TY - THES A1 - Raßbach, Dörte T1 - Antiretrovirale Therapie der HIV-Infektion in Afrika : Erste Ergebnisse eines Behandlungsprogrammes in Namibia T1 - HIV-Infection-Antiretroviral-Therapy in Africa: First Findings of a Treatment-Programme in Namibia N2 - Machbarkeitsstudie bezüglich der Einführung Hochaktiver Antiretroviraler Therapie (HAART) in Namibia/Afrika. 1) Es erfolgt eine Dokumentation des Projektes(Therapieregime, örtliche Gegebenheiten, Personal, Einschluss-und Ausschlusskriterien) und 2) eine statistische Auswertung verschiedener Laborparameter (Leukozyten, Hb, Gewicht/BMI, CD4) unter der Therapie. 3) Untersuchung der Todesfälle mit der Frage nach prognostischer Vorhersagekraft verschiedener Parameter. 4) Ergebniss: Verbesserung von Lebensqualität und Lebensdauer betroffener Patienten durch die Therapie. Die weitere Einführung von HAART in afrikanischen Ländern wird ausdrücklich empfohlen. N2 - Feasibility-Study: Introduction of highly-active-antiretroviral-therapy (HAART) in namibia/africa. 1) Documantation of the project (medicamentous therapy, infrastructure, staff, inclusion/exclusion of patients). 2) Statistical analysis of different laboratory parameter (leukocyten, HB, weight/BMI, CD4)in the context of HAART. 3)Analyses of the laboratory parameter of death patients with the question if there is a possibility to see a tendency when these parameters are changing. 4) Findings: Improvement of life-quality and length of life in the context of therapy with HAART. The author advice the introduction of HAART in other african countries. KW - HIV KW - Retroviren KW - Ambulante Behandlung KW - Namibia KW - Entwicklungsländer KW - AIDS KW - Feasibility-Studie KW - HAART KW - HAART KW - HIV KW - Retrovirus KW - Africa KW - feasibility-study KW - Treatment KW - developing country Y1 - 2007 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-26444 ER - TY - THES A1 - Schmidt-Winter, Christiane T1 - Das Sexualverhalten verschiedener Bevoelkerungsgruppen im Lower Shire Valley in Malawi vor dem Hintergrund der HIV/AIDS-Epidemie - eine Planungsgrundlage für Interventionsmaßnahmen auf lokaler Ebene T1 - The sexulal behaviour of various ethnic groups of the Lower Shire Valley in Malawi analysed against the background of the HIV/AIDS epidemic - A basis for the pöanning of behaviour change interventions on a local level N2 - Forschungsthema: Das Verstaendnis von Sexualitaet und das sexuelle Verhalten verschiedener sich hinsichtlich ihres Abstammungssystems und ihrer kulturellen Herkunft unterscheidender Bevoelkerungsgruppen im Einzugsbereich eines laendlichen Krankenhauses im Sueden Malawis. Ziel: Erarbeiten einer Grundlage für die Planung unter lokalen Bedingungen durchfuehrbarer Interventionsmaßnahmen bezueglich der Ausbreitung von HIV/AIDS. Methoden: Standardisierte Interviews an 1077 Personen dienten der Erhebung von Daten zum Sexualverhalten. Problemzentrierte Interviews mit Repraesentanten von 38 Doerfern wurden dazu genutzt, das derzeitige Sexualitaetsverstaendnis der lokalen Bevoelkerung und die Aktualitaet traditioneller Praktiken im Zusammenhang mit Sexualitaet zu eruieren. Ergebnisse: Diese zeigten ein allgemein niedriges Einstiegsalter in sexuelle Aktivitaeten bei Frauen (im Mittel 17,0 J., beginnend mit 9 J.). Bei Maennern wurde der Beginn des Sexuallebens mit zunehmend niedrigerem Alter angegeben, je juenger sie waren (im Mittel 14,7 J. bei <20jaehrigen vs. 23,9 J. bei >40jaehrigen). Das Sexualverhalten d. Maenner unterschied sich von dem d. Frauen durch eine hoehere voreheliche (67% vs. 22%) und außereheliche (27% vs. 4%) sexuelle Aktivitaet und eine groeßere Zahl von Sexualpartnern. Die Gesamtzahl der Sexualpartner betrug bei ueber 1/4 der Maenner 5 oder mehr, waehrend Frauen nur in 13% mehr als 2 angaben. Eine hoehere Schulbildung fuehrte vor allem bei Maennern zu risikoreicherem Sexualverhalten aber auch zu einer hoeheren Bereitschaft, Praeventionsmaßnahmen zu ergreifen. Gebildetere Frauen hatten zwar ebenfalls vermehrt voreheliche Sexualkontakte, verschoben den Beginn ihres Sexuallebens aber ins spaetere Lebensalter. Auch bei ihnen ging eine hoehere Bildung mit haeufigerer Kondombenutzung einher, die aber im Allgemeinen niedrig war. Insgesamt zeigte sich eine große Differenz zwischen der Anzahl sexuell aktiver Personen und der verheirateter Personen in den juengeren Altersgruppen, wie sie typisch ist fuer Laender mit hoher HIV-Praevalenz. Traditionellen Praktiken, die riskantes Sexualverhalten beguenstigen oder involvieren wie Reinigungsrituale nach dem Tod eines Menschen (kupita kufa) und andere Uebergangsriten, wurde eine hohe Aktualitaet zugeschrieben. 