TY - RPRT A1 - Angnide, Enarile A1 - Bielitska, Iryna A1 - Borchert, Leon A1 - Braun, Louisa A1 - Bühler, Pascal A1 - Chen, Xinyue A1 - Ho, Katherina A1 - Hofmann, Lena A1 - Kebekus, Melvin A1 - Kubsch, Torbjörn A1 - Li, Alexander A1 - Lin, Simon A1 - Mischer, Andreas A1 - Mogus, Mateja A1 - Schmid, Fabian A1 - Schneidawind, Luisa A1 - Voss, Manuela A1 - Wilson, Claire A1 - Wieteska, Filip A1 - Yu, Linda ED - Lindner, Jonas ED - Fischer, Doris T1 - Chinese Entanglements in Lower Franconian Business BT - A student research project by the Chair of China Business and Economics at the University of Würzburg N2 - Using own survey data and interviews, this study analyzes how businesses in Lower Franconia (Unterfranken) are entangled with China. Starting with a bird's-eye-view of the current situation, the study goes on to provide valuable insights from five specific industries. The study shows that a majority of the analyzed firms have some sort of ties to China, be it through Chinese customers, import/export activities, or else. KW - China KW - Unterfranken KW - China KW - Lower Franconia KW - Unterfranken KW - business KW - entanglement KW - Handel Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-209876 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bofinger, Peter A1 - Geißendörfer, Lisa A1 - Haas, Thomas A1 - Mayer, Fabian T1 - Credit as an Instrument for Growth: A Monetary Explanation of the Chinese Growth Story N2 - This study describes the Chinese growth model over the past 40 years. We show that China's growth model, with its dominant role of the banking system and "the banker", is a perfect illustration of the necessity and power of Schumpeter's "monetary analysis". This approach has allowed us to elaborate theoretically and empirically the uniqueness of the Chinese model. In our empirical analysis, we use a new dataset of Chinese provincial data to analyze the impact of the financial system, especially banks, on Chinese economic development. We also empirically assess the role of the financial system in Chinese industrial policy and provide case studies of the effects of industrial policy in specific sectors. Finally, we also discuss macroeconomic dimensions of the Chinese growth process and lessons that can be drawn from the Chinese experience for other countries. T3 - Würzburg Economic Papers (W. E. P.) - 107 KW - Industriepolitik KW - Bank-led Growth KW - China KW - Wirtschaftswachstum KW - Wirtschaftsentwicklung KW - Industrial Policy KW - China KW - Strategic Emerging Industries KW - Finance-growth nexus KW - Finance KW - Economic growth KW - Economic development KW - Bank credit Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-328804 ER - TY - THES A1 - Brzoska, Jan T1 - Market forecasting in China: An Artificial Neural Network approach to optimize the accuracy of sales forecasts in the Chinese automotive market T1 - Marktprognosen in China: Einsatz eines Künstlichen Neuronalen Netzes zur Optimierung der monatlichen Absatzprognosequalität im chinesischen Automobilmarkt N2 - Sales forecasts are an essential determinant of operational planning in entrepreneurial organizations. However, in China, as in other emerging markets, monthly sales forecasts are particularly challenging for multinational automotive enterprises and suppliers. A chief reason for this is that conventional approaches to sales forecasting often fail to capture the underlying market dynamics. To that end, this dissertation investigates the application of Artificial Neural Networks with an implemented backpropagation algorithm as a more “unconventional” sales forecasting method. A key element of statistical modelling is the selection of superior leading indicators. These indicators were collected as part of the researcher’s expert interviews with multinational enterprises and state associations in China. The economic plausibility of all specified indicators is critically explored in qualitative-quantitative pre-selection procedures. The overall objective of the present study was to improve the accuracy of monthly sales forecasts in the Chinese automotive market. This objective was achieved by showing that the forecasting error could be lowered to a new benchmark of less than 10% in an out-of-sample forecasting application. N2 - Absatzprognosen sind ein zentraler Bestandteil der operativen Unternehmensplanung. In China, wie auch in anderen Schwellenländern, stellen vor allem monatliche Prognosen jedoch eine besondere Herausforderung für multinationale Automobilhersteller und deren Zulieferer dar. Ein Grund hierfür ist, dass konventionelle Prognoseverfahren der außergewöhnlich hohen Marktdynamik nicht ausreichend gerecht werden. In der vorliegenden Dissertationsschrift werden Künstliche Neuronale Netze mit integriertem Backpropagation-Algorithmus als alternatives Marktprognoseverfahren eingehend beleuchtet. Erprobt vor allem in hochvolatilen Finanzmarktanwendungen ist diese Form künstlicher Intelligenz imstande, hochkomplexe Zusammenhänge zu entschlüsseln und selbständig aus Prognosefehlern zu lernen. Ein