TY - THES A1 - Strauch, Ulrike T1 - Wassertemperaturbedingte Leistungseinschränkungen konventioneller thermischer Kraftwerke in Deutschland und die Entwicklung rezenter und zukünftiger Flusswassertemperaturen im Kontext des Klimawandels N2 - Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit werden konventionelle thermische Kraftwerke an deutschen Flüssen identifiziert, bei denen aufgrund hoher Flusswassertemperaturen im Zusammenhang mit wasserrechtlichen Grenzwerten Leistungseinschränkungen auftraten. Weiterhin wird aufgezeigt, wie sich die Wassertemperaturen der Flüsse in der Vergangenheit (rezent) entwickelt haben und wie sie sich zukünftig im Kontext des Klimawandels entwickeln könnten. Mittels Literaturrecherche, Medienanalyse und schriftlicher Befragung wurden konventionelle thermische Kraftwerke identifiziert, welche wassertemperaturbedingte Leistungseinschränkungen verzeichneten. Die meisten dieser Leistungseinschränkungen zwischen 1976 und 2007 zeigen sich bei großen Kraftwerken mit einer elektrischen Bruttoleistung über 300 Megawatt, bei Steinkohle- und Kernkraftwerken, bei Kraftwerken mit Durchlaufkühlung und bei solchen, die zwischen 1960 und 1990 in Betrieb gingen. Trendanalysen interpolierter und homogenisierter, rezenter Wassertemperaturzeitreihen deutscher Flüsse ergeben positive Trends v. a. im Frühjahr und Sommer. Die Zählstatistik zeigt in den Jahren 1994, 2003 und 2006 die meisten Tage mit sehr hohen und extrem hohen Wassertemperaturen in den Sommermonaten. In diesen Jahren traten gleichzeitig 63 % aller identifizierter wassertemperaturbedingter Leistungseinschränkungen bei Kraftwerken, meist zwischen Juni und August, auf. Für die Trendanalysen und den Mittelwertvergleich simulierter zukünftiger Wassertemperaturzeitreihen wurden drei Szenarien – B1, A1B und A2 sowie drei Zukunftsperioden 2011-2040, 2011/2041-2070, 2011/2071-2100 betrachtet. Es ergeben sich für die Zukunftsperiode 2011-2040 des A1B- oder A2-Szenarios in mindestens einem der Sommermonate eine Erwärmung und für das B1-Szenario negative oder keine Trends. Die mittleren Wassertemperaturen der Zukunftsperiode 2011-2040 zeigen in allen drei Szenarien gegenüber denen der Klimanormalperiode 1961-1990 positive Unterschiede in mindestens einem der Sommermonate. Für die beiden späteren Zukunftsperioden bis 2070 bzw. bis 2100 liegen in allen Wassertemperaturzeitreihen der drei Szenarien im Sommer positive Trends bzw. Differenzen gegenüber den mittleren Wassertemperaturen der Klimanormalperiode vor. Durch die Synthese der drei Analysen ist erkennbar, dass Isar, Rhein, Neckar, Saar, Elbe und Weser die meisten Kraftwerksstandorte mit wassertemperaturbedingten Leistungseinschränkungen verzeichnen. Es zeigen sich hier positive Trends sowohl in den rezenten als auch zukünftigen Wassertemperaturen für die Zukunftsperiode 2011-2040 des A1B- und A2-Szenarios in jeweils mindestens einem der Sommermonate. Gegenüber den mittleren Wassertemperaturen der Klimanormalperiode liegen für alle drei Szenarien positive Unterschiede der Wassertemperaturen vor. Bei einer Kraftwerkslaufzeit von 40-50 Jahren und einem Kernenergieausstieg 2022 bzw. 2034, werden 48-64 % bzw. 67-91 % der Kraftwerke mit wassertemperaturbedingten Leistungseinschränkungen bis 2022 bzw. 2034 außer Betrieb gehen. Bei einer Laufzeitverlängerung würden nach 2022 fünf der elf betroffenen Kernkraftwerke weiter am Netz bleiben. Somit kann es wieder zu wassertemperaturbedingten Leistungseinschränkungen kommen. In Deutschland sind nach wie vor große Kraftwerke an Flüssen geplant. Deren Kühlsysteme müssen entsprechend ausgewählt und konstruiert werden, um der zu erwartenden Erhöhung der Flusstemperaturen Rechnung zu tragen. N2 - The research described in this thesis identified a subset of German power plants that suffered from power generation reductions (WT-GR) due to high water temperature (WT) of the rivers along which they lie and due to statutory thresholds concerning mixed WT after waste heat discharge. An analysis of the recent WT and a prediction of those temperatures due to global warming were conducted. Power plants with WT-GR were identified based on a through literature search, scan of press releases and surveys. Most of WT-GR in the years between 1976 and 2007 occured in a) power plants with a gross power output of larger than 300 MW b) black coal and nuclear power plants c) power plants with once-through cooling system and d) power plants, which started operation between 1960 and 1990. Trend analysis of interpolated and harmonised recent WT of German rivers shows rising trends, predominantly in the spring and summer. Statistical analysis on numbers indicates most of days per year with either ‘very high’ or ‘extremely high’ WT in the years 1994, 2003 and 2006 in