TY - JOUR A1 - Yang, Xuting A1 - Yao, Wanqiang A1 - Li, Pengfei A1 - Hu, Jinfei A1 - Latifi, Hooman A1 - Kang, Li A1 - Wang, Ningjing A1 - Zhang, Dingming T1 - Changes of SOC content in China's Shendong coal mining area during 1990–2020 investigated using remote sensing techniques JF - Sustainability N2 - Coal mining, an important human activity, disturbs soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and decomposition, eventually affecting terrestrial carbon cycling and the sustainability of human society. However, changes of SOC content and their relation with influential factors in coal mining areas remained unclear. In the study, predictive models of SOC content were developed based on field sampling and Landsat images for different land-use types (grassland, forest, farmland, and bare land) of the largest coal mining area in China (i.e., Shendong). The established models were employed to estimate SOC content across the Shendong mining area during 1990–2020, followed by an investigation into the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on SOC content by a Geo-detector. Results showed that the models produced satisfactory results (R\(^2\) > 0.69, p < 0.05), demonstrating that SOC content over a large coal mining area can be effectively assessed using remote sensing techniques. Results revealed that average SOC content in the study area rose from 5.67 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 1990 to 9.23 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 2010 and then declined to 5.31 gC·Kg\(^{−1}\) in 2020. This could be attributed to the interaction between the disturbance of soil caused by coal mining and the improvement of eco-environment by land reclamation. Spatially, the SOC content of farmland was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of bare land was the lowest. SOC accumulation was inhibited by coal mining activities, with the effect of high-intensity mining being lower than that of moderate- and low-intensity mining activities. Land use was found to be the strongest individual influencing factor for SOC content changes, while the interaction between vegetation coverage and precipitation exerted the most significant influence on the variability of SOC content. Furthermore, the influence of mining intensity combined with precipitation was 10 times higher than that of mining intensity alone. KW - loess plateau KW - coal mining area KW - SOC content prediction KW - human disturbance KW - vegetation restoration KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-278939 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 14 IS - 12 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wabnitz, Katharina A1 - Schwienhorst-Stich, Eva-Maria A1 - Asbeck, Franziska A1 - Fellmann, Cara Sophie A1 - Gepp, Sophie A1 - Leberl, Jana A1 - Mezger, Nikolaus Christian Simon A1 - Eichinger, Michael T1 - National Planetary Health learning objectives for Germany: A steppingstone for medical education to promote transformative change JF - Frontiers in Public Health N2 - Physicians play an important role in adapting to and mitigating the adverse health effects of the unfolding climate and ecological crises. To fully harness this potential, future physicians need to acquire knowledge, values, skills, and leadership attributes to care for patients presenting with environmental change-related conditions and to initiate and propel transformative change in healthcare and other sectors of society including, but not limited to, the decarbonization of healthcare systems, the transition to renewable energies and the transformation of transport and food systems. Despite the potential of Planetary Health Education (PHE) to support medical students in becoming agents of change, best-practice examples of mainstreaming PHE in medical curricula remain scarce both in Germany and internationally. The process of revising and updating the Medical Licensing Regulations and the National Competency-based Catalog of Learning Objectives for Medical Education in Germany provided a window of opportunity to address this implementation challenge. In this article, we describe the development and content of national Planetary Health learning objectives for Germany. We anticipate that the learning objectives will stimulate the development and implementation of innovative Planetary Health teaching, learning and exam formats in medical schools and inform similar initiatives in other health professions. The availability of Planetary Health learning objectives in other countries will provide opportunities for cross-country and interdisciplinary exchange of experiences and validation of content, thus supporting the consolidation of Planetary Health learning objectives and the improvement of PHE for all health professionals globally. KW - climate change KW - curriculum development KW - education for sustainable healthcare KW - medical education KW - Planetary Health KW - Planetary Health Education KW - transformative education Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-306027 SN - 2296-2565 VL - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Villagomez, Gemma N. A1 - Nürnberger, Fabian A1 - Requier, Fabrice A1 - Schiele, Susanne A1 - Steffan-Dewenter, Ingo T1 - Effects of temperature and photoperiod on the seasonal timing of Western honey bee colonies and an early spring flowering plant JF - Ecology and Evolution N2 - Temperature and photoperiod are important Zeitgebers for plants and pollinators to synchronize growth and reproduction with suitable environmental conditions and their mutualistic interaction partners. Global warming can disturb this temporal synchronization since interacting species may respond differently to new combinations of photoperiod and temperature under future climates, but experimental studies on the potential phenological responses of plants and pollinators are lacking. We simulated current and future combinations of temperature and photoperiod to assess effects on the overwintering and spring phenology of an early flowering plant species (Crocus sieberi) and the Western honey bee (Apis mellifera). We could show that increased mean temperatures in winter and early spring advanced the flowering phenology of C. sieberi and intensified brood rearing activity of A. mellifera but did not advance their brood rearing activity. Flowering phenology of C. sieberi also relied on photoperiod, while brood rearing activity of A. mellifera did not. The results confirm that increases in temperature can induce changes in phenological responses and suggest that photoperiod can also play a critical role in these responses, with currently unknown consequences for real-world ecosystems in a warming climate. KW - Apis mellifera KW - climate change KW - rocus sieberi KW - phenology KW - plant–pollinator interaction KW - temporal mismatch Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-258770 VL - 11 IS - 12 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Uphus, Lars A1 - Lüpke, Marvin A1 - Yuan, Ye A1 - Benjamin, Caryl A1 - Englmeier, Jana A1 - Fricke, Ute A1 - Ganuza, Cristina A1 - Schwindl, Michael A1 - Uhler, Johannes A1 - Menzel, Annette T1 - Climate effects on vertical forest phenology of Fagus sylvatica L., sensed by Sentinel-2, time lapse camera, and visual ground observations JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Contemporary climate change leads to earlier spring phenological events in Europe. In forests, in which overstory strongly regulates the microclimate beneath, it is not clear if further change equally shifts the timing of leaf unfolding for the over- and understory of main deciduous forest species, such as Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech). Furthermore, it is not known yet how this vertical phenological (mis)match — the phenological difference between overstory and understory — affects the remotely sensed satellite signal. To investigate this, we disentangled the start of season (SOS) of overstory F.sylvatica foliage from understory F. sylvatica foliage in forests, within nine quadrants of 5.8 × 5.8 km, stratified over a temperature gradient of 2.5 °C in Bavaria, southeast Germany, in the spring seasons of 2019 and 2020 using time lapse cameras and visual ground observations. We explained SOS dates and vertical phenological (mis)match by canopy temperature and compared these to Sentinel-2 derived SOS in response to canopy temperature. We found that overstory SOS advanced with higher mean April canopy temperature (visual ground observations: −2.86 days per °C; cameras: −2.57 days per °C). However, understory SOS was not significantly affected by canopy temperature. This led to an increase of vertical phenological mismatch with increased canopy temperature (visual ground observations: +3.90 days per °C; cameras: +2.52 days per °C). These results matched Sentinel-2-derived SOS responses, as pixels of higher canopy height advanced more by increased canopy temperature than pixels of lower canopy height. The results may indicate that, with further climate change, spring phenology of F. sylvatica overstory will advance more than F. sylvatica understory, leading to increased vertical phenological mismatch in temperate deciduous forests. This may have major ecological effects, but also methodological consequences for the field of remote sensing, as what the signal senses highly depends on the pixel mean canopy height and the vertical (mis)match. KW - overstory KW - understory KW - Sentinel-2 KW - time lapse cameras KW - vertical mismatch KW - phenological escape KW - climate change KW - European beech Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-248419 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 13 IS - 19 ER - TY - THES A1 - Tran, Nam Binh T1 - Climate change assessment in Southeast Asia and implications for agricultural production in Vietnam T1 - Der Klimawandel : Beurteilung in Südostasien und Implikationen für die landwirtschaftliche Produktion in Vietnam N2 - Seit vielen Jahren ist die Erforschung von Klimawandel und -schwankungen das zentrale Thema der Klimatologie. Besonderes deutlich wird dies anhand der IPCC-Berichte, ebenso wie der zahlreichen Einzelstudien zur Entwicklung des Klimas auf unterschiedlichsten raum-zeitlichen Skalen. Insbesondere seit den 1980er Jahren befassen sich zahlreiche Forschungsgruppen weltweit mit der systematischen Sammlung, Aufbereitung und auch Auswertung von Klimadaten. Diese Datengrundlage erlaubt Analysen zur Entwicklung der globalen Lufttemperatur, des Niederschlags und anderer Klimaelemente (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen und Lebedeff, 1987; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). Das wichtigste übergreifende Ergebnis dieser Untersuchungen ist die Feststellung einer globalen Erwärmung während des 20. Jahrhunderts, die sich in den beiden letzten Jahrzehnten besonders intensivierte. Abschätzungen über die Art und Stärke des Klimawandels auf größeren, planungsrelevanten Massstäben sind jedoch nach wie vor mit großen Unsicherheiten verbunden. Für eine detailliertere Erforschung der Auswirkungen der globalen Erwärmung auf regionaler oder gar lokaler Ebene besteht daher noch großer Forschungsbedarf. In dieser Dissertation wird zu diesem Zweck ein statistischer Ansatz verfolgt. Dieser erlaubt die Identifikation systematischer Unterschiede zwischen den Ausprägungen klimatologischer Feldgrößen (bodennahe Lufttemperatur und Niederschlag) wie sie von sogenannten General Circulation Models (GCMs) simuliert werden im Vergleich zu den betreffenden Parametern aus Beobachtungsdaten. Als Beobachtungsdaten werden die NCEP Reanalysen, die statistisch interpolierten Datensätze der CRU sowie Stationsdaten aus Vietnam verwendet. Hierbei zeigt sich, dass die