8,7% der Frauen und 3,3% der Männer gaben an, ein solches Ritual mit einem anderen als ihrem Ehepartner durchgefuehrt zu haben. Matrilinearitaet foerderte bei Frauen einen frueheren Beginn sexueller Aktivitaet (16,1 vs. 17,7 J.). Patrilinearitaet dagegen beguenstigte den Einsatz fremder Sexualpartner bei sexualitaetsassoziierten Ritualen. Die Befragten machten deutlich, dass die Einhaltung sexueller Normen durch eine Reihe von Tabus geregelt werde und ihre Transgression eine mdulo genannte Krankheit (keine Krankheitsentitaet im westlichen Sinne) zur Folge haben koenne. Die Aehnlichkeit der Symptome und die Verursachung durch sexuelles Verhalten fuehren offenbar trotz einer generell hohen Aufgeklaertheit zum Thema HIV zu einer Verwechslung von AIDS mit mdulo. Symptome des letzteren wurden in der Befragung im gleichen Atemzug mit AIDS genannt. Verleugnungs- und Externalisierungstendenzen im Zusammenhang mit AIDS zeigten sich darin, dass AIDS kein einziges Mal als Todesursache eines Angehoerigen genannt wurde. Schlussfolgerungen: Generell sollte eine Verschiebung des Beginns sexueller Aktivitaet in ein hoeheres Lebensalter bei Maennern und bei Frauen angestrebt werden. Bei Maennern scheint es außerdem sinnvoll, auf eine Reduktion der Partnerzahl hinzuarbeiten. Die Position von Maedchen und jungen Frauen sollte gestaerkt werden, um ihnen eigenverantwortliche Entscheidungen hinsichtlich ihres Sexuallebens zu ermoeglichen. Kondome sollten verstaerkt propagiert werden, sowohl als Protektivum bei Gelegenheitssex als auch zum Schutz eines moeglicherweise nicht infizierten Partners innerhalb einer ehelichen Beziehung. Traditionelle Praktiken, die riskanten Sex involvieren, sollten nach Moeglichkeit zugunsten alternativer Methoden verlassen werden. Und schließlich sollte eine bessere Akzeptanz der Diagnose AIDS angestrebt werden bei gleichzeitiger Abgrenzung von AIDS gegen traditionelle Konzepte von mdulo. Maßnahmen auf lokaler Ebene: 1. Arbeit mit vulnerablen Personen: junge Maedchen und Frauen mit eher niedrigem Bildungsstatus, junge Maenner mit hoeherer Bildung, Gesundheitspersonal, Sexarbeiterinnen. 2. Arbeit mit Personen, die als Mediatoren sexueller Normen fungieren und Verhaltensaenderungen bewirken können. 3. Foerderung der Akzeptanz der Diagnose AIDS und Vorbeugung von Verleugnungs- und Externalisierungstendenzen durch Einrichtung von VCT, regelmaeßiges diagnostisches Testen und Propagieren sowie Ausgabe von Kondomen. N2 - Research subject: the perception of sexuality and the sexual behaviour of various population groups in the catchment area of a rural hospital in southern Malawi, which differed in their systems of descent and their cultural origins. Objective: to develop a basis for the planning of effective intervention measures against the spread of HIV/AIDS, which can be implemented under local conditions. Methods: Standardized interviews with 1077 persons served the collection of data about sexual behaviour. Problem-centred interviews with representatives of 38 villages were used to investigate the current perception of sexuality and the actuality of traditional practices associated with sexuality. Results: showed a comparatively low age at first sex among women (on average 17.0 yrs., beginning with 9 yrs.). Of men, the beginning of sexual life was reported at an increasingly lower age the younger they were (on average 14.7 yrs. in <20 year-olds versus 23.9 yrs. in >40 year-olds). The sexual behaviour of men differed from that of women by a higher premarital (67% vs. 22%) and extramarital (27% vs. 4%) sexual activity and a higher number of sexual partners. The total number of sex partners amounted to 5 or above in more than 1/4 of men while only 13% of women reported more than 2. Especially in men, a higher educational level entailed riskier sexual behaviour but also greater eagerness to take precautions. More educated women also had premarital sexual relations more frequently but shifted the onset of sexual activity to a later age. A higher education correlated with a higher incidence of condom use, which, however, was generally low. Altogether, the proportion of young people who were sexually active was much bigger than the proportion of those who were already married, as it is typical for African countries with a high HIV prevalence. A high actuality was attributed to traditional practices promoting or involving risky sexual behaviour, like cleansing rituals after a person’s death (kupita kufa) and other rites of passage. 