Kernelement der statistischen Modellierung ist die Auswahl von geeigneten Frühwarnindikatoren, die unter anderem durch Experteninterviews in chinesischer Sprache bei Regierungsablegern erhoben wurden. Die ökonomische Plausibilität der genannten Indikatoren wird in qualitativ-quantitativen Vorauswahlverfahren kritisch reflektiert. Grundlegendes Ziel des Forschungsprojektes war es, die Güte der monatlichen Absatzprognosen im chinesischen Automobilmarkt zu verbessern. Dieses Ziel konnte mit Unterschreitung der entscheidenden 10%-Prognosefehlerschwelle im Validierungsdatensatz erreicht werden. KW - China KW - Kraftfahrzeugindustrie KW - Marktprognose KW - Neuronales Netz KW - Automotive industry KW - Chinese economy KW - Market forecasts KW - Artificial Neural Networks KW - Backpropagation Learning KW - Leading indicators KW - Institutional voids KW - Emerging markets KW - Resource-based view KW - International business strategy KW - Wirtschaft KW - Prognosen KW - Autoindustrie KW - Neuronale Netze Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-203155 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Clauss, Kersten A1 - Yan, Huimin A1 - Kuenzer, Claudia T1 - Mapping Paddy Rice in China in 2002, 2005, 2010 and 2014 with MODIS Time Series JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Rice is an important food crop and a large producer of green-house relevant methane. Accurate and timely maps of paddy fields are most important in the context of food security and greenhouse gas emission modelling. During their life-cycle, rice plants undergo a phenological development that influences their interaction with waves in the visible light and infrared spectrum. Rice growth has a distinctive signature in time series of remotely-sensed data. We used time series of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products MOD13Q1 and MYD13Q1 and a one-class support vector machine to detect these signatures and classify paddy rice areas in continental China. Based on these classifications, we present a novel product for continental China that shows rice areas for the years 2002, 2005, 2010 and 2014 at 250-m resolution. Our classification has an overall accuracy of 0.90 and a kappa coefficient of 0.77 compared to our own reference dataset for 2014 and correlates highly with rice area statistics from China’s Statistical Yearbooks (R2 of 0.92 for 2010, 0.92 for 2005 and 0.90 for 2002). Moderate resolution time series analysis allows accurate and timely mapping of rice paddies over large areas with diverse cropping schemes. KW - agriculture KW - rice KW - China KW - MODIS KW - time series KW - SVM KW - OCSVM KW - change detection Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-180557 VL - 8 IS - 5 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Fischer (Hrsg.), Doris T1 - Tourism in Würzburg: Suggestions on how to enhance the travel experience for Chinese tourists BT - A student project at the Julius-Maximilian-University Würzburg N2 - This report provides suggestions on how to enhance the travel experience for Chinese tourists in the German city of Würzburg. Based on a user experience survey and a market research, this work includes a quantitative and competitive analysis. It further provides concrete and hands-on measurements for the city council to improve the experience of Chinese visitors coming to Würzburg. KW - China KW - Tourismus KW - user experience KW - travel experience KW - Würzburg KW - chinese tourists KW - Würzburg Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-143898 ET - 1. Auflage ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fischer, Doris T1 - The Impact of Changing Incentives in China on International Cooperation in Social Science Research on China JF - Journal of Current Chinese Affairs N2 - Over the past three decades, China’s fast economic development has induced considerable changes in China’s university and research institution landscape, research financing and academic career incentives. This paper argues that these changes have affected the motivation and the ways in which Chinese scholars engage in international research cooperation. Most recently it has been observed that strong pressures on scholars and scientists – especially at leading academic institutions – to excel in international publications while simultaneously fulfilling their obligation to generate income for their institutions can lead to a dilemma with regard to international research cooperation: Those institutions and scholars most interesting for foreign scholars to cooperate with may be the ones with the least amount of both incentive and time to enter into serious cooperation. This article invites us to reflect on the implications of these changes in the incentive structure for cooperation in social science research on China. KW - social science research KW - incentives KW - research funds KW - international cooperation KW - China Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-120524 UR - http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:gbv:18-4-7454 SN - 1868-4874 