TY  - RPRT
A1  - Bofinger, Peter
A1  - Haas, Thomas
T1  - R-Star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy
N2  - The necessary adjustments to prominent measures of the neutral rate of interest following the COVID pandemic sparked a wide-ranging debate on the measurement and usefulness of r-star. Due to high uncertainty about relevant determinants, trend patterns and the correct estimation method, we propose in this paper a simple alternative approach derived from a standard macro model. Starting from a loss function, neutral periods can be determined in which a neutral real interest rate is observable. Using these values, a medium-term trend for a neutral interest rate can be determined. An application to the USA shows that our simple calculation of a neutral interest rate delivers comparable results to existing studies. A Taylor rule based on our neutral interest rate also does a fairly good job of explaining US monetary policy over the past 60 years.
T3  - Würzburg Economic Papers (W. E. P.) - 106 
KW  - Zins
KW  - Neutral rate of interest
KW  - Geldpolitik
KW  - equilibrium real interest rate
KW  - monetary policy rules
Y1  - 2023
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-327394
ER  - 
TY  - RPRT
A1  - Bofinger, Peter
A1  - Geißendörfer, Lisa
A1  - Haas, Thomas
A1  - Mayer, Fabian
T1  - Credit as an Instrument for Growth: A Monetary Explanation of the Chinese Growth Story
N2  - This study describes the Chinese growth model over the past 40 years. We show that China's growth model, with its dominant role of the banking system and "the banker", is a perfect illustration of the necessity and power of Schumpeter's "monetary analysis". This approach has allowed us to elaborate theoretically and empirically the uniqueness of the Chinese model. In our empirical analysis, we use a new dataset of Chinese provincial data to analyze the impact of the financial system, especially banks, on Chinese economic development. We also empirically assess the role of the financial system in Chinese industrial policy and provide case studies of the effects of industrial policy in specific sectors. Finally, we also discuss macroeconomic dimensions of the Chinese growth process and lessons that can be drawn from the Chinese experience for other countries.
T3  - Würzburg Economic Papers (W. E. P.) - 107 
KW  - Industriepolitik
KW  - Bank-led Growth
KW  - China
KW  - Wirtschaftswachstum
KW  - Wirtschaftsentwicklung
KW  - Industrial Policy
KW  - China
KW  - Strategic Emerging Industries
KW  - Finance-growth nexus
KW  - Finance
KW  - Economic growth
KW  - Economic development
KW  - Bank credit
Y1  - 2023
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-328804
ER  -