8.7% of women and 3.3% of men reported they had performed such a ritual with a person other than their spouse. In women, matriliny favoured an early onset of sexual activity (16.1 vs. 17.7 yrs.). Patriliny, on the other hand, encouraged the involvement of outside sex partners for sexuality associated rituals. The participants stated that the observance of sexual norms was regulated by a series of taboos and that transgression against them might entail a disease called mdulo (no nosologic entity in the western sense). The similarity of symptoms and it‘s causation through sexual behaviour obviously lead to a confusion of AIDS with mdulo despite a generally high awareness and knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Symptoms of mdulo were reported in one breath with AIDS. Tendencies of denial and externalization showed as no one mentioned AIDS as the cause of a relative’s death. Conclusions: . In general, it should be aimed to shift the onset of sexual activity to a later age in men and in women. Moreover, in men, it apparently makes sense to work towards a reduction of the number of sexual partners. The position of girls and young women should be strengthened in order to enable them to make responsible decisions about their sexual life. The promotion of condoms as a precaution during casual sex as well as for the protection of the non-infected spouse within marriage should be intensified. Traditional practices that involve risky sex, if ever possible, should be abolished in favour of alternative methods. And, finally, it should be tried for a better acceptance of the diagnosis AIDS while at the same time discriminating between AIDS and traditional concepts of mdulo/tsempho. To achieve these objectives the following measures might be taken on a local level: 1. Working with vulnerable persons. Girls and young women with no or little education, young educated men, health personnel and sex workers. 2. Working with persons who are mediators of sexual norms and who are able to provoke a change of behaviour. 3. Promoting acceptance of the diagnosis AIDS and preventing tendencies of denial and externalization through the implementation of VCT, regular diagnostic testing and promotion and distribution of condoms. KW - HIV KW - AIDS KW - Sexualverhalten KW - Afrika KW - Malawi KW - HIV KW - AIDS KW - sexual behaviour KW - Africa KW - Malawi Y1 - 2004 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-13984 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Segueda, Wendpanga Eric T1 - Imported Religions, Colonialism and the Situation of Women in Africa N2 - Women are a key to development, and gender is crucial to development policies. However, Western development organisations often promote gender equality as something valued in the West, or even as a new idea altogether, rather than taking the time to research how it was rooted in African societies. The same holds true for many Africans who frequently argue that gender equality is a Western idea. This paper intents to show that gender equality or complementarity is not an altogether new phenomenon to African societies, but that it existed in pre-colonial Africa. Raising awareness on this within African societies can help to put in place strategies for gender equality and facilitate change from within. N2 - Frauen sind ein Schlüssel zur Entwicklung, und Gender-Aspekte nehmen eine Schlüsselrolle in Entwicklungsstrategien ein. Westliche Entwicklungshilfeorganisationen befördern die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter jedoch oft als Teil des “westlichen” Wertekanons beziehungsweise als grundsätzlich neues Konzept, ohne zu berücksichtigen, wie Gleichstellung in afrikanischen Gesellschaften verankert war. Gleiches gilt für viele afrikanische Vertreter, die die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter als westliches Konzept darstellen. Dieser Beitrag möchte zeigen, dass Gleichberechtigung für afrikanische Gesellschaften kein komplett neues Phänomen ist, sondern bereits im vorkolonialen Afrika existierte. Sensibilisierung für dieses Erbe