TY - JOUR A1 - Elias, Johannes A1 - Heuschmann, Peter U. A1 - Schmitt, Corinna A1 - Eckhardt, Frithjof A1 - Boehm, Hartmut A1 - Maier, Sebastian A1 - Kolb-Mäurer, Annette A1 - Riedmiller, Hubertus A1 - Müllges, Wolfgang A1 - Weisser, Christoph A1 - Wunder, Christian A1 - Frosch, Matthias A1 - Vogel, Ulrich T1 - Prevalence dependent calibration of a predictive model for nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus JF - BMC Infectious Diseases N2 - Background Published models predicting nasal colonization with Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among hospital admissions predominantly focus on separation of carriers from non-carriers and are frequently evaluated using measures of discrimination. In contrast, accurate estimation of carriage probability, which may inform decisions regarding treatment and infection control, is rarely assessed. Furthermore, no published models adjust for MRSA prevalence. Methods Using logistic regression, a scoring system (values from 0 to 200) predicting nasal carriage of MRSA was created using a derivation cohort of 3091 individuals admitted to a European tertiary referral center between July 2007 and March 2008. The expected positive predictive value of a rapid diagnostic test (GeneOhm, Becton & Dickinson Co.) was modeled using non-linear regression according to score. Models were validated on a second cohort from the same hospital consisting of 2043 patients admitted between August 2008 and January 2012. Our suggested correction score for prevalence was proportional to the log-transformed odds ratio between cohorts. Calibration before and after correction, i.e. accurate classification into arbitrary strata, was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow-Test. Results Treating culture as reference, the rapid diagnostic test had positive predictive values of 64.8% and 54.0% in derivation and internal validation corhorts with prevalences of 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively. In addition to low prevalence, low positive predictive values were due to high proportion (> 66%) of mecA-negative Staphylococcus aureus among false positive results. Age, nursing home residence, admission through the medical emergency department, and ICD-10-GM admission diagnoses starting with “A” or “J” were associated with MRSA carriage and were thus included in the scoring system, which showed good calibration in predicting probability of carriage and the rapid diagnostic test’s expected positive predictive value. Calibration for both probability of carriage and expected positive predictive value in the internal validation cohort was improved by applying the correction score. Conclusions Given a set of patient parameters, the presented models accurately predict a) probability of nasal carriage of MRSA and b) a rapid diagnostic test’s expected positive predictive value. While the former can inform decisions regarding empiric antibiotic treatment and infection control, the latter can influence choice of screening method. KW - Methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus KW - Infection control KW - Clinical prediction rule KW - Predictive value of tests KW - False positive reactions KW - Calibration Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-96091 UR - http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/13/111 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weiß, Martin A1 - Gründahl, Marthe A1 - Deckert, Jürgen A1 - Eichner, Felizitas A. A1 - Kohls, Mirjam A1 - Störk, Stefan A1 - Heuschmann, Peter U. A1 - Hein, Grit T1 - Differential network interactions between psychosocial factors, mental health, and health-related quality of life in women and men JF - Scientific Reports N2 - Psychosocial factors affect mental health and health-related quality of life (HRQL) in a complex manner, yet gender differences in these interactions remain poorly understood. We investigated whether psychosocial factors such as social support and personal and work-related concerns impact mental health and HRQL differentially in women and men during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between June and October 2020, the first part of a COVID-19-specific program was conducted within the “Characteristics and Course of Heart Failure Stages A-B and Determinants of Progression (STAAB)” cohort study, a representative age- and gender-stratified sample of the general population of Würzburg, Germany. Using psychometric networks, we first established the complex relations between personal social support, personal and work-related concerns, and their interactions with anxiety, depression, and HRQL. Second, we tested for gender differences by comparing expected influence, edge weight differences, and stability of the networks. The network comparison revealed a significant difference in the overall network structure. The male (N = 1370) but not the female network (N = 1520) showed a positive link between work-related concern and anxiety. In both networks, anxiety was the most central variable. These findings provide further evidence that the complex interplay of psychosocial factors with mental health and HRQL decisively depends on gender. Our results are relevant for the development of gender-specific interventions to increase resilience in times of pandemic crisis. KW - anxiety KW - depression KW - human behaviour KW - quality of life Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-357858 VL - 13 ER -