aktuellen Klimamodelle die räumlichen Muster der betrachteten Variablen in befriedigender Weise reproduzieren. Die Analyse des regionalen Klimawandels in Südost-Asien erfolgt durch die Auswertung von Klimamodellrechnungen. Diese wurden von verschiedenen GCMs durchgeführt, wobei unterschiedliche Annahmen über die zukünftigen Treibhausgasemissionen berücksichtigt wurden. Der Fokus dieser Dissertation ist die Analyse der projizierten zeitlichen Entwicklung von bodennaher Temperatur und Niederschlag im 21. Jahrhundert. Hierbei werden sowohl jährliche als auch saisonale Mittelwerte bzw. Summen berücksichtigt. Neben diesen rein physikalisch-klimatologischen Betrachtungen behandelt diese Dissertation auch einen angewandten Aspekt, nämlich den Impakt des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft, exemplarisch untersucht am Beispiel Vietnams. Für die Abschätzung der Vulnerabilität dieses essentiellen Wirtschaftsbereiches wird ein statistisches Modell entwickelt in das an klimatischen Parametern die bodennahe temperatur sowie der Niederschlag einfliessen. Diese Untersuchung leistet damit einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Wissenstand über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels in den niederen Breiten. Die sozio-ökonomische Entwicklung jedes Staates der Erde wird von den Folgen des Klimawandels beeinflusst, allerdings variiert der Grad der Beeinträchtigung erheblich. Vermutlich werden Entwicklungsländer wie Vietnam die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels besonders stark zu spüren bekommen. Die Ursachen für diese hohe Vulnerabilität liegen unter anderem in der Wirtschaftsstruktur: der allgemein hohe Stellenwert natürlicher Ressourcen und eine geringe Diversität verringern hier die Möglichkeiten zur Adaption an die beobachteten und projizierten Veränderungen. Die vorliegende Dissertation gliedert sich wie folgt: In Kapitel 1 stellt eine allgemeine Einführung zur Thematik dar. Die Begriffe Klima und Klimawandel sowie einige übliche Modelle zum Klimawandel, verbunden mit einer Abwägung der spezifischen Vor- und Nachteile, werden erläutert. Kapitel 2 beschäftigt sich mit der Methodik. Hier werden die räumliche Interpolation sowie die angewendeten explorativen und inferentiellen statistischen Verfahren diskutiert. Die Kapitel 3 und 4 beschreiben die Datengrundlage und die betrachtete Region. Im Kapitel 5 werden die Untersuchungsergebnisse dargelegt. In Kapitel 6 erfolgt die Abschlussbetrachtung und ein Ausblick auf die Zukunft. Am Ende der Dissertation finden sich die verwendeten Quellen sowie ein Appendix mit landwirtschaftlichen Daten. N2 - For many years, the study of climatic changes and variations has become the main objective of climatic research, as has been appreciated in the IPCC's reports and several publications regarding climatic evolution on different space-time scales. Since the 80's, many research groups have generated the extensive database from which the analysis of temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters has been performed on a global scale (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987, 1988; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). The most important result of these research projects is the evidence of global warming during the 20th century, especially in the last two decades. However, numerous challenges still exist about the structure and dimension of the climatic change on a considerable scale. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on a local and regional scale that allow for a more precise evaluation of the global warming phenomenon. A statistical analysis approach was developed to identify systematic differences between large-scale climatic variable from the General Circulation Models (GCM), NCEP, CRU re-analysis data set and climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation data). Models are able to satisfactorily reproduce the spatial patterns of the regional temperature and precipitation field. The response of the climate system to various emission scenario simulated by the GCM was used to analyze and predict the local climate change. The main objective of this study is to analysis the time evolution of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation during the 21st century and in order to contribute to our knowledge of temperature and precipitation trends over the century on a regional scale, not only in Southeast Asia but also in Vietnam; the study focuses to develop a dynamical – statistical model describing the relationship between the major climate variation and agricultural production in Vietnam. This study will be an important contribution to the present-day assessment of climate change impacts in the low latitudes. Regional scenarios of climate change, including both rainfall and mean temperature were then used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the region in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the system to global warming. Climate change has adverse impacts on the socio - economic development of all nations. But the degree of the impact will vary across nations. It is expected that changes in the earth's climate will impact on developing countries like Vietnam, in particular, hardest because their economies are strongly dependent on crude forms of natural resources and their economic structure is less flexible to adjust to such drastic changes. In Chapter 1: Introduction and background I describe in general terms climate, climate change, climate change model with benefits and problems. Chapter 2: methodology discusses the methods including interpolation, validation, clustering, correlation and regression which were applied in the study. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 describe the database and study area. The most important is chapter 5 Results. The last is chapter 6 Conclusion and outlook followed by the reference list and an appendix. KW - Klimaänderung KW - Südostasien KW - agrarwirtschaftliche Produktion KW - Vietnam KW - agricultural production KW - climate change Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-64570 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thorn, Simon A1 - Chao, Anne A1 - Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus A1 - Chen, Yan-Han A1 - Georgiev, Kostadin B. A1 - Heibl, Christoph A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Schäfer, Hanno A1 - Bässler, Claus T1 - Rare species, functional groups, and evolutionary lineages drive successional trajectories in disturbed forests JF - Ecology N2 - Following natural disturbances, additional anthropogenic disturbance may alter community recovery by affecting the occurrences of species, functional groups, and evolutionary lineages. However, our understanding of whether rare, common, or dominant species, functional groups, or evolutionary lineages are most strongly affected by an additional disturbance, particularly across multiple taxa, is limited. Here, we used a generalized diversity concept based on Hill numbers to quantify the community differences of vascular plants, bryophytes, lichens, wood‐inhabiting fungi, saproxylic beetles, and birds in a storm‐disturbed, experimentally salvage logged forest. Communities of all investigated species groups showed dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots. Most species groups showed no significant changes in dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots over the first seven years of succession, indicating a lack of community recovery. In general, the dissimilarities of communities were mainly driven by rare species. Convergence of dissimilarities occurred more often than divergence during the early stages of succession for rare species, indicating a major role in driving decreasing taxonomic dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots over time. Trends in species dissimilarities only partially match the trends in dissimilarities of functional groups and evolutionary lineages, with little significant changes in successional trajectories. Nevertheless, common and dominant species contributed to a convergence of dissimilarities over time in the case of the functional dissimilarities of wood‐inhabiting fungi. Our study shows that salvage logging following disturbances can alter successional trajectories in early stages of forest succession following natural disturbances. However, community changes over time may differ remarkably in different taxonomic groups and are best detected based on taxonomic, rather than functional or phylogenetic dissimilarities. KW - wood-inhabiting fungi KW - birds KW - bryophytes KW - climate change KW - forest succession KW - Hill numbers KW - natural disturbances KW - salvage logging KW - saproxylic beetles KW - vascular plants Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-212378 VL - 101 IS - 3 ER - TY - THES A1 - Streckel, Christian T1 - Migration im Kontext von Umwelteinflüssen und Klimawandel T1 - Migration in Context of Environmental and Climate Change N2 - Klimawandelbedingte bzw. potenziell klimawandelbedingte Umweltmigration ist ein sehr komplexes und breites Feld. Es existiert eine Fülle von Studien, die sich in ihrer Herangehensweise unterscheiden, weshalb hier ein Systematisierungsvorschlag aufgezeigt wird. Mittels einer an den Richtlinien der Grounded Theory orientierten Analyse wurden Studien auf zentrale gemeinsame Kategorien hin untersucht und als Modell präsentiert. Dieses stellt jedoch kein abgeschlossenes System dar, sondern dient durch seine Offenheit als Gerüst, das mit Ergebnissen aus weiteren Fallstudien gefestigt werden kann. N2 - (Potentially) climate change-induced migration constitutes a complex and broad field of research. A multitude of studies exists with different approaches to the topic. Within this range of approaches, it is the aim of this research to make a proposal for a systematisation of the topic. By carrying out a Grounded Theory-oriented analysis, we screened case studies for common categories to provide a conceptual model. The result of the investigation is a framework which can be extended by findings of other case studies. KW - Anthropogene Klimaänderung KW - Umweltmigration KW - environmental migration KW - Umweltveränderung KW - Migration KW - Klimamigration KW - Klimawandel KW - (potenziell) klimawandelbedingte Umweltmigration KW - Grounded Theory KW - climate change-induced migration KW - climate change KW - (potentially) climate change-induced environmental changes Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-102334 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Simon, Johanna A1 - Parisi, Sandra A1 - Wabnitz, Katharina A1 - Simmenroth, Anne A1 - Schwienhorst-Stich, Eva-Maria T1 - Ten characteristics of high-quality planetary health education BT - results from a qualitative study with educators, students as educators and study deans at medical schools in Germany JF - Frontiers in Public Health N2 - Aim: The climate and ecological crises are considered fundamental threats to human health. Healthcare workers in general and doctors in particular can contribute as change agents in mitigation and adaptation. Planetary health education (PHE) aims to harness this potential. This study explores perspectives among stakeholders involved in PHE at German medical schools on the characteristics of high-quality PHE and compares them to existing PHE frameworks. Methods: In 2021, we conducted a qualitative interview study with stakeholders from German medical schools involved in PHE. Three different groups were eligible: faculty members, medical students actively involved in PHE, and study deans of medical schools. Recruitment was performed through national PHE networks and snowball sampling. Thematic qualitative text analysis