VL - 2 IS - 2 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Fischer, Doris A1 - Schaper, Anna-Katharina T1 - Does Gender Matter for the Entrepreneurship Fairy Tale? An Analysis of Chinese Unicorn Start-ups T2 - CBE Research Notes N2 - Start-up ecosystems around the world have created a large number of successful and innovative unicorn companies in recent years. Our research note focuses on the case of China and offers a global comparative perspective on the current status of Chinese unicorn start-ups and their founding structure. We identify a predominantly male unicorn founding structure and illustrate a worrying decline of female entrepreneurship in China. T3 - CBE Research Note - 2/2021 KW - female entrepreneurs KW - unicorns KW - China KW - economics KW - entrepreneurship KW - Women entrepreneurs KW - Start-up Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-244415 SN - 2747-8661 ER - TY - THES A1 - Geiger, Michael T1 - Monetary Policy in China: Institutions, Targets, Instruments and Strategies T1 - Geldpolitik in China: Institutionen, Ziele, Instrumente und Strategien N2 - China’s monetary policy aims to reach two final targets: a paramount economical target (i.e. price stability) and a less important political target (i.e. economic growth). The main actor of monetary policy is the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC). But the PBC is a non-independent central bank. The State Council approves the goals of monetary policy. Very limited instrument independence means that interest rates cannot be set at the PBC’s discretion, and in-sufficient personal independence fails to insulate central bank officials from political influence. Monetary policy in China applies to two sets of monetary policy instruments: (i) instruments of the PBC; and (ii) non-central bank policy instruments. The instruments of the PBC include price-based indirect and quantity-based direct instruments. Non-central bank policy instruments include price and wage controls. The simultaneous usage of all these instruments leads to various distortions that ultimately prevent the interest rate channel of monetary transmission from functioning. Moreover, the strong influences of quantity-based direct instruments and non-central bank policy instruments bring into question the approach of indirect monetary policy in general. The PBC officially follows the monetary targeting approach with monetary aggregates as intermediate targets. Domestic loan growth and the exchange rate are defined as additional intermediate targets. In an in-depth analysis of the intermediate targets two main issues are primarily explored: (i) Are the intermediate targets of the Chinese monetary policy controllable? (ii) Is a sufficient relationship between these targets and the inflation rate observable? It is then shown that monetary aggregates are very difficult to control, but they have a satisfactory relationship with the inflation rate. Similarly, domestic loan growth is difficult to control – a fact largely attributed to the interest rate elasticity of loans – while there is a particularly close relationship between credit growth and the inflation rate. The exchange rate as an intermediate target can be controlled through foreign exchange market interventions; at the same time the exchange rate appears to have a significant relationship to the domestic inflation rate. Discussing the special issue of sterilizing foreign exchange inflows, the study concludes that between 2002 and 2008 not only no costs were incurred by sterilization operations, but that the central bank was actually able to realize a profit through foreign exchange market interventions. Based on this, it is concluded that the exchange rate target has not adversely affected the domestic orientation of monetary policy on the whole. The final part of the study examines whether there are any alternative monetary policy approaches that may be able to describe the policy approach in China; special focus is placed on nominal GDP targeting, the Taylor rule, and inflation targeting. A literature review reveals that the concept of nominal GDP targeting may be able to detect inflationary tendencies in the economy and, in combination with other indicators, it could be a suitable concept to assess the overall economic situation. The author calculates a Taylor rule for China from 1994 to 2008 and concludes that there is no close relationship between the PBC lending and the Taylor rate. The author then designs an augmented Taylor rule expanded to include a credit component (credit-augmented Taylor rule). The study shows that the augmented Taylor rule does not perform much better than the original one, but that it maps high inflationary periods relatively well. This is attributed to direct interventions into the credit markets, which have played a major role in combating inflationary cycles over the past decades. The analysis ends with an introduction of the concept of inflation targeting and an examination of whether this could describe monetary policy in China. It is clear that