kann dabei helfen, in afrikanischen Gesellschaften Strategien zur Gleichstellung der Geschlechter zu initiieren und Wandel von innen heraus zu ermöglichen. T3 - Schriftenreihe Junges Afrikazentrum (JAZ) - 3 KW - Afrika KW - Gleichberechtigung KW - Religion KW - Kolonialismus KW - women KW - religion KW - situation of women KW - colonialism KW - Africa Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-122400 SN - 2199-4315 ET - 1 ER - TY - THES A1 - Ikwuagwu, Onwumere A. T1 - INITIATION IN AFRICAN TRADITIONAL RELIGION : a systematic symbolic analysis, with special reference to aspects of Igbo Religion in Nigeria N2 - From the history of the Church, we gather that one of the most major tests that confronted the early Christian community was whether everyone who wanted to become a Christian also of necessity had to become a Jew as a pre-requisite for entrance into the new community of believers. The issue at stake is whether one qualifies to be a Christian through adherence to the Jewish identity, which centres on circumcision and the observance of the Mosaic legal code. The crisis resulted to the convocation of the Jerusalem Council (cf. Acts 15), which tasked itself with the definition of the Christian identity. The Council bases its definition of Christian identity, separable from adherence to the Jewish cultural practice (a form of cultural imperialism), solely on election by God in Jesus Christ. Moreover, the event of the Pentecost in Jerusalem demonstrated what the nature of the spreading of the message of this new community of believers in Jesus Christ should be: that people from other cultures, “Parthians, Medes and Elamites; people from Mesopotamia, Judaea and Capadocia, Ponthus and Asia, Phrygia and Pamphylis, Egypt and the parts of Libya around Cyrene; as well as visitors from Rome, Jews and Proselytes alike, Cretans and Arabs” (Acts 2: 9-11), could understand the message that Peter communicated to them through the force of the breath of the risen Jesus in their own mother tongue, without first becoming Jews. Against the background of this crucial point in the history of the early Church and in consideration of the Second Vatican Council, this dissertation seeks to address the problem of identity, unity and diversity in the Christian religion with special reference to Africa. It proposes that the traditional African Rites of Initiation that mark the transition from one stage of life to the other and therefore the existential and essential transformation of the individual and group offer with their rich symbolisms a very fertile ground for dialogue with the Christian religion. It views the various Rites of Initiation (from birth and ritual circumcision over puberty and adult to marriage and funeral rites) as vital and immutable seminal points in the life of the individual African and his/her society at large. These Rites that express in various ways the African holistic view and conception of life and reality are, in terms of their religious symbolism, meaning and function, analogous to their Christian counterparts (such as baptism, confirmation, Eucharist, ordination, marriage) and can as a result be conveniently accepted or at least incorporated even if in modified forms as authentic African initiation rites for African Christians. Without being syncretistic, such an incorporation and modification at one and the same time recognizes and respects the cultural identity of the African and marks his/her transformation and acceptance of his/her new identity, modelled on Christ. In this way, the African Christian will be enabled to live, articulate and express his/her faith within his/her own historical-cultural milieu. On the whole, the presentation is predictive and prescriptive with regard to what the relationship and dialogue between Christianity and the African Traditional Religion should be or should not be. It is an honest effort to make the Christian message relevant to the African in his/her own perceptual and conceptual world-view. This task remains a steady challenge to African Christians who want to maintain at one and the same time and at the same level their African identity and their Christian calling. The balancing and reconciling of these two identities in a correlating rather than confrontational manner remains a task for the Church of today and tomorrow. The dissertation is a foundational contribution to building up