according to Kuckartz was used for the analysis. Results were systematically compared to three existing PHE frameworks. Results: A total of 20 participants (13 female) from 15 different medical schools were interviewed. Participants covered a wide range of professional backgrounds and experience in PHE education. The analysis revealed ten key themes: (1) Complexity and systems thinking, (2) inter- and transdisciplinarity, (3) ethical dimension, (4) responsibility of health professionals, (5) transformative competencies including practical skills, (6) space for reflection and resilience building, (7) special role of students, (8) need for curricular integration, (9) innovative and proven didactic methods, and (10) education as a driver of innovation. Six of our themes showed substantial overlap with existing PHE frameworks. Two of our themes were only mentioned in one of the frameworks, and two others were not explicitly mentioned. Few important elements of the frameworks did not emerge from our data. Conclusions: In the light of increased attention regarding the connections of the climate and ecological crises and health, our results can be useful for anyone working toward the integration of planetary health into medical schools' and any health professions' curricula and should be considered when designing and implementing new educational activities. KW - climate change KW - climate resilience KW - planetary health KW - planetary health education KW - medical education KW - transformative education KW - education for sustainable healthcare KW - eco health Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-313856 SN - 2296-2565 VL - 11 ER - TY - THES A1 - Seybold, Marc T1 - Internationale Umweltregime - neue Formen der Konfliktbearbeitung in der internationalen Politik? Untersuchungen am Beispiel des Klimaschutzregimes : eine integrative regimetheoretische Untersuchung zum Einfluß von Nichtregierungsorganisationen und Wissenschaftlicher Gemeinschaften auf das internationale Klimaschutzregime T1 - International Evironmental Regimes - New Forms of Cooperation on the Field of International Politics? An Investigation of the International Regime on Climate Change. A scientific Investigation concerning the Influence of NGOs and Scientific Communities on the International Regime on Climate Change N2 - Die Arbeit untersucht den Einfluss von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NGOs)und Wissenschaftlicher Gemeinschaften auf Internationale Regime. Ausgehend vom Kooperationsproblem in einer anarchischen Staatenwelt wird der Leistungsbeitrag der beiden nichtstaatlichen Akteure auf das Zustandekommen von Kooperation analysiert und seine schwankende Rolle im Verlauf des Regimeprozesses untersucht. Das Fallbeispiel bildet dabei das internationale Klimaschutzregime, wobei der Untersuchungszeitraum von den ersten Anfängen der Thematisierung des Klimawandels bis hin zu der in Marrakesch erreichten Ausformulierung des Kyoto-Protokolls reicht. N2 - The thesis investigates the influence of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and scientific communities on international regimes. Starting with the problem of cooperation in an anarchical world the thesis analyses the performance of the two non-state actors on achieving international cooperation and their varying role during the negotiation process. The case study focusses on the International Regime on Climate Change. The period of investigation starts with the beginning of the discussions on climate change and ends with the "Marrakesh Accords" which build the final point of the formulation of the "Kyoto Protocol". KW - Umweltschutz KW - Internationales Regime KW - Internationale Regime KW - Nichtregierungsorganisationen KW - NGOs KW - Wissenschaftliche Gemeinschaften KW - Klimaschutz KW - International Regimes KW - non-governmental organizations KW - NGOs KW - scientific communities KW - climate change Y1 - 2003 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-12403 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Samimi, C. A1 - Fink, A. H. A1 - Paeth, H. T1 - The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population. KW - prediction KW - satellite rainfall products KW - tropical North-Africa KW - West-Africa KW - climate change KW - summer rainfall KW - variability KW - SST KW - teleconnection KW - validation Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-131790 VL - 12 IS - 2 SP - 313 EP - 325 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Saddique, Naeem A1 - Usman, Muhammad A1 - Bernhofer, Christian T1 - Simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrological regimes of a sparsely gauged mountainous basin, northern Pakistan JF - Water N2 - Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change. KW - water balance KW - hydrological regime KW - evapotranspiration KW - uncertainties KW - climate change KW - SWAT Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-193175 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 11 IS - 10 ER - TY - THES A1 - Roth, Nicolas Mériadec Max André T1 - Temporal development of communities with a focus on insects, in time series of one to four decades T1 - Entwicklung von Artengemeinschaften in der Zeit mit einem Fokus auf Insekten in Zeitreihen von einer bis vier Dekaden N2 - Changes and development are fundamental principles in biocenoses and can affect a multitude of ecological processes. In insect communities phenological and density changes, changes in species richness and community composition, as well as interactions between those changes, are the most important macro processes. However, climate change and other factors like habitat degradation and loss alter these processes leading to shifts and general biodiversity declines. Even though knowledge about insect decline in central Europe increased during the last decades, there are significant knowledge gaps about the development of insect communities in certain habitats and taxa. For example, insect communities in small lentic as well as in forested habitats are under-sampled and reported to be less endangered than communities in other habitats. Furthermore, the changes within habitats and taxa are additionally influenced by certain traits, like host or feeding specialization. To disentangle these influences and to increase the knowledge about the general long-term development of insect communities, comprehensive long-term monitoring studies are needed. In addition, long-term effects of conservation strategies should also be evaluated on large time scales in order to be able to decide on a scientific base which strategies are effective in promoting possibly declining taxa. Hence, this thesis also tackles the effects of an integrative conservation strategy on wood dependent beetle and fungi, beside the development of water beetle and macro moth communities over multiple decades. In Chapter 2 I present a study on the development of water beetle communities (Dytiscidae, Haliplidae, Noteridae) in 33 water bodies in Southern Germany from 1991 to 2018. Time-standardized capture per waterbody was used during three periods: between 1991 and 1995, 2007 and 2008, and 2017 and 2018. Results showed annual declines in both species number (ca. -1%) and abundance (ca. -2%). In addition, community composition shifted over time in part due to changing pH values. Hence, the recorded changes during the 28-year study period partly reflect natural succession processes. However, since also moor-related beetle species decreased significantly, it is likely that water beetles in southern Germany are also threatened by non-successional factors, including desiccation, increased nitrogen input and/or mineralization, as well as the loss of specific habitats. The results suggest, that in small to midsize lentic waterbodies, current development should aim for constant creation of new water bodies and protection of moor waterbodies in order to protect water beetle communities on a landscape scale. In Chapter 3 I present an analysis of the development of nocturnal macro moth species richness, abundance and biomass over four decades in forests of southern Germany. Two local scale data sets featuring a coppiced oak forest as well as an oak high forest were analysed separately from a regional data set representing all forest types in the temperate zone of Central Europe. At the regional scale species richness, abundance and biomass showed annual declines of ca. 1 %, 1.3 % and 1.4 %, respectively. These declines were more pronounced in plant host specialists and in dark coloured species. In contrast, species richness increased by ca. 1.5 % annually in the coppiced forest, while no significant trends were found in the high forest. In contrast to past assumptions, insect decline apparently affects also hyper diverse insect groups in forests. Since host specialists and dark coloured species were affected more heavily by the decline than other groups, habitat loss and climate change seem to be potential drivers of the observed trends. However, the positive development of species richness in the coppiced oak forest indicates that maintaining complex and diverse forest ecosystems through active management might compensate for negative trends in biodiversity. Chapter 4 features a study specifically aiming to investigate the long-term effect of deadwood enrichment as an integrative conservation strategy on saproxylic beetles and fungi in a central European beech forest at a landscape scale. A before–after control–impact design, was used to compare assemblages and gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms (beetles and fungi) in strictly protected old-growth forest areas (reserves) and previously moderately and intensively managed forest areas. Forests were sampled one year before and a decade after starting a landscape-wide strategy of dead-wood enrichment. Ten years after the start of the dead-wood enrichment, neither gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms nor species composition of beetles did reflect the previous management types anymore. However, fungal species composition still mirrored the previous management gradient. The results demonstrated that intentional enrichment of dead wood at the landscape scale can effectively restore communities of saproxylic organisms and may thus be a suitable strategy in addition to permanent strict reserves in order to protect wood dependent organisms in Europe. In this thesis I showed, that in contrast to what was assumed and partly reported so far, also water beetles in lentic water bodies and macro moths in forests decreased in species richness, abundance and biomass during the last three to four decades. In line with earlier studies, especially dark coloured species and specialists decreased more than light-coloured species and generalists. The reasons for these declines could partly be attributed to natural processes and pollution and possibly to climate change. However, further studies, especially experimental ones, will be needed to achieve a better understanding of the reasons for insect decline. Furthermore, analyses of time series data should be interpreted cautiously especially if the number of sampling years is smaller than ten years. In addition, validation techniques such as left- and right- censoring and cross validation should be used in order to proof the robustness of the analyses. However, the lack of knowledge, we are still facing today, should not prevent scientists and practitioners from applying conservation measures. In order to prove the effectiveness of such measures, long-term monitoring is crucial. Such control of success is essential for evidence based and thus adapted conservation strategies of threatened organisms. N2 - Veränderungen und Entwicklung sind