the summer. Those years also represent 63 % of all identified WT-GR, mostly between the months of June and August. The simulation of future WT considered three scenarios (named B1, A1B and A2) and three different time periods (TP) (2011-2040, 2011/2041-2070 and 2011/2071-2100). The trend analysis for 2011-2040 shows an increase in WT of the A1B and A2 scenario for at least one summer month and negative or no trends for the B1 scenario. Positive differences exist between mean WT of all three scenarios for TP 2011-2040 and mean WT of climate normal period (CNP) for at least one summer month. Estimates for the TP 2011/2041-2070 and 2011/2071-2100 and the three scenarios also show rising trends and an increase in mean WT in comparison to the CNP. Integration of above mentioned analyses indicates that plants along the rivers Isar, Rhine, Neckar, Saar, Elbe and Weser suffered most of WT-GR. Positive trends were identified by analyzing recent WT as well as the predictive WT for the period 2011-2040 and the scenarios A1B and A2 for at least one summer month. The average lifetime of a conventional thermal power plant in Germany is between 40 and 50 years. Hence it can be assumed that between 48-64 % and 67-91 %, respectively, of the power plants with an identified WT-GR will be decommissioned before 2022 and 2034, respectively, depending on the nuclear phaseout. In the case of hot summers further power generation reductions can be expected. The implication for new German power plants along rivers is that the selection, design and sizing of cooling systems must consider a further increase in river temperatures. T3 - Würzburger Geographische Arbeiten - 106 KW - Deutschland KW - Wärmekraftwerk KW - Fluss KW - Wassertemperatur KW - Klimaänderung KW - Germany KW - power plant KW - river KW - water temperature KW - global warming Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-231015 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ditzel, Pia A1 - König, Sebastian A1 - Musembi, Peter A1 - Peters, Marcell K. T1 - Correlation between coral reef condition and the diversity and abundance of fishes and sea urchins on an East African coral reef JF - Oceans N2 - Coral reefs are one of the most diverse marine ecosystems, providing numerous ecosystem services. This present study investigated the relationship between coral reef condition and the diversity and abundance of fishes, on a heavily fished East African coral reef at Gazi Bay, Kenya. Underwater visual censuses were conducted on thirty 50 × 5 m belt transects to assess the abundance and diversity of fishes. In parallel, a 25-m length of each of the same transects was recorded with photo-quadrats to assess coral community structure and benthic characteristics. For statistical analyses, multi-model inference based on the Akaike Information Criterion was used to evaluate the support for potential predictor variables of coral reef and fish diversity. We found that coral genus richness was negatively correlated with the abundance of macroalgae, whereas coral cover was positively correlated with both the abundance of herbivorous invertebrates (sea urchins) and with fish family richness. Similarly, fish family richness appeared mainly correlated with coral cover and invertebrate abundance, although no correlates of fish abundance could be identified. Coral and fish diversity were very low, but it appears that, contrary to some locations on the same coast, sea urchin abundance was not high enough to be having a negative influence on coral and fish assemblages. Due to increasing threats to coral reefs, it is important to understand the relationship among the components of the coral reef ecosystem on overfished reefs such as that at Gazi Bay. KW - coral reef ecosystem KW - coral reef resilience KW - global warming KW - climate change KW - overfishing KW - indicator species Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-284503 SN - 2673-1924 VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 14 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kerner, Janika M. A1 - Krauss, Jochen A1 - Maihoff, Fabienne A1 - Bofinger, Lukas A1 - Classen, Alice T1 - Alpine butterflies want to fly high: Species and communities shift upwards faster than their host plants JF - Ecology N2 - Despite sometimes strong codependencies of insect herbivores and plants, the responses of individual taxa to accelerating climate change are typically studied in isolation. For this reason, biotic interactions that potentially limit species in tracking their preferred climatic niches are ignored. Here, we chose butterflies as a prominent representative of herbivorous insects to investigate the impacts of temperature changes and their larval host plant distributions along a 1.4‐km