TY - JOUR A1 - Job, Hubert A1 - Bittlingmaier, Sarah A1 - Mayer, Marius A1 - von Ruschkowski, Eick A1 - Woltering, Manuel T1 - Park−People Relationships: The Socioeconomic Monitoring of National Parks in Bavaria, Germany JF - Sustainability N2 - Questions about park–people relationships and the understanding and handling of the conflicts that may result from the creation and management of national parks in the surrounding area are prerequisites for both successful park management and sustainable rural tourism development. This paper analyzes the roles that research may play in relation to park–people relationships in the context of the two oldest German national parks located in Bavaria. The different fields of action of national parks are used to identify the potential for conflict, using detailed case studies from the Bavarian Forest and Berchtesgaden National Parks using quantitative population surveys carried out in 2018. The overall attitude towards both national parks is overwhelmingly positive, with trust towards park administrations and the perceived economic benefits from rural tourism being the attitudes most strongly correlated to the overall level of park–people relationships. Nevertheless, some points of contention still exist, like the ecological integrity approach towards strict nature conservation and related landscape changes (e.g., deadwood cover). A comparison over time shows in both cases that the spatial proximity to the protected area negatively influences people’s attitudes towards the parks, but less so than in the past. Recommendations for national park management include communicating proactively and with greater transparency with locals and decision-makers, to identify conflicts earlier and, where possible, to eliminate them. Furthermore, developing a standardized method to monitor park–people relationships in Germany is a must and would benefit integrated approaches in research and management based on conservation social science. KW - park–people relationships KW - rural tourism KW - Germany KW - Bavaria KW - conflicts KW - national parks KW - Berchtesgaden KW - Bavarian Forest Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-245061 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 13 IS - 16 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ziegler, Katrin A1 - Pollinger, Felix A1 - Böll, Susanne A1 - Paeth, Heiko T1 - Statistical modeling of phenology in Bavaria based on past and future meteorological information JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology N2 - Plant phenology is well known to be affected by meteorology. Observed changes in the occurrence of phenological phases arecommonly considered some of the most obvious effects of climate change. However, current climate models lack a representationof vegetation suitable for studying future changes in phenology itself. This study presents a statistical-dynamical modelingapproach for Bavaria in southern Germany, using over 13,000 paired samples of phenological and meteorological data foranalyses and climate change scenarios provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM). Anomalies of severalmeteorological variables were used as predictors and phenological anomalies of the flowering date of the test plantForsythiasuspensaas predictand. Several cross-validated prediction models using various numbers and differently constructed predictorswere developed, compared, and evaluated via bootstrapping. As our approach needs a small set of meteorological observationsper phenological station, it allows for reliable parameter estimation and an easy transfer to other regions. The most robust andsuccessful model comprises predictors based on mean temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, and snow depth. Its averagecoefficient of determination and root mean square error (RMSE) per station are 60% and ± 8.6 days, respectively. However, theprediction error strongly differs among stations. When transferred to other indicator plants, this method achieves a comparablelevel of predictive accuracy. Its application to two climate change scenarios reveals distinct changes for various plants andregions. The flowering date is simulated to occur between 5 and 25 days earlier at the end of the twenty-first century comparedto the phenology of the reference period (1961–1990). KW - statistical modeling KW - phenology KW - Bavaria Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-232717 SN - 0177-798X VL - 140 ER -