grundlegende Prinzipien in Biozönosen und können eine Vielzahl von ökologischen Prozessen beeinflussen. In Insektengemeinschaften stellen Veränderungen in der Phänologie und Dichte, Veränderungen des Artenreichtums und der Artenzusammensetzung sowie die Wechselwirkungen zwischen diesen, die wichtigsten Makroprozesse dar. Klimawandel und andere Faktoren wie der Verlust von Lebensräumen oder deren Qualitätsverschlechterung beeinflussen diese Prozesse jedoch und führen zu Veränderungen und allgemeinen Rückgängen der Biodiversität. Auch wenn die Erkenntnisse zum „Insektensterben“ in Mitteleuropa in den letzten Jahrzehnten zugenommen haben, gibt es erhebliche Wissenslücken über die Entwicklung von Insektengemeinschaften in bestimmten Lebensräumen und Taxa. Beispielsweise ist die Entwicklung von Insektengemeinschaften in kleinen, stehenden Gewässern und in Wäldern wenig erforscht. Darüber hinaus werden die Veränderungen innerhalb von Habitaten und Taxa zusätzlich durch bestimmte Merkmale, wie Wirts- oder Nahrungsspezialisierung, beeinflusst. Um diese verschiedenen Einflüsse auseinanderhalten zu können und das Wissen über die allgemeine Langzeitentwicklung von Insektengemeinschaften zu vergrößern, sind umfassende Langzeitstudien erforderlich. Darüber hinaus sollten auch die langfristigen Auswirkungen von Naturschutzstrategien über lange Zeiträume evaluiert werden, um auf wissenschaftlicher Grundlage entscheiden zu können, welche Strategien zur Förderung bedrohter Taxa wirksam sind. Daher befasst sich diese Arbeit neben der Entwicklung von Wasserkäfer- und Großschmetterlingsgemeinschaften über mehrere Jahrzehnte auch mit den Auswirkungen einer integrativen Naturschutzmaßnahme auf xylobionte Käfer und Pilze. In Kapitel 2 stelle ich eine Studie über die Entwicklung von Wasserkäfergemeinschaften (Dytiscidae, Haliplidae, Noteridae) in 33 Gewässern Süddeutschlands von 1991 bis 2018 vor. Die zeitstandardisierte Erfassung pro Wasserkörper erfolgte in drei Zeiträumen: zwischen 1991 und 1995, 2007 und 2008 sowie 2017 und 2018. Die Ergebnisse zeigten einen jährlichen Rückgang sowohl der Artenzahl (ca. -1%) als auch der Abundanz (ca. -2%). Darüber hinaus verschob sich die Artenzusammensetzung im Laufe der Zeit zum Teil aufgrund sich ändernder pH-Werte. Daraus lässt sich schlussfolgern, dass die erfassten Veränderungen während des 28- jährigen Untersuchungszeitraums teilweise natürliche Sukzessionsprozesse widerspiegeln. Da aber auch an moorige Gewässer gebundene Käferarten deutlich abgenommen haben, ist es wahrscheinlich, dass die Wasserkäfer Süddeutschlands auch durch Faktoren wie Austrocknung, erhöhten Stickstoffeintrag und/oder Mineralisierung sowie durch den Verlust spezifischer Lebensräume bedroht sind. Aufgrund dieser Entwicklungen ist es empfehlenswert, auf Landschaftsebene auf die ständige Schaffung neuer Gewässer und den besonderen Schutz von Moorgewässern zu setzen, um Wasserkäfergemeinschaften erfolgreich schützen zu können. In Kapitel 3 präsentiere ich eine Analyse der Diversitäts-, Abundanz- und Biomassenentwicklung von nachtaktiven Großschmetterlingen über vier Jahrzehnte in Wäldern Süddeutschlands. Neben einem bayernweiten Datensatz, der alle typischen Waldtypen der gemäßigten Zone Mitteleuropas beinhaltet, wurden zwei lokale, besonders regelmäßig besammelte Gebiete getrennt analysiert. In diesen Gebieten werden die Eichenwälder als Hoch- bzw. als Mittelwald bewirtschaftet. Bayernweit wiesen Artenreichtum, Abundanz und Biomasse jährliche Rückgänge von ca. 1 %, 1,3 % bzw. 1,4 % auf. Diese Rückgänge waren bei Wirtspflanzenspezialisten und bei dunkel gefärbten Arten besonders stark ausgeprägt. Im Gegensatz dazu nahm der Artenreichtum im Mittelwald jährlich um ca. 1,5 % zu, während im Hochwald keine signifikanten Trends festgestellt werden konnten. Im Gegensatz zu früheren Annahmen betrifft der Insektenrückgang offenbar auch hyperdiverse Insektengruppen im Wald. Da Wirtspflanzenspezialisten und dunkel gefärbte Arten vom Rückgang stärker betroffen waren als andere, scheinen Lebensraumverlust und Klimawandel potentielle Treiber der beobachteten Trends zu sein. Die positive Entwicklung des Artenreichtums im Mittelwald zeigt jedoch, dass der Erhalt komplexer und vielfältiger Waldökosysteme durch aktives Management, negative Biodiversitätstrends zum Teil kompensieren könnte. Kapitel 4 enthält eine Studie, die die Langzeitwirkung von Totholzanreicherung als integrative Naturschutzmaßnahme auf xylobionte Käfer und Pilze in einem mitteleuropäischen Buchenwald auf der Landschaftsebene untersucht. Dabei wurde die Gamma-Diversität und die Artenzusammensetzung dieser beiden Gruppen anhand einer Vorher-Nachher Untersuchung mit Kontrollflächen (Naturwaldreservate) untersucht. Die bewirtschafteten Flächen wurden weiterhin in zuvor mäßig und intensiv bewirtschaftete Flächen eingeteilt. Die Wälder wurden ein Jahr vor und ein Jahrzehnt nach Beginn einer Totholzanreicherungsstrategie auf Landschaftsebene beprobt. Zehn Jahre nach Beginn der Totholzanreicherung spiegelten weder die Gamma-Diversität der xylobionten Organismen noch die Artenzusammensetzung der Käfer die früheren Bewirtschaftungstypen wider, und wiesen keine Unterschiede mehr zu den Naturwaldreservaten auf. Die Pilzartenzusammensetzung spiegelte jedoch noch immer den früheren Bewirtschaftungsgradienten wider. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Totholzanreicherung auf Landschaftsebene positive Effekte auf xylobionte Artengemeinschaften haben kann. Somit stellt Totholzanreicherung eine Naturschutzmaßnahme dar, die zusätzlich zu permanenten Schutzgebieten, eine Grundlage schaffen kann, um holzabhängige Organismen in Europa zu schützen. In dieser Arbeit habe ich gezeigt, dass im Gegensatz zu dem, was bisher angenommen und zum Teil berichtet wurde, auch Wasserkäfer in stehenden Gewässern und nachtaktive Großschmetterlingen in Wäldern in den letzten drei bis vier Jahrzehnten an Artenreichtum, Abundanz und Biomasse abgenommen haben. In Übereinstimmung mit anderen Studien nahmen vor allem dunkel gefärbte Arten und Spezialisten stärker ab als hell gefärbte Arten und Generalisten. Die Gründe für diese Rückgänge konnten zum Teil auf natürliche Prozesse, Umweltverschmutzung und möglicherweise auf den Klimawandel zurückgeführt werden. Es sind jedoch weitere Studien, insbesondere experimentelle, erforderlich, um die Gründe für das „Insektensterben“ besser zu verstehen. Darüber hinaus sollten Zeitreihendaten mit Vorsicht interpretiert werden, insbesondere wenn die Anzahl der besammelten Jahre kleiner als zehn Jahre ist. Darüber hinaus sollten Validierungstechniken wie Links- und Rechts-Zensierung und Kreuzvalidierung eingesetzt werden, um die Robustheit der Analysen nachzuweisen. Der Mangel an Wissen, mit dem wir heute noch konfrontiert sind, sollte Wissenschaftler und Praktiker jedoch nicht davon abhalten, Naturschutzmaßnahmen anzuwenden. Um die Wirksamkeit solcher Maßnahmen nachzuweisen, ist eine langfristige Überprüfung von entscheidender Bedeutung. Solche Erfolgskontrollen sind für evidenzbasierte und damit angepasste Erhaltungsstrategien bedrohter Organismen unerlässlich. KW - climate change KW - insects KW - temporal development KW - nature conservation KW - entomology Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-235499 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Roth, Nicolas A1 - Hacker, Herrmann Heinrich A1 - Heidrich, Lea A1 - Friess, Nicolas A1 - García-Barroas, Enrique A1 - Habel, Jan Christian A1 - Thorn, Simon A1 - Müler, Jörg T1 - Host specificity and species colouration mediate the regional decline of nocturnal moths in central European forests JF - Ecography N2 - The high diversity of insects has limited the volume of long-term community data with a high taxonomic resolution and considerable geographic replications, especially in forests. Therefore, trends and causes of changes are poorly understood. Here we analyse trends in species richness, abundance and biomass of nocturnal macro moths in three quantitative data sets collected over four decades in forests in southern Germany. Two local data sets, one from coppiced oak forests and one from high oak forests included 125K and 48K specimens from 559 and 532 species, respectively. A third regional data set, representing all forest types in the temperate zone of central Europe comprised 735K specimens from 848 species. Generalized additive mixed models revealed temporal declines in species richness (−38%), abundance (−53%) and biomass (−57%) at the regional scale. These were more pronounced in plant host specialists and in dark coloured species. In contrast, the local coppiced oak forests showed an increase, in species richness (+62%), while the high oak forests showed no clear trends. Left and right censoring as well as cross validation confirmed the robustness of the analyses, which led to four conclusions. First, the decline in insects appears in hyper diverse insect groups in forests and affects species richness, abundance and biomass. Second, the pronounced decline in host specialists suggests habitat loss as an important driver of the observed decline. Third, the more severe decline in dark species might be an indication of global warming as a potential driver. Fourth, the trends in coppiced oak forests indicate that maintaining complex and diverse forest ecosystems through active management may be a promising conservation strategy in order to counteract negative trends in biodiversity, alongside rewilding approaches. KW - climate change KW - colour patterns KW - global change KW - Lepidoptera KW - macro moths KW - specialists KW - time series Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-258731 VL - 44 IS - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rinawati, Fitria A1 - Stein, Katharina A1 - Lindner, André T1 - Climate change impacts on biodiversity-the setting of a lingering global crisis JF - Diversity N2 - Climate change has created potential major threats to global biodiversity. The multiple components of climate change are projected to affect all pillars of biodiversity, from genes over species to biome level. Of particular concerns are "tipping points" where the exceedance of ecosystem thresholds will possibly lead to irreversible shifts of ecosystems and their functioning. As biodiversity underlies all goods and services provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human survival and wellbeing, this paper presents potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, its plausible impacts on human society as well as the setting in addressing a global crisis. Species affected by climate change may respond in three ways: change, move or die. Local species extinctions or a rapidly affected ecosystem as a whole respectively might move toward its particular "tipping point", thereby probably depriving its services to human society and ending up in a global crisis. Urgent and appropriate actions within various scenarios of climate change impacts on biodiversity, especially in tropical regions, are needed to be considered. Foremost a multisectoral approach on biodiversity issues with broader policies, stringent strategies and programs at international, national and local levels is essential to meet the challenges of climate change impacts on biodiversity. KW - biodiversity KW - climate change KW - ecosystem function KW - ecosystem service KW - tropical forest Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-131866 VL - 5 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reiners, Philipp A1 - Sobrino, José A1 - Kuenzer, Claudia T1 - Satellite-derived land surface temperature dynamics in the context of global change — a review JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics have been increasingly used to study various geophysical processes. This