and sharpening consciousness for this problem. KW - Afrika KW - Naturreligion KW - Initiation KW - Christentum KW - Ibo KW - Initiation KW - Afrika KW - Afrikanische Traditionellle Religion KW - Symbolik KW - Igbo KW - Nigeria KW - Christentum KW - Sakrament KW - Inkulturation KW - Initiation KW - Africa KW - African Traditional Religion KW - symbolism KW - Igbo KW - Nigeria KW - Christianity KW - Sacrament KW - Inculturation Y1 - 2006 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-20008 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Emmerich, Petra A1 - Murawski, Carolin A1 - Ehmen, Christa A1 - von Possel, Ronald A1 - Pekarek, Neele A1 - Oestereich, Lisa A1 - Duraffour, Sophie A1 - Pahlmann, Meike A1 - Struck, Nicole A1 - Eibach, Daniel A1 - Krumkamp, Ralf A1 - Amuasi, John A1 - Maiga‐Ascofaré, Oumou A1 - Rakotozandrindrainy, Raphael A1 - Asogun, Danny A1 - Ighodalo, Yemisi A1 - Kann, Simone A1 - May, Jürgen A1 - Tannich, Egbert A1 - Deschermeier, Christina T1 - Limited specificity of commercially available SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG ELISAs in serum samples of African origin JF - Tropical Medicine & International Health N2 - Objectives Specific serological tests are mandatory for reliable SARS‐CoV‐2 diagnostics and seroprevalence studies. Here, we assess the specificities of four commercially available SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG ELISAs in serum/plasma panels originating from Africa, South America, and Europe. Methods 882 serum/plasma samples collected from symptom‐free donors before the COVID‐19 pandemic in three African countries (Ghana, Madagascar, Nigeria), Colombia, and Germany were analysed with three nucleocapsid‐based ELISAs (Euroimmun Anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2‐NCP IgG, EDI™ Novel Coronavirus COVID‐19 IgG, Mikrogen recomWell SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG), one spike/S1‐based ELISA (Euroimmun Anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG), and in‐house common cold CoV ELISAs. Results High specificity was confirmed for all SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG ELISAs for Madagascan (93.4–99.4%), Colombian (97.8–100.0%), and German (95.9–100.0%) samples. In contrast, specificity was much lower for the Ghanaian and Nigerian serum panels (Ghana: NCP‐based assays 77.7–89.7%, spike/S1‐based assay 94.3%; Nigeria: NCP‐based assays 39.3–82.7%, spike/S1‐based assay 90.7%). 15 of 600 African sera were concordantly classified as positive in both the NCP‐based and the spike/S1‐based Euroimmun ELISA, but did not inhibit spike/ACE2 binding in a surrogate virus neutralisation test. IgG antibodies elicited by previous infections with common cold CoVs were found in all sample panels, including those from Madagascar, Colombia, and Germany and thus do not inevitably hamper assay specificity. Nevertheless, high levels of IgG antibodies interacting with OC43 NCP were found in all 15 SARS‐CoV‐2 NCP/spike/S1 ELISA positive sera. Conclusions Depending on the chosen antigen and assay protocol, SARS‐CoV‐2 IgG ELISA specificity may be significantly reduced in certain populations probably due to interference of immune responses to endemic pathogens like other viruses or parasites. KW - SARS‐CoV‐2 KW - seroepidemiologic studies KW - immunoglobulin G KW - Enzyme‐Linked Immunosorbent Assay KW - specificity KW - Africa Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-239899 VL - 26 IS - 6 SP - 621 EP - 631 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knauer, Kim A1 - Gessner, Ursula A1 - Fensholt, Rasmus A1 - Forkuor, Gerald A1 - Kuenzer, Claudia T1 - Monitoring agricultural expansion in Burkina Faso over 14 years with 30 m resolution time series: the role of population growth and implications for the environment JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Burkina Faso ranges amongst the fastest growing countries in the world with an annual population growth rate of more than three percent. This trend has consequences for food security since agricultural productivity is still on a comparatively low level in Burkina Faso. In order to compensate for the low productivity, the agricultural areas are expanding quickly. The mapping and monitoring of this expansion is difficult, even on the basis of remote sensing imagery, since the extensive farming practices and frequent cloud coverage in the