TY - JOUR A1 - Malsch, Carolin A1 - Liman, Thomas A1 - Wiedmann, Silke A1 - Siegerink, Bob A1 - Georgakis, Marios K. A1 - Tiedt, Steffen A1 - Endres, Matthias A1 - Heuschmann, Peter U. T1 - Outcome after stroke attributable to baseline factors—the PROSpective Cohort with Incident Stroke (PROSCIS) JF - PLoS ONE N2 - Background The impact of risk factors on poor outcome after ischemic stroke is well known, but estimating the amount of poor outcome attributable to single factors is challenging in presence of multimorbidity. We aim to compare population attributable risk estimates obtained from different statistical approaches regarding their consistency. We use a real-life data set from the PROSCIS study to identify predictors for mortality and functional impairment one year after first-ever ischemic stroke and quantify their contribution to poor outcome using population attributable risks. Methods The PROSpective Cohort with Incident Stroke (PROSCIS) is a prospective observational hospital-based cohort study of patients after first-ever stroke conducted independently in Berlin (PROSCIS-B) and Munich (PROSCIS-M). The association of baseline factors with poor outcome one year after stroke in PROSCIS-B was analysed using multiple logistic regression analysis and population attributable risks were calculated, which were estimated using sequential population attributable risk based on a multiple generalized additive regression model, doubly robust estimation, as well as using average sequential population attributable risk. Findings were reproduced in an independent validation sample from PROSCIS-M. Results Out of 507 patients with available outcome information after 12 months in PROSCIS-B, 20.5% suffered from poor outcome. Factors associated with poor outcome were age, pre-stroke physical disability, stroke severity (NIHSS), education, and diabetes mellitus. The order of risk factors ranked by magnitudes of population attributable risk was almost similar for all methods, but population attributable risk estimates varied markedly between the methods. In PROSCIS-M, incidence of poor outcome and distribution of baseline parameters were comparable. The multiple logistic regression model could be reproduced for all predictors, except pre-stroke physical disability. Similar to PROSCIS-B, the order of risk factors ranked by magnitudes of population attributable risk was almost similar for all methods, but magnitudes of population attributable risk differed markedly between the methods. Conclusions Ranking of risk factors by population impact is not affected by the different statistical approaches. Thus, for a rational decision on which risk factor to target in disease interventions, population attributable risk is a supportive tool. However, population attributable risk estimates are difficult to interpret and are not comparable when they origin from studies applying different methodology. The predictors for poor outcome identified in PROSCIS-B have a relevant impact on mortality and functional impairment one year after first-ever ischemic stroke. KW - ischemic stroke KW - stroke KW - physical activity KW - diabetes mellitus KW - regression analysis KW - hemorrhagic stroke KW - atrial fibrillation KW - hypertension Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-177342 VL - 13 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wagner, Martin A1 - Ashby, Damien R. A1 - Kurtz, Caroline A1 - Alam, Ahsan A1 - Busbridge, Mark A1 - Raff, Ulrike A1 - Zimmermann, Josef A1 - Heuschmann, Peter U. A1 - Wanner, Christoph A1 - Schramm, Lothar T1 - Hepcidin-25 in diabetic chronic kidney disease is predictive for mortality and progression to end stage renal disease JF - PLoS One N2 - Background Anemia is common and is associated with impaired clinical outcomes in diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD). It may be explained by reduced erythropoietin (EPO) synthesis, but recent data suggest that EPO-resistance and diminished iron availability due to inflammation contribute significantly. In this cohort study, we evaluated the impact of hepcidin-25—the key hormone of iron-metabolism—on clinical outcomes in diabetic patients with CKD along with endogenous EPO levels. Methods 249 diabetic patients with CKD of any stage, excluding end-stage renal disease (ESRD), were enrolled (2003–2005), if they were not on EPO-stimulating agent and iron therapy. Hepcidin-25 levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. The association of hepcidin-25 at baseline with clinical variables was investigated using linear regression models. All-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of CKD progression (ESRD or doubling of serum creatinine) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models. Results Patients (age 67 yrs, 53% male, GFR 51 ml/min, hemoglobin 131 g/L, EPO 13.5 U/L, hepcidin-25 62.0 ng/ml) were followed for a median time of 4.2 yrs. Forty-nine patients died (19.7%) and forty (16.1%) patients reached the composite endpoint. Elevated hepcidin levels were independently associated with higher ferritin-levels, lower EPO-levels and impaired kidney function (all p<0.05). Hepcidin was related to mortality, along with its interaction with EPO, older age, greater proteinuria and elevated CRP (all p<0.05). Hepcidin was also predictive for progression of CKD, aside from baseline GFR, proteinuria, low albumin- and hemoglobin-levels and a history of CVD (all p<0.05). Conclusions We found hepcidin-25 to be associated with EPO and impaired kidney function in diabetic CKD. Elevated hepcidin-25 and EPO-levels were independent predictors of mortality, while hepcidin-25 was also predictive for progression of CKD. Both hepcidin-25 and EPO may represent important prognostic factors of clinical outcome and have the potential to further define “high risk” populations in CKD. KW - diabetes mellitus KW - inflammation KW - type 2 diabetes KW - hemoglobin KW - chronic kidney disease KW - anemia KW - ferritin KW - proteinuria Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-125514 VL - 10 IS - 4 ER -