review provides an extensive overview of the applications of LST in the context of global change. By filtering a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 164 articles from 14 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, research topic, applied sensor, spatio-temporal resolution and scale and employed analysis methods. It was revealed that China and the USA were the most studied countries and those that had the most first author affiliations. The most prominent research topic was the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), while the research topics related to climate change were underrepresented. MODIS was by far the most used sensor system, followed by Landsat. A relatively small number of studies analyzed LST dynamics on a global or continental scale. The extensive use of MODIS highly determined the study periods: A majority of the studies started around the year 2000 and thus had a study period shorter than 25 years. The following suggestions were made to increase the utilization of LST time series in climate research: The prolongation of the time series by, e.g., using AVHRR LST, the better representation of LST under clouds, the comparison of LST to traditional climate change measures, such as air temperature and reanalysis variables, and the extension of the validation to heterogenous sites. KW - remote sensing KW - land surface temperature KW - temperature KW - dynamics KW - global change KW - climate change KW - global warming KW - earth observation KW - review Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-311120 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 15 IS - 7 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reinermann, Sophie A1 - Gessner, Ursula A1 - Asam, Sarah A1 - Kuenzer, Claudia A1 - Dech, Stefan T1 - The Effect of Droughts on Vegetation Condition in Germany: An Analysis Based on Two Decades of Satellite Earth Observation Time Series and Crop Yield Statistics JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Central Europe experienced several droughts in the recent past, such as in the year 2018, which was characterized by extremely low rainfall rates and high temperatures, resulting in substantial agricultural yield losses. Time series of satellite earth observation data enable the characterization of past drought events over large temporal and spatial scales. Within this study, Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (MOD13Q1) 250 m time series were investigated for the vegetation periods of 2000 to 2018. The spatial and temporal development of vegetation in 2018 was compared to other dry and hot years in Europe, like the drought year 2003. Temporal and spatial inter- and intra-annual patterns of EVI anomalies were analyzed for all of Germany and for its cropland, forest, and grassland areas individually. While vegetation development in spring 2018 was above average, the summer months of 2018 showed negative anomalies in a similar magnitude as in 2003, which was particularly apparent within grassland and cropland areas in Germany. In contrast, the year 2003 showed negative anomalies during the entire growing season. The spatial pattern of vegetation status in 2018 showed high regional variation, with north-eastern Germany mainly affected in June, north-western parts in July, and western Germany in August. The temporal pattern of satellite-derived EVI deviances within the study period 2000-2018 were in good agreement with crop yield statistics for Germany. The study shows that the EVI deviation of the summer months of 2018 were among the most extreme in the study period compared to other years. The spatial pattern and temporal development of vegetation condition between the drought years differ. KW - drought KW - time series KW - heat wave KW - agriculture KW - climate extremes KW - climate change KW - crop statistics KW - MODIS KW - Germany Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-225165 VL - 11 IS - 15 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Redlich, Sarah A1 - Zhang, Jie A1 - Benjamin, Caryl A1 - Dhillon, Maninder Singh A1 - Englmeier, Jana A1 - Ewald, Jörg A1 - Fricke, Ute A1 - Ganuza, Cristina A1 - Haensel, Maria A1 - Hovestadt, Thomas A1 - Kollmann, Johannes A1 - Koellner, Thomas A1 - Kübert‐Flock, Carina A1 - Kunstmann, Harald A1 - Menzel, Annette A1 - Moning, Christoph A1 - Peters, Wibke A1 - Riebl, Rebekka A1 - Rummler, Thomas A1 - Rojas‐Botero, Sandra A1 - Tobisch, Cynthia A1 - Uhler, Johannes A1 - Uphus, Lars A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Steffan‐Dewenter, Ingolf T1 - Disentangling effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services—A multi‐scale experimental design JF - Methods in Ecology and Evolution N2 - Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients. Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration (i.e. using a Geographic information system) and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximise the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales. Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones (reference period 1981–2010) and three prevailing land-use types, that is, near-natural, agriculture and urban, resulted in 60 study regions (5.8 × 5.8 km quadrants) covering a mean annual temperature gradient of 5.6–9.8°C and a spatial extent of ~310 × 310 km. Within these regions, we nested 180 study plots located in contrasting local land-use types, that is, forests, grasslands, arable land or settlement (local climate gradient 4.5–10°C). This approach achieved low correlations between climate and land use (proportional cover) at the regional and landscape scale with |r ≤ 0.33| and |r ≤ 0.29| respectively. Furthermore, using correlation heatmaps for local plot selection reduced potentially confounding relationships between landscape composition and configuration for plots located in forests, arable land and settlements. The suggested design expands upon previous research in covering a significant range of environmental gradients and including a diversity of dominant land-use types at different scales within different climatic contexts. It allows independent assessment of the relative contribution of multi-scale climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Understanding potential interdependencies among global change drivers is essential to develop effective restoration and mitigation strategies against biodiversity decline, especially in expectation of future climatic changes. Importantly, this study also provides a baseline for long-term ecological monitoring programs. KW - study design KW - biodiversity KW - climate change KW - ecosystem functioning KW - insect monitoring KW - land use KW - space-for-time approach KW - spatial scales Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-258270 VL - 13 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Paeth, Heiko A1 - Pollinger, Felix T1 - Changes in mean flow and atmospheric wave activity in the North Atlantic sector JF - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society N2 - In recent years, the midlatitudes are characterized by more intense heatwaves in summer and sometimes severe cold spells in winter that might emanate from changes in atmospheric circulation, including synoptic‐scale and planetary wave activity in the midlatitudes. In this study, we investigate the heat and momentum exchange between the mean flow and atmospheric waves in the North Atlantic sector and adjacent continents by means of the physically consistent Eliassen–Palm flux diagnostics applied to reanalysis and forced climate model data. In the long‐term mean, momentum is transferred from the mean flow to atmospheric waves in the northwest Atlantic region, where cyclogenesis prevails. Further downstream over Europe, eddy fluxes return momentum to the mean flow, sustaining the jet stream against friction. A global climate model is able to reproduce this pattern with high accuracy. Atmospheric variability related to atmospheric wave activity is much more expressed at the intraseasonal rather than the interannual time‐scale. Over the last 40 years, reanalyses reveal a northward shift of the jet stream and a weakening of intraseasonal weather variability related to synoptic‐scale and planetary wave activity. This pertains to the winter and summer seasons, especially over central Europe, and correlates with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as regional temperature and precipitation. A very similar phenomenon is found in a climate model simulation with business‐as‐usual scenario, suggesting an anthropogenic trigger in the weakening of intraseasonal weather variability in the midlatitudes. KW - atmospheric waves KW - climate change KW - Elissen-Palm flux KW - jet stream Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-208079 VL - 145 IS - 725 ER - TY - THES A1 - Nürnberger, Fabian T1 - Timing of colony phenology and foraging activity in honey bees T1 - Zeitliche Koordination von Koloniephänologie und Sammelaktivität bei Honigbienen N2 - I. Timing is a crucial feature in organisms that live within a variable and changing environment. Complex mechanisms to measure time are wide-spread and were shown to exist in many taxa. These mechanisms are expected to provide fitness benefits by enabling organisms to anticipate environmental changes and adapt accordingly. However, very few studies have addressed the adaptive value of proper timing. The objective of this PhD-project was to investigate mechanisms and fitness consequences of timing decisions concerning colony phenology and foraging activity in the honey bee (Apis mellifera), a social insect species with a high degree of social organization and one of the most important pollinators of wild plants and crops. In chapter II, a study is presented that aimed to identify the consequences of disrupted synchrony between colony phenology and the local environment by manipulating the timing of brood onset after hibernation. In a follow-up experiment, the importance of environmental factors for the timing of brood onset was investigated to assess the potential of climate change to disrupt synchronization of colony phenology (Chapter III). Chapter IV aimed to prove for the first time that honey bees can use interval time-place learning to improve foraging activity in a variable environment. Chapter V investigates the fitness benefits of information exchange between nest mates via waggle dance communication about a resource environment that is heterogeneous in space and time. II. In the study presented in chapter II, the importance of the timing of brood onset after hibernation as critical point in honey bee colony phenology in temperate zones was investigated. Honey bee colonies were overwintered at two climatically different sites. By translocating colonies from each site to the other in late winter, timing of brood onset was manipulated and consequently colony phenology was desynchronized with the local environment. Delaying colony phenology in respect to the local environment decreased the capability of colonies to exploit the abundant spring bloom. Early brood onset, on the other hand, increased the loads of the brood parasite Varroa destructor later in the season with negative impact on colony worker population size. This indicates a timing related trade-off and illustrates the importance of investigating effects of climate change on complex multi-trophic systems. It can be concluded that timing of brood onset in honey bees is an important fitness relevant step for colony phenology that is highly sensitive to climatic conditions in late winter. Further, phenology shifts and mismatches driven by climate change can have severe fitness consequences. III. In chapter III, I assess the importance of the