association was not confirmed in the other two series, with the combined analysis yielding an overall Mantel-Haenszel OR of 0.94 (95% CI 0.81; 1.08). There was no significant effect of p.R415Q on breast cancer survival in the German patient series. The other three detected ERCC4 missense mutations included two known rare variants as well as a novel substitution, p.E17V, that we identified on a p.R415Q haplotype background. The p.E17V mutation is predicted to be probably damaging but was present in just one heterozygous patient. We conclude that the contribution of ERCC4/FANCQ coding mutations to hereditary breast cancer in Central and Eastern Europe is likely to be small. KW - ERCC1-XPF KW - susceptibility loci KW - ERCC4 KW - genome-wide association KW - fanconi-anemia KW - ATM gene KW - endonuclease KW - risk KW - requency KW - variants Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-117582 VL - 9 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grabenhenrich, Linus B. A1 - Reich, Andreas A1 - Fischer, Felix A1 - Zepp, Fred A1 - Forster, Johannes A1 - Schuster, Antje A1 - Bauer, Carl-Peter A1 - Bergmann, Renate L. A1 - Bergmann, Karl E. A1 - Wahn, Ulrich A1 - Keil, Thomas A1 - Lau, Susanne T1 - The Novel 10-Item Asthma Prediction Tool: External Validation in the German MAS Birth Cohort JF - PLOS ONE N2 - Background: A novel non-invasive asthma prediction tool from the Leicester Cohort, UK, forecasts asthma at age 8 years based on 10 predictors assessed in early childhood, including current respiratory symptoms, eczema, and parental history of asthma. Objective: We aimed to externally validate the proposed asthma prediction method in a German birth cohort. Methods: The MAS-90 study (Multicentre Allergy Study) recorded details on allergic diseases prospectively in about yearly follow-up assessments up to age 20 years in a cohort of 1,314 children born 1990. We replicated the scoring method from the Leicester cohort and assessed prediction, performance and discrimination. The primary outcome was defined as the combination of parent-reported wheeze and asthma drugs (both in last 12 months) at age 8. Sensitivity analyses assessed model performance for outcomes related to asthma up to age 20 years. Results: For 140 children parents reported current wheeze or cough at age 3 years. Score distribution and frequencies of later asthma resembled the Leicester cohort: 9% vs. 16% (MAS-90 vs. Leicester) of children at low risk at 3 years had asthma at 8 years, at medium risk 45% vs. 48%. Performance of the asthma prediction tool in the MAS-90 cohort was similar (Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.23) and discrimination slightly better than in the original cohort (area under the curve, AUC 0.83 vs. 0.78). Prediction and discrimination were robust against changes of inclusion criteria, scoring and outcome definitions. The secondary outcome 'physicians' diagnosed asthma at 20 years' showed the highest discrimination (AUC 0.89). Conclusion: The novel asthma prediction tool from the Leicester cohort, UK, performed well in another population, a German birth cohort, supporting its use and further development as a simple aid to predict asthma risk in clinical settings. KW - disease KW - models KW - symptoms KW - risk KW - early-life KW - young children KW - preschool children KW - sample KW - wheeze KW - age Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-114202 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 9 IS - 12 ER -