TY - JOUR A1 - Ermert, Volker A1 - Fink, Andreas H. A1 - Morse, Andrew P. A1 - Paeth, Heiko T1 - The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Malaria Risk due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Africa JF - Environmental Health Perspectives N2 - BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model. METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate. RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease. CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades. KW - climate change KW - West Africa KW - highland malaria KW - malaria KW - malaria model KW - malaria projection KW - Sahel KW - transmission KW - model KW - highlands KW - temperatures KW - validation KW - resurgence KW - scenarios KW - epidemic KW - deseases Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-135562 VL - 120 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Steinmann, Diana A1 - Paelecke-Habermann, Yvonne A1 - Geinitz, Hans A1 - Aschoff, Raimund A1 - Bayerl, Anja A1 - Bölling, Tobias A1 - Bosch, Elisabeth A1 - Bruns, Frank A1 - Eichenseder-Seiss, Ute A1 - Gerstein, Johanna A1 - Gharbi, Nadine A1 - Hagg, Juliane A1 - Hipp, Matthias A1 - Kleff, Irmgard A1 - Müller, Axel A1 - Schäfer, Christof A1 - Schleicher, Ursula A1 - Sehlen, Susanne A1 - Theodorou, Marilena A1 - Wypior, Hans-Joachim A1 - Zehentmayr, Franz A1 - van Oorschot, Birgitt A1 - Vordermark, Dirk T1 - Prospective evaluation of quality of life effects in patients undergoing palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases JF - BMC Cancer N2 - Background: Recently published results of quality of life (QoL) studies indicated different outcomes of palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases. This prospective multi-center QoL study of patients with brain metastases was designed to investigate which QoL domains improve or worsen after palliative radiotherapy and which might provide prognostic information. Methods: From 01/2007-01/2009, n=151 patients with previously untreated brain metastases were recruited at 14 centers in Germany and Austria. Most patients (82 %) received whole-brain radiotherapy. QoL was measured with the EORTC-QLQ-C15-PAL and brain module BN20 before the start of radiotherapy and after 3 months. Results: At 3 months, 88/142 (62 %) survived. Nine patients were not able to be followed up. 62 patients (70.5 % of 3-month survivors) completed the second set of questionnaires. Three months after the start of radiotherapy QoL deteriorated significantly in the areas of global QoL, physical function, fatigue, nausea, pain, appetite loss, hair loss, drowsiness, motor dysfunction, communication deficit and weakness of legs. Although the use of corticosteroid at 3 months could be reduced compared to pre-treatment (63 % vs. 37 %), the score for headaches remained stable. Initial QoL at the start of treatment was better in those alive than in those deceased at 3 months, significantly for physical function, motor dysfunction and the symptom scales fatigue, pain, appetite loss and weakness of legs. In a multivariate model, lower Karnofsky performance score, higher age and higher pain ratings before radiotherapy were prognostic of 3-month survival. Conclusions: Moderate deterioration in several QoL domains was predominantly observed three months after start of palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases. Future studies will need to address the individual subjective benefit or burden from such treatment. Baseline QoL scores before palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases may contain prognostic information. KW - breast cancer KW - brain tumours KW - survival KW - validation KW - symptoms KW - EORTC-QLQ-C15-PAL KW - EORTC-BN20 KW - whole-brain radiotherapy KW - partitioning analysis RPA KW - cancer patients KW - lung cancer KW - prognostic index KW - radiation oncology KW - clinical trials Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-135254 VL - 12 IS - 283 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Samimi, C. A1 - Fink, A. H. A1 - Paeth, H. T1 - The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population. KW - prediction KW - satellite rainfall products KW - tropical North-Africa KW - West-Africa KW - climate change KW - summer rainfall KW - variability KW - SST KW - teleconnection KW - validation Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-131790 VL - 12 IS - 2 SP - 313 EP - 325 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Güder, Gülmisal A1 - Brenner, Susanne A1 - Angermann, Christiane E. A1 - Ertl, Georg A1 - Held, Matthias A1 - Sachs, Alfred P. A1 - Lammers, Jan Willem A1 - Zanen, Peter A1 - Hoes, Arno W. A1 - Störk, Stefan A1 - Rutten, Frans H. T1 - "GOLD or lower limit of normal definition? a comparison with expert-based diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a prospective cohort-study" N2 - Background: The Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) defines COPD as a fixed postbronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second and forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) below 0.7. Agedependent cut-off values below the lower fifth percentile (LLN) of this ratio derived from the general population have been proposed as an alternative. We wanted to assess the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic capability of the GOLD and LLN definition when compared to an expert-based diagnosis. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, 405 patients aged ≥ 65 years with a general practitioner’s diagnosis of COPD were recruited and followed up for 4.5 (median; quartiles 3.9; 5.1) years. Prevalence rates of COPD according to GOLD and three LLN definitions and diagnostic performance measurements were calculated. The reference standard was the diagnosis of COPD of an expert panel that used all available diagnostic information, including spirometry and bodyplethysmography. Results: Compared to the expert panel diagnosis, ‘GOLD-COPD’ misclassified 69 (28%) patients, and the three LLNs misclassified 114 (46%), 96 (39%), and 98 (40%) patients, respectively. The GOLD classification led to more false positives, the LLNs to more false negative diagnoses. The main predictors beyond the FEV1/FVC ratio for an expert diagnosis of COPD were the FEV1 % predicted, and the residual volume/total lung capacity ratio (RV/TLC). Adding FEV1 and RV/TLC to GOLD or LLN improved the diagnostic accuracy, resulting in a significant reduction of up to 50% of the number of misdiagnoses. The expert diagnosis of COPD better predicts exacerbations, hospitalizations and mortality than GOLD or LLN. Conclusions: GOLD criteria over-diagnose COPD, while LLN definitions under-diagnose COPD in elderly patients as compared to an expert panel diagnosis. Incorporating FEV1 and RV/TLC into the GOLD-COPD or LLN-based definition brings both definitions closer to expert panel diagnosis of COPD, and to daily clinical practice. KW - Medizin KW - COPD diagnosis KW - lower limit of normal KW - GOLD KW - validation Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-75193 ER -