environmental factors ambient temperature and photoperiod as well as elapsed time on the timing of brood onset. Twenty-four hibernating honey bee colonies were placed into environmental chambers and allocated to different combinations of two temperature regimes and three different light regimes. Brood onset was identified non-invasively by tracking comb temperature within the winter cluster. The experiment revealed that ambient temperature plays a major role in the timing of brood onset, but the response of honey bee colonies to temperature increases is modified by photoperiod. Further, the data indicate the involvement of an internal clock. I conclude that the timing of brood onset is complex but probably highly susceptible to climate change and especially spells of warm weather in winter. IV. In chapter IV, it was examined if honey bees are capable of interval time-place learning and if this ability improves foraging efficiency in a dynamic resource environment. In a field experiment with artificial feeders, foragers were able to learn time intervals and use this ability to anticipate time periods during which feeders were active. Further, interval time-place learning enabled foragers to increase nectar uptake rates. It was concluded that interval time-place learning can help honey bee foragers to adapt to the complex and variable temporal patterns of floral resource environments. V. The study presented in chapter V identified the importance of the honey bee waggle dance communication for the spatiotemporal coordination of honey bee foraging activity in resource environments that can vary from day to day. Consequences of disrupting the instructional component of honey bee dance communication were investigated in eight temperate zone landscapes with different levels of spatiotemporal complexity. While nectar uptake of colonies was not affected, waggle dance communication significantly benefitted pollen harvest irrespective of landscape complexity. I suggest that this is explained by the fact that honey bees prefer to forage pollen in semi-natural habitats, which provide diverse resource species but are sparse and presumably hard to find in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. I conclude that waggle dance communication helps to ensure a sufficient and diverse pollen diet which is crucial for honey bee colony health. VI. In my PhD-project, I could show that honey bee colonies are able to adapt their activities to a seasonally and daily changing environment, which affects resource uptake, colony development, colony health and ultimately colony fitness. Ongoing global change, however, puts timing in honey bee colonies at risk. Climate change has the potential to cause mismatches with the local resource environment. Intensivation of agricultural management with decreased resource diversity and short resource peaks in spring followed by distinctive gaps increases the probability of mismatches. Even the highly efficient foraging system of honey bees might not ensure a sufficiently diverse and healthy diet in such an environment. The global introduction of the parasitic mite V. destructor and the increased exposure to pesticides in intensively managed landscapes further degrades honey bee colony health. This might lead to reduced cognitive capabilities in workers and impact the communication and social organization in colonies, thereby undermining the ability of honey bee colonies to adapt to their environment. N2 - I. Zeitliche Koordination ist äußerst wichtig für Organismen, die in einer variablen und sich wandelnden Umwelt leben. Komplexe Mechanismen, die das Messen von Zeit ermöglichen, sind weit verbreitet und wurden bei vielen Taxa aufgezeigt. Es wird generell angenommen, dass diese Mechanismen Fitnessvorteile verschaffen, indem sie es Organismen ermöglichen, Umweltveränderungen vorherzusehen und sich entsprechen anzupassen. Allerdings gibt es bisher nur sehr wenige Studien zum adaptiven Wert einer guten zeitlichen Koordination. Ziel dieses Dissertations-Projekts war es, Mechanismen der zeitlichen Koordination bei Honigbienen (Apis mellifera) zu erforschen und deren Bedeutung für die Fitness des Honigbienenvolks zu identifizieren. In Kapitel II präsentiere ich meine Studie über die Konsequenzen eines falsch gewählten Zeitpunkts für den Brutbeginn am Ende des Winters und der daraus folgenden gestörten Synchronisation zwischen der Phänologie von Honigbienenvölkern und der lokalen Umwelt. In einem Folgeexperiment wurde die Bedeutung von Umweltfaktoren für das Timing des Brutbeginns untersucht (Kapitel III). Die Studie in Kapitel IV zielt darauf ab, erstmalig den Beweis zu erbringen, dass Honigbienen das „Intervall time-place learning“, d.h. die Fähigkeit, Zeitintervalle zwischen Ereignissen zu lernen und mit deren räumlichen Lage zu assoziieren, beherrschen und, dass diese Fähigkeit beim Sammeln von Ressourcen vorteilhaft ist. Kapitel V untersucht die Fitnessvorteile, die aus dem Austausch von Informationen über ein raumzeitlich heterogenes Ressourcenumfeld zwischen Stockgenossinnen mit Hilfe des Schwänzeltanzes gezogen werden. II. In der Studie, die in Kapitel II präsentiert wird, wurde die Bedeutung des Brutbeginns als entscheidender Punkt für die Phänologie von Honigbienenvölkern in den gemäßigten Breiten untersucht. Honigbienenvölker wurden an zwei klimatisch unterschiedlichen Standorten überwintert. Indem ein Teil der Völker im Spätwinter zwischen den Standorten ausgetauscht wurde, wurde deren Brutbeginn manipuliert und dadurch die Phänologie bezüglich der lokalen Umwelt desynchronisiert. Das verzögern der Phänologie der Völker verminderte deren Fähigkeit die üppige Frühjahrsblüte zu nutzen. Ein früher Brutbeginn andererseits erhöhte die Belastung der Völker durch den Brutparasiten Varroa destructor im Verlauf der Saison, was sich negativ auf die Menge der Arbeiterinnen im Volk auswirkte. Es gibt also entscheidende gegensätzlich wirkende Faktoren, die den optimalen Zeitpunkt des Brutbeginns bestimmen. Die Studie zeigt zudem warum es wichtig ist, die möglichen Folgen des Klimawandels in einem multitrophischen System zu betrachten statt sich auf einfache Interaktionen zu beschränken. Man kann allgemein folgern, dass das Timing des Brutbeginns einen bedeutenden fitnessrelevanten Schritt in der Phänologie von Honigbienenvölkern darstellt, der stark von klimatischen Bedingungen im Spätwinter beeinflusst wird. Verschiebungen und Fehlanpassungen des Brutbeginns, und damit der Phänologie, durch den Klimawandel können ernsthafte negative Konsequenzen für die Fitness von Honigbienenvölkern haben. III. In Kapitel III beleuchte ich die Bedeutung der Umweltfaktoren Umgebungstemperatur und Photoperiode sowie der verstrichenen Zeit auf das Timing des Brutbeginns. Vierundzwanzig überwinternde Honigbienenvölker wurden in Klimakammern untergebracht und auf sechs unterschiedliche Kombinationen von Temperatur- und Lichtregimes verteilt. Der Brutbeginn wurde nicht-invasiv über den Temperaturverlauf auf der Wabe innerhalb der Wintertraube festgestellt. Das Experiment hat gezeigt, dass die Umgebungstemperatur eine entscheidende Rolle beim Timing des Brutbeginns spielt. Allerdings wurde die Reaktion der Völker auf einen Temperaturanstieg vom jeweils vorherrschenden Lichtregime beeinflusst. Zudem deuten die Daten auf die Beteiligung einer inneren Uhr hin. Ich folgere, dass das Timing des Brutbeginns durch ein komplexes System geregelt wird, das wahrscheinlich anfällig für Einflüsse durch den Klimawandel und insbesondere durch Warmwetterphasen im Winter ist. IV. In Kapitel IV meiner Dissertation wird eine Studie präsentiert, die untersucht ob Bienen die Befähigung zum „Intervall time-place learning“ besitzen und ob diese Fähigkeit die Sammeleffizienz in einem dynamischen Ressourcenumfeld verbessert. In einer Feldstudie mit künstlichen Futterquellen zeigten Sammelbienen, dass sie in der Lage waren, Zeitintervalle zu lernen und das Wissen zu nutzen, um die Zeiten vorherzusehen zu denen die Futterquellen aktiv waren. Dieses Lernverhalten ermöglichte es den Sammelbienen, ihre Nektaraufnahmerate zu steigern. Es wurde gefolgert, dass „Intervall time-place learning“ Sammelbienen dabei helfen kann, sich in einem Blühressourcenumfeld mit komplexen und variablen Zeitmustern zurechtzufinden. V. Diese Studie, die in Kapitel V präsentiert wird, untersuchte die Bedeutung der Schwänzeltanzkommunikation der Honigbienen für die raumzeitliche Koordination der Sammelaktivität des Volkes innerhalb eines Ressourcenumfelds, das täglich variieren kann. Die Folgen der Störung der instruktiven Komponenten des Schwänzeltanzes wurden in acht unterschiedlich komplex strukturierten Landschaften innerhalb der gemäßigten Breiten ermessen. Während kein Einfluss auf den Nektarsammelerfolg festgestellt werden konnte, wurde jedoch gezeigt, dass der Pollensammelerfolg, unabhängig von der raumzeitlichen Komplexität der Landschaft, stark von der Schwänzeltanzkommunikation profitiert. Der Grund dafür liegt vermutlich darin, dass Honigbienen vorzugsweise Pollen in halbnatürlichen Habitaten sammeln, die eine hohe Ressourcenvielfalt bieten, aber in intensiv agrarwirtschaftlich genutzten Landschaften eher selten und relativ schwer zu finden sind. Die Studie lässt schließen, dass die Schwänzeltanzkommunikation dabei hilft, eine ausreichende und diverse Pollenernährung zu gewährleisten und damit eine große Rolle für die Gesundheit von Honigbienenvölkern spielt. VI. Ich konnte in meinem Dissertationsprojekt zeigen, dass Honigbienen in der Lage sind ihre Aktivitäten an eine sich jahreszeitlich und täglich verändernde Umwelt anzupassen. Eine gute zeitliche Koordination hat Einfluss auf Sammelerfolg, Volksentwicklung, Gesundheit und letztlich auf die Fitness des Volkes. Allerdings gefährdet der voranschreitende globale Wandel die zeitliche Koordination der Honigbienenvölker. Der Klimawandel hat das Potenzial, zeitliche Anpassungen an die lokale Umwelt zu stören. Die Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft und der damit einhergehende Verlust von Pflanzenvielfalt sowie die kurzen Zeiträume von extrem hohem Ressourcenangebot, gefolgt von einer ausgeprägten Blühlücke, erhöht die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass zeitlich Fehlanpassungen auftreten. In einer derartigen Umwelt könnte selbst das höchst effiziente Ressourcensammelsystem der Honigbienen nicht mehr genügen, um eine ausreichende, vielfältige und gesunde Ernährung zu gewährleisten. Die globale Verbreitung der parasitischen Varroamilbe durch den Menschen und die erhöhte Belastung durch Pestizide verschlechtert zusätzlich den Gesundheitszustand der Honigbienen. Das wiederum kann sich negativ auf das Lernvermögen und des Weiteren auf die Kommunikation und soziale Organisation der Völker auswirken und dadurch deren Fähigkeit, sich an eine veränderliche Umwelt anzupassen unterwandern. KW - Biene KW - Phänologie KW - Kommunikation KW - Soziale Insekten KW - Apis mellifera KW - foraging KW - brood rearing KW - temperate zones KW - waggle dance KW - hibernation KW - climate change KW - varroa KW - Timing Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-155105 ER - TY - THES A1 - Mutz, Sebastian T1 - Dynamic Statistical Modelling of Climate-Related Mass Balance Changes in Norway T1 - Dynamisch-Statistische Modellierung Klimabedingter Gletschermassenveränderungen in Norwegen N2 - The glaciers in Norway exert a strong influence on Norwegian economy and society. Unlike many glaciers elsewhere and despite ongoing climate change and warming, many of them showed renewed advances and positive net mass changes in the 1980's and 1990's, followed by rapid retreats and mass losses since 2000. This difference in behaviour may be attributed to differences and shifts in the glaciological regime - the differences in the magnitude of impacts of climatic and non-climatic geographical factors on the glacier mass. This study investigates the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass balance changes of a selection of glaciers in Norway by means of Pearson correlation analyses and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for three time periods (1949-2008, 1949-1988, 1989-2008) separately in order to take into consideration the possible shift in the glaciological regime in the 1980's. The atmospheric variables are constructed from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analysis datasets and include regional means of seasonal air temperature and precipitation rates and atmospheric circulation indices. The multiple regression models trained in these time periods are then applied to predictors reconstructed from the CMIP3 climate model dataset to generate an estimate for mass changes from the year 1950 to 2100. The temporal overlap of estimates and observations is used for calibration. Finally, observed atmospheric states in seasons that are characterised by a particularly positive or negative mass balance are categorised into time periods of modelled climate by the application of a Bayesian classification procedure. The strongest influence on winter mass balance is exerted by different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and precipitation. The correlation coefficients and explained variances determined from the multiple regression analyses reveal an East-West gradient, suggesting a weaker influence of the NAO and NAM on glaciers underlying a more continental regime. The highest correlation coefficients and explained variances were obtained for the 1989-2008 time period, which might be due to a strong and predominantly positive phase of the NAO. Multi-model ensemble means of the estimates show a mass loss for all three eastern glaciers, while the estimates for the more maritime glaciers are ambivalent. In general, the estimates show a greater sensitivity to the training time period than to the greenhouse gas emission scenarios according to which the climates were simulated. The average net mass change by the end of 2100 is negative for all glaciers except for the northern Engabreen. For many glaciers, the Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states into time periods of modelled climate reveals a decrease in probability of atmospheric states favouring extremes in winter, and an increase in probability of atmospheric states favouring extreme mass loss in summer for the distant future (2071-2100). This pattern of probabilities for the ablation season is most pronounced for glaciers underlying a continental and intermediate regime. N2 - Gletscher in Norwegen stellen einen starken Einflussfaktor auf Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft dar. Trotz des Klimawandels und Erwärmung kam es zu einem Vorstoß der Gletscher in den späten 1980er und 1990ern, welcher erst ab dem Jahr 2000 durch einen starken Massenverlust abgelöst wurde. Dieses Verhalten lässt sich möglicherweise durch Unterschiede und Veränderungen im glaziologischen Regime erklären, d.h. Unterschiede in der Stärke der Einflüsse von klimatisch und nicht-klimatischen Faktoren auf die Gletschermassenbilanzen. Diese Arbeit untersucht den Einfluss verschiedener atmosphärischer Variablen auf die Massenveränderungen einiger Gletscher in Norwegen mit Hilfe von Korrelationsanalysen und kreuzvalidierten schrittweise multiple Regressionsanalysen. Diese werden für die Zeitabschnitte 1949-2008, 1949-1988 und 1989-2008 separat durchgeführt um den möglichen Regimewechsel in the 1980ern zu berücksichtigen. Die atmosphärischen Variablen werden aus ERA40 und NCEP/NCAR Re-analysen erstellt und beinhalten unter anderem atmosphärische Zirkulationsindizes und regionale Mittel von saisonalem Niederschlag und Temperatur. Die Regressionmodelle werden dann auf die aus den Daten des CMIP3 Klimamodelldatenarchiv rekonstruierten Prädiktoren angewandt um eine Abschätzung der Gletschermassenveränderung für den Zeitraum von 1950 bis 2100 zu erstellen. Die zeitliche Überschneidung von Abschätzungen und Beobachtungen wird zur Eichung genutzt. Zuletzt wird durch einen Bayesischen Klassifizierungsansatz beobachtete atmosphärische Zustände in Jahren, die durch besonders negative oder positive Massenbilanzen geprägt sind, in Zeitabschnitte von modelliertem Klima eingeordnet. Der größte Einfluss auf Wintermassenbilanzen stellt die Nordatlantische Oszillation, Arktische Oszillation und Niederschlagsmittel dar. Die Höhe der Korrelationskoeffizienten und der durch diese Prädiktoren erklärte Varianz der Wintermassenbilanz nimmt für die östlich gelegenen, kontinental geprägteren Gletscher ab. Die stärksten stochastischen Zusammenhänge und höchsten erklärten Varianzen werden aus dem 1989-2008 Zeitabschnitt gewonnen und lassen sich möglicherweise durch eine meist starke und positive Phase der Winter-NAO in diesem Zeitraum erklären. Multi-model Ensemble Means der Abschätzungen der Gletschermassenveränderungen zeigen den größten Massenverlust für die östlich gelegenen, kontinentaleren Gletscher auf. Die Abschätzungen für die eher maritim geprägten Gletscher sind weniger eindeutig. Im Allgemeinen reagieren die Abschätzungen empfindlicher auf die Wahl des Trainingszeitraums für die Regressionsmodelle als auf die Emissionsszenarien der Klimamodellläufe. Im Durchschnitt ist die kumulative Massenbilanz im Jahr 2100 jedoch für fast alle Gletscher negativ. Der nördlich gelegene Engabreen stellt die einzige Ausnahme dar. Die Resultate des Bayesischen Klassifikationsansatzes zeigen eine Abnahme in der Wahrscheinlichkeit für atmospphärischen Zustände, die Minima und Maxima winterlicher Akkumulation begünstigen. Des Weiteren zeigen die Resultate eine Zunahme in der Wahrscheinlichkeit der atmosphärischen Zustände, die starken Massenverlust im Sommer begünstigen. Dies ist besonders bei den Gletschern der Fall, die einem kontinentalen oder Übergangsregime unterliegen. KW - Norwegen KW - Klimatologie KW - Klimaänderung KW - Gletscherschwankung KW - Geschichte 1949-2008 KW - dynamic-statistical KW - statistica modelling KW - glaciers KW - climate change KW - norway KW - statistics KW - bayesian Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-114799 ER - TY - THES A1 - Mayr, Antonia Veronika T1 - Following Bees and Wasps up Mt. Kilimanjaro: From Diversity and Traits to hidden Interactions of Species T1 - Auf den Spuren von Bienen und Wespen auf den Kilimandscharo: Eine Studie über die Diversität, Merkmale und verborgenen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Arten N2 - Chapter 1 – General Introduction One of the greatest challenges of ecological research is to predict the response of ecosystems to global change; that is to changes in climate and land use. A complex question in this context is how changing environmental conditions affect ecosystem processes at different levels of communities. To shed light on this issue, I investigate drivers of biodiversity on the level of species richness, functional traits and species interactions in cavity-nesting Hymenoptera. For this purpose, I take advantage of the steep elevational gradient of Mt. Kilimanjaro that shows strong environmental changes on a relatively small spatial scale and thus, provides a good environmental scenario for investigating drivers of diversity. In this thesis, I focus on 1) drivers of species richness at different trophic levels (Chapter 2); 2) seasonal patterns in nest-building activity, life-history traits and ecological rates in three different functional groups and at different elevations (Chapter 3) and 3) changes in cuticular hydrocarbons, pollen composition and microbiomes in Lasioglossum bees caused by climatic variables (Chapter 4). Chapter 2 – Climate and food resources shape species richness and trophic interactions of cavity-nesting Hymenoptera Drivers of species richness have been subject to research for centuries. Temperature, resource availability and top-down regulation as well as the impact of land use are considered to be important factors in determining insect diversity. Yet, the relative importance of each of these factors is unknown. Using trap nests along the elevational gradient of Mt. Kilimanjaro, we tried to disentangle drivers of species richness at different trophic levels. Temperature was the major driver of species richness across trophic levels, with increasing importance of food resources at higher trophic levels in natural antagonists. Parasitism rate was both related to temperature and trophic level, indicating that the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forces might shift with climate change. Chapter 3 – Seasonal variation in the ecology of tropical cavity-nesting Hymenoptera Natural populations fluctuate with the availability of resources, presence of natural enemies and climatic variations. But tropical mountain seasonality is not yet well investigated. We investigated seasonal patterns in nest-building activity, functional traits and ecological rates in three different insect groups at lower and higher elevations separately. Insects were caught with trap nests which were checked monthly during a 17 months period that included three dry and three rainy seasons. Insects were grouped according to their functional guilds. All groups showed strong seasonality in nest-building activity which was higher and more synchronised among groups at lower elevations. Seasonality in nest building activity of caterpillar-hunting and spider-hunting wasps was linked to climate seasonality while in bees it was strongly linked to the availability of flowers, as well as for the survival rate and sex ratio of bees. Finding adaptations to environmental seasonality might imply that further changes in climatic seasonality by climate change could have an influence on life-history traits of tropical mountain species. Chapter 4 – Cryptic species and hidden ecological interactions of halictine bees along an elevational Gradient Strong environmental gradients such as those occurring along mountain slopes are challenging for species. In this context, hidden adaptations or interactions have rarely been considered. We used bees of the genus Lasioglossum as model organisms because Lasioglossum is the only bee genus occurring with a distribution across the entire elevational gradient at Mt. Kilimanjaro. We asked if and how (a) cuticular hydrocarbons (CHC), which act as a desiccation barrier, change in composition and chain length along with changes in temperature and humidity (b), Lasioglossum bees change their pollen diet with changing resource availability, (c) gut microbiota change with pollen diet and climatic conditions, and surface microbiota change with CHC and climatic conditions, respectively, and if changes are rather influenced by turnover in Lasioglossum species along the elevational gradient. We found physiological adaptations with climate in CHC as well as changes in communities with regard to pollen diet and microbiota, which also correlated with each other. These results suggest that complex interactions and feedbacks among abiotic and biotic conditions determine the species composition in a community. Chapter 5 – General Discussion Abiotic and biotic factors drove species diversity, traits and interactions and they worked differently depending on the functional group that has been studied, and whether spatial or temporal units were considered. It is therefore likely, that in the light of global change, different species, traits and interactions will be affected differently. Furthermore, increasing land use intensity could have additional or interacting effects with climate change on biodiversity, even though the potential