the PBC does not currently follow the inflation targeting approach, although the Chinese authorities could actually be able to influence inflation expectations effectively, not least through direct instruments such as price controls. The author notes that the PBC indeed had a good track record of fighting inflation between 1994 and 2008, and that this may now indicate a good time to think about introducing inflation targeting in China. The central conclusion of the study is that the proven gradual approach to economic and monetary reforms in China is reaching its limit. To break the vicious cycle that relies on the continuous use of quantity-based instruments to compensate for the ineffective price-based instruments – which in turn arises from the simultaneous use of both types of instruments – a complete shift away from quantity-based instruments is needed. Only then the approach of indirect monetary policy, which was officially introduced in 1998, could come into full play. N2 - Chinas Geldpolitik verfolgt zwei Endziele: Ein alles überragendes wirtschaftliches Ziel (d.h. Preisstabilität) und ein weniger wichtiges politisches Ziel (d.h. Wirtschaftswachstum). Der Hauptakteur der Geldpolitik ist die Zentralbank, die People's Bank of China (PBC). Aber die PBC ist eine nicht-unabhängige Zentralbank. Der Staatsrat genehmigt die Ziele der Geldpolitik, und eine sehr begrenzte Instrumenten-Unabhängigkeit bedeutet, dass die Zinsen nicht vollständig nach dem Ermessen der PBC festgelegt werden können. Die ungenügende personelle Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank schafft es nicht, die Amtsträger dem politischen Einfluss zu entziehen. Der Geldpolitik in China stehen zwei Arten von geldpolitischen Instrumenten zur Verfügung: (i) Instrumente der PBC; und (ii) Politische nicht-Notenbank Instrumente. Die Instrumente der PBC beinhalten preis-basierte indirekte und quantität-basierte direkte Instrumente. Zu den politischen nicht-Notenbank Instrumenten zählen Preis- und Lohnkontrollen. Die gleichzeitige Nutzung dieser Instrumente führt zu vielerei Verzerrungen, die letztlich verhindern, dass der Zinskanal des monetären Transmissionsmechanismus funktionieren kann. Darüber hinaus stellen die starken Einflüsse der quantität-basierten direkten Instrumente und der politischen nicht-Notenbank Instrumente den Ansatz der indirekten Geldpolitik im Allgemeinen in Frage. KW - Geldpolitik KW - China KW - Geldmengenpolitik KW - Inflation Targeting KW - Preisberwachung KW - Lohnkontrolle KW - Taylor-Regel KW - Geldmengensteuerung KW - Notenbank KW - People's Bank of China KW - Monetary Policy KW - Window Guidance KW - China KW - Monetary Sterilisation Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-69945 ER - TY - THES A1 - Gerdau, Ole T1 - Applicability of Intrinsic Value Models at the Segmented Chinese Stock Market T1 - Anwendbarkeit intrinsischer Wertmodelle am segmentierten chinesischen Kapitalmarkt N2 - Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die Anwendbarkeit intrinsischer Wertmodelle in dem nach inländischen und ausländischen Investoren segmentierten chinesischen Kapitalmarkt zu untersuchen. Innerhalb des Frameworks der internationalen Portfolio Investment Theorie werden segmentspezifische Preisunterschiede nicht irrationalem Verhalten zugeschrieben, sondern als in Übereinstimmung mit ökonomischer Theorie angesehen. Der theoretische Vergleich von Gleichgewichts- und intrinsischen Wertmodellen lässt letztere für das chinesische Marktumfeld geeigneter erscheinen. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in dieser Arbeit die Relevanz intrinsischer Wertmodelle für chinesische Aktienpreise empirisch untersucht. Demnach sind Preisunterschiede auf ungleiche Investitionsmöglichkeiten und segmentspezifische Charakteristika zurückzuführen. Dennoch führen die Ergebnisse im Hinblick auf den inländischen und Hongkong-chinesischen risikolosen Zinsproxys zu dem Schluss, dass intrinsische Wertmodelle gegenüber linearen Faktormodellen nicht als geeigneter angesehen werden können. N2 - This thesis examines the application of intrinsic value models considering segmentation between foreign and domestic investors’ stock segments in China. Within the framework of international portfolio investment theory, segment-specific price differences are theorized to be not caused by irrational behavior but consistent with economic theory. Theoretical comparison of equilibrium and intrinsic value models suggests the latter to be more suitable regarding the Chinese market environment. Correspondingly, in this thesis the relevance of intrinsic value models for Chinese stock prices is examined empirically. It is concluded that price differences can be ascribed to unequal investment opportunities and segment specific characteristics. Nevertheless, results from the domestic and Hong Kong risk-free rate proxy lead to the conclusion that intrinsic value models cannot be considered better suited than linear factor models. KW - China KW - Aktienmarkt KW - Preisbildung KW - Unternehmensbewertung KW - Marktsegmentierung