TY  - JOUR
A1  - Paeth, Heiko
A1  - Paxian, Andreas
A1  - Sein, Dimitry V.
A1  - Jacob, Daniela
A1  - Panitz, Hans-Jürgen
A1  - Warscher, Michael
A1  - Fink, Andreas H.
A1  - Kunstmann, Harald
A1  - Breil, Marcus
A1  - Engel, Thomas
A1  - Krause, Andreas
A1  - Toedter, Julian
A1  - Ahrens, Bodo
T1  - Decadal and multi-year predictability of the West African monsoon and the role of dynamical downscaling
JF  - Meteorologische Zeitschrift
N2  - West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system.
In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and landsurface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.
KW  - geography
KW  - decadal predictability
KW  - West Africa
KW  - monsoon rainfall
KW  - dynamical downscaling
Y1  - 2017
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-172018
VL  - 26
IS  - 4
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Redlich, Sarah
A1  - Zhang, Jie
A1  - Benjamin, Caryl
A1  - Dhillon, Maninder Singh
A1  - Englmeier, Jana
A1  - Ewald, Jörg
A1  - Fricke, Ute
A1  - Ganuza, Cristina
A1  - Haensel, Maria
A1  - Hovestadt, Thomas
A1  - Kollmann, Johannes
A1  - Koellner, Thomas
A1  - Kübert‐Flock, Carina
A1  - Kunstmann, Harald
A1  - Menzel, Annette
A1  - Moning, Christoph
A1  - Peters, Wibke
A1  - Riebl, Rebekka
A1  - Rummler, Thomas
A1  - Rojas‐Botero, Sandra
A1  - Tobisch, Cynthia
A1  - Uhler, Johannes
A1  - Uphus, Lars
A1  - Müller, Jörg
A1  - Steffan‐Dewenter, Ingolf
T1  - Disentangling effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services—A multi‐scale experimental design
JF  - Methods in Ecology and Evolution
N2  - Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients.
    
Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration (i.e. using a Geographic information system) and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximise the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales.
    
Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones (reference period 1981–2010) and three prevailing land-use types, that is, near-natural, agriculture and urban, resulted in 60 study regions (5.8 × 5.8 km quadrants) covering a mean annual temperature gradient of 5.6–9.8°C and a spatial extent of ~310 × 310 km. Within these regions, we nested 180 study plots located in contrasting local land-use types, that is, forests, grasslands, arable land or settlement (local climate gradient 4.5–10°C). This approach achieved low correlations between climate and land use (proportional cover) at the regional and landscape scale with |r ≤ 0.33| and |r ≤ 0.29| respectively. Furthermore, using correlation heatmaps for local plot selection reduced potentially confounding relationships between landscape composition and configuration for plots located in forests, arable land and settlements.
    
The suggested design expands upon previous research in covering a significant range of environmental gradients and including a diversity of dominant land-use types at different scales within different climatic contexts. It allows independent assessment of the relative contribution of multi-scale climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Understanding potential interdependencies among global change drivers is essential to develop effective restoration and mitigation strategies against biodiversity decline, especially in expectation of future climatic changes. Importantly, this study also provides a baseline for long-term ecological monitoring programs.
KW  - study design
KW  - biodiversity
KW  - climate change
KW  - ecosystem functioning
KW  - insect monitoring
KW  - land use
KW  - space-for-time approach
KW  - spatial scales
Y1  - 2022
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-258270
VL  - 13
IS  - 2
ER  -