elevational gradient in the German Alps. Following a sampling protocol of 2009, we revisited 33 grassland plots in 2019 over an entire growing season. We quantified changes in butterfly abundance and richness by repeated transect walks on each plot and disentangled the direct and indirect effects of locally assessed temperature, site management, and larval and adult food resource availability on these patterns. Additionally, we determined elevational range shifts of butterflies and host plants at both the community and species level. Comparing the two sampled years (2009 and 2019), we found a severe decline in butterfly abundance and a clear upward shift of butterflies along the elevational gradient. We detected shifts in the peak of species richness, community composition, and at the species level, whereby mountainous species shifted particularly strongly. In contrast, host plants showed barely any change, neither in connection with species richness nor individual species shifts. Further, temperature and host plant richness were the main drivers of butterfly richness, with change in temperature best explaining the change in richness over time. We concluded that host plants were not yet hindering butterfly species and communities from shifting upwards. However, the mismatch between butterfly and host plant shifts might become a problem for this very close plant–herbivore relationship, especially toward higher elevations, if butterflies fail to adapt to new host plants. Further, our results support the value of conserving traditional extensive pasture use as a promoter of host plant and, hence, butterfly richness. KW - Alps KW - altitudinal gradient KW - global warming KW - grazing KW - Lepidoptera KW - mountain biodiversity KW - plant–herbivore interactions KW - species range shifts KW - upslope shift Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-312015 VL - 104 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fricke, Ute A1 - Redlich, Sarah A1 - Zhang, Jie A1 - Benjamin, Caryl S. A1 - Englmeier, Jana A1 - Ganuza, Cristina A1 - Haensel, Maria A1 - Riebl, Rebekka A1 - Rojas‐Botero, Sandra A1 - Tobisch, Cynthia A1 - Uhler, Johannes A1 - Uphus, Lars A1 - Steffan‐Dewenter, Ingolf T1 - Earlier flowering of winter oilseed rape compensates for higher pest pressure in warmer climates JF - Journal of Applied Ecology N2 - Global warming can increase insect pest pressure by enhancing reproductive rates. Whether this translates into yield losses depends on phenological synchronisation of pests with their host plants and natural enemies. Simultaneously, landscape composition may mitigate climate effects by shaping the resource availability for pests and their antagonists. Here, we study the combined effects of temperature and landscape composition on pest abundances, larval parasitism, crop damage and yield, while also considering crop phenology, to identify strategies for sustainable management of oilseed rape (OSR) pests under warming climates. In all, 29 winter OSR crop fields were investigated in different climates (defined by multi‐annual mean temperature, MAT) and landscape contexts in Bavaria, Germany. We measured abundances of adult pollen beetles and stem weevil larvae, pollen beetle larval parasitism, bud loss, stem damage and seed yield, and calculated the flowering date from growth stage observations. Landscape parameters (proportion of non‐crop and OSR area, change in OSR area relative to the previous year) were calculated at six spatial scales (0.6–5 km). Pollen beetle abundance increased with MAT but to different degrees depending on the landscape context, that is, increased less strongly when OSR proportions were high (1‐km scale), interannually constant (5‐km scale) or both. In contrast, stem weevil abundance and stem damage did not respond to landscape composition nor MAT. Pollen beetle larval parasitism was overall low, but occasionally exceeded 30% under both low and high MAT and with reduced OSR area (0.6‐km scale). Despite high pollen beetle abundance in warm climates, yields were high when OSR flowered early. Thereby, higher temperatures favoured early flowering. Only among late‐flowering OSR crop fields yield was higher in cooler than warmer climates. Bud loss responded analogously. Landscape composition did not substantially affect bud loss and yield. Synthesis and applications: Earlier flowering of winter OSR compensates for higher pollen beetle abundance in warmer climates, while interannual continuity of OSR area prevents high pollen beetle abundance in the first place. Thus, regional coordination of crop rotation and crop management promoting early flowering may contribute to sustainable pest management in OSR under current and future climatic conditions. KW - canola KW - climate‐smart pest management KW - crop rotation KW - global warming KW - oilseed rape KW - pollen beetle KW - seed yield KW - stem weevil Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-312562 VL - 60 IS - 2 SP - 365 EP - 375 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Maihoff, Fabienne A1 - Friess, Nicolas A1 - Hoiss, Bernhard A1 - Schmid‐Egger, Christian A1 - Kerner, Janika A1 - Neumayer, Johann A1 - Hopfenmüller, Sebastian A1 - Bässler, Claus A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Classen, Alice T1 - Smaller, more diverse and on the way to the top: Rapid community shifts of montane wild bees within an extraordinary hot decade JF - Diversity and Distributions N2 - Aim Global warming is assumed to restructure mountain insect communities in space and time. Theory and observations along climate gradients predict that insect abundance and richness, especially of small‐bodied species, will increase with increasing temperature. However, the specific responses of single species to rising temperatures, such as spatial range shifts, also alter communities, calling for intensive monitoring of real‐world communities over time. Location German Alps and pre‐alpine forests in south‐east Germany. Methods We empirically examined the temporal and spatial change in wild bee communities and its drivers along two largely well‐protected elevational gradients (alpine grassland vs. pre‐alpine forest), each sampled twice within the last decade. Results We detected clear abundance‐based upward shifts in bee communities, particularly in cold‐adapted bumble bee species, demonstrating the speed with which mobile organisms can respond to climatic changes. Mean annual temperature was identified as the main driver of species richness in both regions. Accordingly, and in large overlap with expectations under climate warming, we detected an increase in bee richness and abundance, and an increase in small‐bodied species in low‐ and mid‐elevations along the grassland gradient. Community responses in the pre‐alpine forest gradient were only partly consistent with community responses in alpine grasslands. Main Conclusion In well‐protected temperate mountain regions, small‐bodied bees may initially profit from warming temperatures, by getting more abundant and diverse. Less severe warming, and differences in habitat openness along the forested gradient, however, might moderate species responses. Our study further highlights the utility of standardized abundance data for revealing rapid changes in bee communities over only one decade. KW - Alps KW - altitudinal gradient KW - body size KW - climate change KW - global warming KW - hymenoptera KW - pollinator KW - range shifts Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-312126 VL - 29 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reiners, Philipp A1 - Sobrino, José A1 - Kuenzer, Claudia T1 - Satellite-derived land surface temperature dynamics in the context of global change — a review JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics have been increasingly used to study various geophysical processes. This review provides an extensive overview of the applications of LST in the context of global change. By filtering a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 164 articles from 14 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, research topic, applied sensor, spatio-temporal resolution and scale and employed analysis methods. It was revealed that China and the USA were the most studied countries and those that had the most first author affiliations. The most prominent research topic was the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), while the research topics related to climate change were underrepresented. MODIS was by far the most used sensor system, followed by Landsat. A relatively small number of studies analyzed LST dynamics on a global or continental scale. The extensive use of MODIS highly determined the study periods: A majority of the studies started around the year 2000 and thus had a study period shorter than 25 years. The following suggestions were made to increase the utilization of LST time series in climate research: The prolongation of the time series by, e.g., using AVHRR LST, the better representation of LST under clouds, the comparison of LST to traditional climate change measures, such as air temperature and reanalysis variables, and the extension of the validation to heterogenous sites. KW - remote sensing KW - land surface temperature KW - temperature KW - dynamics KW - global change KW - climate change KW - global warming KW - earth observation KW - review Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-311120 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 15 IS - 7 ER -