TY - JOUR A1 - Figueiredo, Ludmilla A1 - Krauss, Jochen A1 - Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf A1 - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento T1 - Understanding extinction debts: spatio-temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research JF - Ecography N2 - Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics. KW - Anthropocene KW - biotic interaction KW - extinction dynamics KW - mechanistic modelling KW - time lag KW - transient dynamics Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-204859 VL - 42 IS - 12 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bowler, Diana E. A1 - Bjorkman, Anne D. A1 - Dornelas, Maria A1 - Myers‐Smith, Isla H. A1 - Navarro, Laetitia M. A1 - Niamir, Aidin A1 - Supp, Sarah R. A1 - Waldock, Conor A1 - Winter, Marten A1 - Vellend, Mark A1 - Blowes, Shane A. A1 - Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin A1 - Bruelheide, Helge A1 - Elahi, Robin A1 - Antão, Laura H. A1 - Hines, Jes A1 - Isbell, Forest A1 - Jones, Holly P. A1 - Magurran, Anne E. A1 - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Bates, Amanda E. T1 - Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes JF - People and Nature N2 - Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined. We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land‐use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world. We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo‐Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers. Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world. KW - Anthropocene KW - biodiversity threats KW - direct drivers KW - global change Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-213634 VL - 2 IS - 2 SP - 380 EP - 394 ER -