TY - JOUR A1 - Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie T1 - On the Relationship between Circulation Patterns, the Southern Annular Mode, and Rainfall Variability in Western Cape JF - Atmosphere N2 - This study investigates circulation types (CTs) in Africa, south of the equator, that are related to wet and dry conditions in the Western Cape, the statistical relationship between the selected CTs and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and changes in the frequency of occurrence of the CTs related to the SAM under the ssp585 scenario. Obliquely rotated principal component analysis applied to sea level pressure (SLP) was used to classify CTs in Africa, south of the equator. Three CTs were found to have a high probability of being associated with wet days in the Western Cape, and four CTs were equally found to have a high probability of being associated with dry days in the Western Cape. Generally, the dry/wet CTs feature the southward/northward track of the mid-latitude cyclone, adjacent to South Africa; anti-cyclonic/cyclonic relative vorticity, and poleward/equatorward track of westerlies, south of South Africa. One of the selected wet CTs was significantly related to variations of the SAM. Years with an above-average SAM index correlated with the below-average frequency of occurrences of the wet CT. The results suggest that through the dynamics of the CT, the SAM might control the rainfall variability of the Western Cape. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models indicated a possible decrease in the frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT associated with cyclonic activity in the mid-latitudes, and an increase in the frequency of the occurrence of CT associated with enhanced SLP at mid-latitudes. KW - Western Cape KW - Southern Annular Mode KW - circulation type KW - Africa south of the equator KW - mid-latitude cyclone Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-241018 SN - 2073-4433 VL - 12 IS - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie T1 - Revisiting the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa: the role of El Niño in the anomalies of atmospheric circulation types in Africa south of the equator JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology N2 - During strong El Niño events, below-average rainfall is expected in large parts of southern Africa. The 1992 El Niño season was associated with one of the worst drought episodes in large parts of South Africa. Using reanalysis data set from NCEP-NCAR, this study examined circulation types (CTs) in Africa south of the equator that are statistically related to the El Niño signal in the southwest Indian Ocean and the implication of this relationship during the 1992 drought episode in South Africa. A statistically significant correlation was found between the above-average Nino 3.4 index and a CT that features widespread cyclonic activity in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean, coupled with a weaker state of the south Indian Ocean high-pressure. During the analysis period, it was found that the El Niño signal enhanced the amplitude of the aforementioned CT. The impacts of the El Niño signal on CTs in southern Africa, which could have contributed to the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa, were reflected in (i) robust decrease in the frequency of occurrence of the austral summer climatology pattern of atmospheric circulation that favors southeasterly moisture fluxes, advected by the South Indian Ocean high-pressure; (ii) modulation of easterly moisture fluxes, advected by the South Atlantic Ocean high-pressure, ridging south of South Africa; (iii) and enhancement of the amplitude of CTs that both enhances subsidence over South Africa, and associated with the dominance of westerlies across the Agulhas current. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models suggested that the impact of radiative heating on the CT significantly related to El Niño might result in an anomalous increase in surface pressure at the eastern parts of South Africa. KW - South Africa KW - drought KW - El Niño Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-268569 SN - 1434-4483 VL - 146 IS - 1-2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie T1 - Circulation pattern controls of wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa JF - Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics N2 - Atmospheric circulation is a vital process in the transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants around the globe. The variability of rainfall depends to some extent on the atmospheric circulation. This paper investigates synoptic situations in southern Africa that can be associated with wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa, in addition to the underlying dynamics. Principal component analysis was applied to the T-mode matrix (variable is time series and observation is grid points at which the field was observed) of daily mean sea level pressure field from 1979 to 2018 in classifying the circulation patterns in southern Africa. 18 circulation types (CTs) were classified in the study region. From the linkage of the CTs to the observed rainfall data, from 11 stations in Free State, it was found that dominant austral winter and late austral autumn CTs have a higher probability of being associated with dry days in Free State. Dominant austral summer and late austral spring CTs were found to have a higher probability of being associated with wet days in Free State. Cyclonic/anti-cyclonic activity over the southwest Indian Ocean, explained to a good extent, the inter-seasonal variability of rainfall in Free State. The synoptic state associated with a stronger anti-cyclonic circulation at the western branch of the South Indian Ocean high-pressure, during austral summer, leading to enhanced low-level moisture transport by southeast winds was found to have the highest probability of being associated with above-average rainfall in most regions in Free State. On the other hand, the synoptic state associated with enhanced transport of cold dry air, by the extratropical westerlies, was found to have the highest probability of being associated with (winter) dryness in Free State. KW - South Africa KW - atmospheric circulation KW - circulation patterns Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-268552 SN - 1436-5065 VL - 133 IS - 5 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie A1 - Paeth, Heiko T1 - The Imprint of the Southern Annular Mode on Black Carbon AOD in the Western Cape Province JF - Atmosphere N2 - This study examines the relationship between variations of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and black carbon (BC) at 550 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Western Cape province (WC). Variations of the positive (negative) phase of the SAM are found to be related to regional circulation types (CTs) in southern Africa, associated with suppressed (enhanced) westerly wind over the WC through the southward (northward) migration of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude cyclones. The CTs related to positive (negative) SAM anomalies induce stable (unstable) atmospheric conditions over the southwestern regions of the WC, especially during the austral winter and autumn seasons. Through the control of CTs, positive (negative) SAM phases tend to contribute to the build-up (dispersion and dilution) of BC in the study region because they imply dry (wet) conditions which favor the build-up (washing out) of pollutant particles in the atmosphere. Indeed, recent years with an above-average frequency of CTs related to positive (negative) SAM anomalies are associated with a high (low) BC AOD over southwesternmost Africa. KW - black carbon AOD KW - Western Cape KW - southern annular mode KW - circulation type KW - air quality Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-248387 SN - 2073-4433 VL - 12 IS - 10 ER -