area make the delineation of cultivated land from other land cover and land use types a challenging task. However, as the rapidly increasing population could have considerable effects on the natural resources and on the regional development of the country, methods for improved mapping of LULCC (land use and land cover change) are needed. For this study, we applied the newly developed ESTARFM (Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model) framework to generate high temporal (8-day) and high spatial (30 m) resolution NDVI time series for all of Burkina Faso for the years 2001, 2007, and 2014. For this purpose, more than 500 Landsat scenes and 3000 MODIS scenes were processed with this automated framework. The generated ESTARFM NDVI time series enabled extraction of per-pixel phenological features that all together served as input for the delineation of agricultural areas via random forest classification at 30 m spatial resolution for entire Burkina Faso and the three years. For training and validation, a randomly sampled reference dataset was generated from Google Earth images and based on expert knowledge. The overall accuracies of 92% (2001), 91% (2007), and 91% (2014) indicate the well-functioning of the applied methodology. The results show an expansion of agricultural area of 91% between 2001 and 2014 to a total of 116,900 km\(^2\). While rainfed agricultural areas account for the major part of this trend, irrigated areas and plantations also increased considerably, primarily promoted by specific development projects. This expansion goes in line with the rapid population growth in most provinces of Burkina Faso where land was still available for an expansion of agricultural area. The analysis of agricultural encroachment into protected areas and their surroundings highlights the increased human pressure on these areas and the challenges of environmental protection for the future. KW - remote sensing KW - Africa KW - agriculture KW - Burkina Faso KW - data fusion KW - ESTARFM framework KW - irrigation KW - land surface phenology KW - Landsat KW - MODIS KW - plantation KW - protected areas KW - TIMESAT Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-171905 VL - 9 IS - 2 ER - TY - THES A1 - Beyer, Ulrike T1 - Regionale Niederschlagsänderungen in Namibia bei anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt T1 - Regional rainfall changes in Namibia under conditions of man-made enhanced greenhouse warming N2 - Diese Dissertation präsentiert Ergebnisse regionaler Niederschlagsabschätzungen für Namibia bei anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt, die mit der Methode des Statistischen Downscaling erzielt wurden. Über statistische Transferfunktionen werden Beziehungen zwischen großskaliger atmosphärischer Zirkulation und Namibischen Sommerregen aufgestellt. Dazu werden in einer 30-jährigen Kalibrierungsperiode Hauptkomponenten von Geopotentiellen Höhen verschiedener atmosphärischer Niveaus (300, 500, 1000hPa) mit den Niederschlagsmonatssummen (November bis März) von 84 Namibischen Stationen durch multiple Regressionsanalysen verknüpft, die für jede Station oder alternativ für Gitternetzniederschlagsdaten berechnet werden. Nach der Verifikation der statistischen Zusammenhänge in einem unabhängigen Zeitraum werden Regressionsmodelle jener Stationen bzw. Gitterpunkte selektiert, die mit signifikanten Korrelationen von r>0.4 zwischen beobachteten und modellierten Werten ausreichende Qualität garantieren. Diese Modelle werden eingesetzt, um unter Verwendung simulierter ECHAM3-T42 und ECHAM4tr-T42 Geopotentialdaten den lokalen Niederschlag für die jeweiligen Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien abzuschätzen. Als zusätzliche Methode, um die großskalige atmosphärische Zirkulation mit lokalen Stationsdaten zu verknüpfen, werden kanonische Korrelationsanalysen durchgeführt. Unabhängig von der Verfahrensweise resultieren für Klimabedingungen dreifacher bzw. transient ansteigender CO2-Konzentrationen im Vergleich zu einem Referenzzeitraum (1961-90) zunehmende Niederschläge in den nördlichen und östlichen Teilen Namibias von Dezember bis Februar. In den südlichen und südwestlichen Regionen sind von November bis Januar geringe Abnahmen zu verzeichnen. Die Abschätzungen für März zeigen einen deutlichen Rückgang der Niederschläge in ganz Namibia. Diese Ergebnisse weisen auf eine intensivierte, akzentuiertere