KW - implizite Kapitalkosten KW - intrinsic value models KW - Chinese stock market KW - market segmentation KW - implied cost of capital Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-55652 ER - TY - THES A1 - Harbrecht, Isabelle T1 - Entering Society – The Adolescence, Identity and Development of Vocational Education Students in Shanghai T1 - Eintritt in die Gesellschaft – Jugend, Identität und Entwicklung von Berufsschülern in Shanghai N2 - With the late twentieth-century reform of the labour market and the abolition of the ‘iron rice bowl’ in China, jobs were no longer guaranteed by the government and higher education became more and more a requirement for even low-level positions. A surplus of academics and a lack of skilled workers became the long-term consequences. Since the early 2000s, the government has tried to mitigate this situation by promoting and developing vocational education. However, it is still considered to be a second class education, suitable only for weak students whose results are too low for an academic middle school. Based on the qualitative and quantitative data of a three-year panel study conducted in vocational schools in Shanghai, the present publication analyses the social environments, personalities, values and perceptions of students in vocational education – adolescents stigmatized by society. The results show how their attitudes change throughout their education, and which kinds of identities they form. Drawing on Ulrich Beck’s thesis of individualization, this publication finds that adolescents in vocational education still hold on to the belief that good study results enable them to seize chances and avoid risks. Freedom of choice, feelings of success and a good relationship with parents support these positive attitudes towards learning. Family in particular turned out to not only be an important motivational factor but also the dominant value of the students. Vocational education is still, however, stigmatized and the adolescents try to bring that in line with their self-worth. N2 - Die Reform des Arbeitsmarktes und die Abschaffung der „eisernen Reisschüssel“ führten in China dazu, dass Arbeitsplätze nicht länger garantiert waren und ein höherer Bildungsabschluss zunehmend eine Voraussetzung auch für niedrigere Positionen wurde. Die längerfristigen Folgen waren eine Akademikerschwemme und ein akuter Facharbeitermangel. Die Regierung versucht dem zu begegnen, indem sie die Berufsbildung fördert und entwickelt. Doch nach wie vor gilt dieser Bildungszweig als Bildung zweiter Klasse für Schüler/innen, deren Leistungen zu schwach für eine akademische Mittelschule sind. Basierend auf den quantitativen und qualitativen Daten einer dreijährigen Panelstudie an Berufsschulen in Shanghai, analysiert die vorliegende Arbeit das soziale Umfeld, die Persönlichkeit, Werte und Wahrnehmungen der gesellschaftlich stigmatisierten Berufsschüler und zeigt, wie sich ihre Einstellungen im Verlauf der Ausbildung verändern und welche Identitäten sie bilden. Unter Anwendung von Ulrich Becks Theorie der Individualisierung, zeigt diese Arbeit wie die Jugendlichen auch in der Berufsschule an der Überzeugung festhalten, durch gute schulische Leistungen künftige Chancen ergreifen und Risiken vermeiden zu können. Diese positive Lerneinstellung wird von wahrgenommenen Wahlfreiheiten, Erfolgserlebnissen und einem guten Verhältnis zu den Eltern positiv beeinflusst. Insbesondere die Familie stellt sich nicht nur als ein Motivationsfaktor, sondern auch als der dominierende Wert der Schüler/innen heraus. Dennoch wird die Berufsbildung von den Jugendlichen als Stigma wahrgenommen und sie versuchen dieses mit ihrem Selbstwert in Einklang zu bringen. N2 - With the late twentieth-century reform of the labour market in China, jobs ceased to be guaranteed by the government, and higher education became more and more a requirement for even low-level positions. A surplus of academics and a lack of skilled workers are consequences of these developments - yet vocational education, a clear solution to this problem, has had a persistently negative reputation as a second-class education, suitable only for weak students whose results are too low for an academic middle school. Against this background, Entering Society analyses the social environments, personalities, values and perceptions of vocational education students over three years in Shanghai. The results show how adolescents stigmatized by society view themselves, their education, their identities and their futures. KW - risk society KW - individualization KW - personality development KW - self-determination theory KW - labour market KW - vocational education KW - education system KW - stigma KW - Berufsbildung KW - Bildungswesen KW - China KW - Stigmatisierung KW - Motivation Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-168626 SN - 978-3-95826-096-2 SN - 978-3-95826-097-9 N1 - Parallel erschienen als Druckausgabe in Würzburg University Press, 978-3-95826-096-2, 29,80 EUR. PB - Würzburg University Press CY - Würzburg ET - 1. Auflage ER -