Regenzeit hin, auch wenn die Gesamtmenge der Niederschläge unter Bedingungen des anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekts mehr oder weniger gleich bleibt. Daher ist es von besonderer Bedeutung, die Abschätzungen der Niederschlagsänderungen auf monatlicher Ebene durchzuführen. Weitere Untersuchungen beinhalten die Trennung thermischer und dynamischer Effekte in den zur Abschätzung herangezogenen ECHAM3 und ECHAM4 Zirkulationsdaten. Durch die globale Erwärmung kommt es zu einer Anhebung der Geopotentiellen Höhen der Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien. Durch die Korrektur des Uplifting-Prozesses werden dynamisch induzierte Auswirkungen auf das Niederschlagsgeschehen erfasst. Áus der Verwendung uplifting-korrigierter Geopotentialdaten als Prädiktoren in der Downscaling-Prozedur resultieren sowohl im positiven als auch negativen Bereich geringere Änderungsraten in den Abschätzungsergebnissen. Ohne Zweifel reagiert das Klimasystem auf den anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekt. In Bezug auf zukünftige Namibische Sommerregen ist es von besonderer Bedeutung die Auswirkungen des Treibhauseffekts regional und temporal zu differenzieren. N2 - This thesis presents results of regional rainfall assessments in Namibia, under conditions of man-made enhanced greenhouse warming. The results are obtained by statistical downscaling procedures. Relations between large-scale atmospheric circulation and Namibian summer rainfall are established by statistical transfer functions. For this purpose, principle components of geopotential heights of different atmospheric levels (300, 500, 1000hPa) and monthly rainfall data of 84 Namibian stations are linked by stepwise multiple regression analyses for every station, or alternatively for gridded rainfall data. The analyses were done on a monthly basis (November – March) during a 30-year calibration period. After verifying these statistical relations in an independent period, stations, or grids, with regression models of sufficient quality (significant correlation r>0.4 between observed and modeled data) are selected and used to assess local rainfall for greenhouse gas-scenarios from simulated ECHAM3-T42 and ECHAM4tr-T42 geopotential height data. As additional method to connect large scale circulation features with local station rainfall data, canonical correlation analyses are applied. Independent of the procedure, results for climate conditions of threefold respectively transient increase in CO2-concentrations, compared to a reference period (1961-90), show an increase of rainfall in northern and eastern parts of Namibia for December to February. Slight decreases in southern and southwestern regions from November to January are seen. Assessments for March indicate a distinct decrease over the whole country. These findings point to an intensified, more accentuated rainy season, however, the amount of rainfall remains more or less the same under conditions of enhanced greenhouse warming. Therefore it is of special importance to assess rainfall changes on a monthly basis. Further investigations consist of the separation of thermal and dynamical effects in ECHAM3 and ECHAM4 circulation data. Global warming produces a thermal uplifting of the geopotential heights used in climate change scenarios. By correction of this uplifting process, dynamical induced effects of rainfall events are captured. The use of uplifting corrected geopotential heights as predictors in the downscaling procedure in general leads to smaller changes of rainfall in the assessment results, both in positive and negative range. There is no doubt that the climate system reacts to man-made enhanced greenhouse warming. With regard to future Namibian summer rainfall, it is important to differentiate the effects of greenhouse warming on a regional and temporal scale. KW - Namibia KW - Niederschlag KW - Treibhauseffekt KW - Treibhausgas KW - Anthropogene Klimaänderung KW - Skalierbarkeit KW - Niederschlag KW - Namibia KW - Treibhauseffekt KW - Statistisches Downscaling KW - Regionale Klimamodellierung KW - Multiple Regressionsanalyse KW - Klimawandel KW - Rainfall KW - Namibia KW - greenhouse warming KW - statistical downscaling KW - regional climate modeling KW - multiple regression analyse KW - climate change KW - Africa Y1 - 2001 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-1181615 ER -