land-use effects at Mt. Kilimanjaro are still low and not impairing cavity-nesting Hymenoptera so far. Further studies should address species networks which might reveal more sensitive changes. For that purpose, trap nests provide a good model system to investigate effects of global change on multiple trophic levels and may also reveal direct effects of climate change on entire life-history traits when established under different microclimatic conditions. The non-uniform effects of abiotic and biotic conditions on multiple aspects of biodiversity revealed with this study also highlight that evaluating different aspects of biodiversity can give a more comprehensive picture than single observations. N2 - Kapitel 1 – Allgemeine Einführung Eine der größten Herausforderungen der ökologischen Forschung ist es, die Reaktion der Ökosysteme auf den globalen Wandel, d.h. auf Veränderungen von Klima und Landnutzung, vorherzusagen. Eine komplexe Frage in diesem Zusammenhang ist, wie sich verändernde Umweltbedingungen auf die Ökosystemprozesse auf verschiedenen Ebenen von Gemeinschaften auswirken. Um dieses Thema näher zu beleuchten, untersuche ich die Triebkräfte der Biodiversität auf der Ebene des Artenreichtums, der funktionellen Eigenschaften und der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Arten bei Hautflüglern, die in Hohlräumen nisten. Zu diesem Zweck nutze ich den steilen Höhengradienten des Kilimandscharo, der starke Umweltveränderungen auf relativ kleinem Raum mit sich bringt und somit ein gutes System für die Untersuchung von Triebkräften der biologischen Vielfalt bietet. In dieser Arbeit konzentriere ich mich auf 1) Triebkräfte des Artenreichtums auf verschiedenen trophischen Ebenen (Kapitel 2); 2) saisonale Muster in der Nestbauaktivität, lebensgeschichtliche Merkmale und ökologische Raten in drei verschiedenen funktionellen Gruppen und in verschiedenen Höhenlagen (Kapitel 3) und 3) Veränderungen in kutikulären Kohlenwasserstoffen, Pollenzusammensetzung und Mikrobiomen bei Lasioglossum Bienen, die durch klimatische Faktoren verursacht werden (Kapitel 4). Kapitel 2 – Klima und Nahrungsressourcen prägen den Artenreichtum und die trophischen Wechselwirkungen von hohlraumnistenden Hautflüglern Die Triebkräfte des Artenreichtums werden seit Jahrhunderten erforscht. Temperatur, Ressourcenverfügbarkeit und Top-Down-Regulierung sowie die Auswirkungen der Landnutzung werden als wichtige Faktoren für die Bestimmung der Insektenvielfalt angesehen. Die relative Bedeutung jedes dieser Faktoren ist jedoch unbekannt. Mit Hilfe von Nisthilfen entlang des Höhengradienten des Kilimandscharo versuchten wir, die Triebkräfte des Artenreichtums auf verschiedenen trophischen Ebenen zu enträtseln. Die Temperatur war der Hauptfaktor für den Artenreichtum auf allen trophischen Ebenen, wobei die Bedeutung der Nahrungsressourcen auf den höheren trophischen Ebenen der natürlichen Antagonisten zunahm. Die Parasitierungsrate wurde sowohl durch die Temperatur als auch durch die trophische Ebene bestimmt, was darauf hindeutet, dass sich die relative Bedeutung der Bottom-up- und Top-down-Kräfte mit dem Klimawandel verschieben könnte. Kapitel 3 – Saisonale Schwankungen in der Ökologie von tropischen hohlraumnistenden Hautflüglern Natürliche Populationen schwanken mit der Verfügbarkeit von Ressourcen, dem Vorhandensein natürlicher Feinde und klimatischen Schwankungen. Die Saisonalität ist jedoch auf tropischen Bergen noch nicht gut untersucht. Wir untersuchten saisonale Muster in der Nestbauaktivität, funktionale Merkmale und ökologische Raten bei drei verschiedenen Insektengruppen in niedrigeren und höheren Höhenlagen. Insekten wurden mit Nisthilfen gefangen, die während eines Zeitraums von 17 Monaten, der drei Trocken- und drei Regenzeiten umfasste, monatlich überprüft wurden. Die Insekten wurden nach ihren funktionalen Gilden eingeteilt. Alle Gruppen zeigten eine starke Saisonalität im Nestbau, die in niedrigeren Lagen höher war und dort zwischen den Gruppen stärker synchronisiert war. Die Saisonalität im Nestbau von Raupen- und Spinnen- jagenden Wespen war mit saisonalen Klimaschwankungen verbunden, während sie bei Bienen stark von der Verfügbarkeit von Blüten abhing, genauso wie die Überlebensrate und das Geschlechterverhältnis der Bienen von der Blütenmenge abhing. Die Anpassung an die Saisonalität der Umwelt könnte bedeuten, dass weitere Veränderungen der saisonalen Klimaschwankungen durch den Klimawandel einen Einfluss auf die lebensgeschichtlichen Merkmale tropischer Bergarten haben könnten. Kapitel 4 – Kryptische Arten und versteckte ökologische Wechselwirkungen bei Schmalbienen entlang eines Höhengradienten Starke Umweltgradienten, wie sie an Berghängen auftreten, stellen für Arten eine Herausforderung dar. Versteckte Anpassungen oder Interaktionen wurden in diesem Zusammenhang selten berücksichtigt. Als Modellorganismen haben wir Bienen der Gattung Lasioglossum verwendet, da Lasioglossum die einzige Bienengattung ist, die über den gesamten Höhengradienten am Kilimandscharo weit verbreitet ist. Wir fragten, ob und wie (a) kutikuläre Kohlenwasserstoffe (CHC), die als Barriere gegen Austrocknung wirken, sich in ihrer Zusammensetzung und Kettenlänge entlang von Temperatur- und Feuchtigkeitsänderungen verändern; (b) Lasioglossum Bienen ihre Pollennahrung mit wechselnder Ressourcenverfügbarkeit ändern; (c) Änderungen von Darm-Mikrobiota mit Pollennahrung und Klimabedingungen und Änderungen von Oberflächen-Mikrobiota mit CHC und Klimabedingungen zusammen hängen, und ob die Veränderungen eher durch den Wechsel von Lasioglossum Arten entlang des Höhengradienten beeinflusst werden. Wir fanden physiologische Anpassungen an das Klima in CHC, sowie Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung von Pollennahrung und Mikrobiota, die auch miteinander korrelierten. Diese Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass komplexe Wechselwirkungen und Rückkopplungen zwischen abiotischen und biotischen Bedingungen die Artenzusammensetzung in einer Gemeinschaft bestimmen. Kapitel 5 – Allgemeine Diskussion Abiotische und biotische Faktoren förderten die Artenvielfalt, Eigenschaften und Wechselwirkungen von Arten und sie wirkten unterschiedlich, je nachdem, welche funktionelle Gruppe untersucht wurde und ob räumliche oder zeitliche Einheiten berücksichtigt worden sind. Es ist daher wahrscheinlich, dass im Lichte des globalen Wandels verschiedene Arten, Merkmale und Wechselwirkungen unterschiedlich betroffen sein werden. Darüber hinaus könnte eine zunehmende Landnutzungsintensität zusätzliche Auswirkungen oder Wechselwirkungen mit dem Klimawandel auf die Biodiversität haben, auch wenn die potenziellen Landnutzungseffekte am Kilimandscharo noch gering sind und bis jetzt die hohlraumnistenden Hautflüglern nicht beeinträchtigen. Weitere Studien sollten sich mit Nahrungsnetzwerken befassen, die empfindlichere Veränderungen aufzeigen könnten. Nisthilfen bieten dafür ein gutes Modellsystem, um die Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels auf mehreren trophischen Ebenen zu untersuchen, und können auch direkte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf ganze lebensgeschichtliche Merkmale aufzeigen, wenn sie unter verschiedenen mikroklimatischen Bedingungen etabliert werden. Die nicht einheitlichen Auswirkungen abiotischer und biotischer Bedingungen auf mehrere Aspekte der Biodiversität, die in dieser Studie gezeigt wurden, zeigen auch, dass die Untersuchung verschiedener Aspekte der Biodiversität ein umfassenderes Bild vermitteln kann als Einzelbetrachtungen. KW - land use KW - Landnutzung KW - climate change KW - bees KW - wasps KW - biodiversity KW - Klimawandel KW - Bienen KW - Wespen KW - Biodiversität Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-182922 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Maihoff, Fabienne A1 - Friess, Nicolas A1 - Hoiss, Bernhard A1 - Schmid‐Egger, Christian A1 - Kerner, Janika A1 - Neumayer, Johann A1 - Hopfenmüller, Sebastian A1 - Bässler, Claus A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Classen, Alice T1 - Smaller, more diverse and on the way to the top: Rapid community shifts of montane wild bees within an extraordinary hot decade JF - Diversity and Distributions N2 - Aim Global warming is assumed to restructure mountain insect communities in space and time. Theory and observations along climate gradients predict that insect abundance and richness, especially of small‐bodied species, will increase with increasing temperature. However, the specific responses of single species to rising temperatures, such as spatial range shifts, also alter communities, calling for intensive monitoring of real‐world communities over time. Location German Alps and pre‐alpine forests in south‐east Germany. Methods We empirically examined the temporal and spatial change in wild bee communities and its drivers along two largely well‐protected elevational gradients (alpine grassland vs. pre‐alpine forest), each sampled twice within the last decade. Results We detected clear abundance‐based upward shifts in bee communities, particularly in cold‐adapted bumble bee species, demonstrating the speed with which mobile organisms can respond to climatic changes. Mean annual temperature was identified as the main driver of species richness in both regions. Accordingly, and in large overlap with expectations under climate warming, we detected an increase in bee richness and abundance, and an increase in small‐bodied species in low‐ and mid‐elevations along the grassland gradient. Community responses in the pre‐alpine forest gradient were only partly consistent with community responses in alpine grasslands. Main Conclusion In well‐protected temperate mountain regions, small‐bodied bees may initially profit from warming temperatures, by getting more abundant and diverse. Less severe warming, and differences in habitat openness along the forested gradient, however, might moderate species responses. Our study further highlights the utility of standardized abundance data for revealing rapid changes in bee communities over only one decade. KW - Alps KW - altitudinal gradient KW - body size KW - climate change KW - global warming KW - hymenoptera KW - pollinator KW - range shifts Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-312126 VL - 29 IS - 2 ER - TY - THES A1 - Machwitz, Miriam T1 - Eine raum-zeitliche Modellierung der Kohlenstoffbilanz mit Fernerkundungsdaten auf regionaler Ebene in Westafrika T1 - Spatio-temporal modelling of the cabon budget in West Africa with remote sensing data on a regional scale N2 - Der Klimawandel und insbesondere die globale Erwärmung gehören aktuell zu den größten Herausforderungen an Politik und Wissenschaft. Steigende CO2-Emissionen sind hierbei maßgeblich für die Klimaerwärmung verantwortlich. Ein regulierender Faktor beim CO2-Austausch mit der Atmosphäre ist die Vegetation, welche als CO2-Senke aber auch als CO2-Quelle fungieren kann. Diese Funktionen können durch Analysen der Landbedeckungsänderung in Kombination mit Modellierungen der Kohlenstoffbilanz quantifiziert werden, was insbesondere von aktuellen und zukünftigen politischen Instrumenten wie CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) oder REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) gefordert wird. Vor allem in Regionen mit starker Landbedeckungsänderung und hoher Bevölkerungsdichte sowie bei geringem Wissen über die Produktivität und CO2-Speicherpotentiale der Vegetation, bedarf es einer Erforschung und Quantifizierung der terrestrischen Kohlenstoffspeicher. Eine Region, für die dies in besonderem Maße zutrifft, ist Westafrika. Jüngste Studien haben gezeigt, dass sich einerseits die Folgen des Klimawandels und Umweltveränderungen sehr stark in Westafrika auswirken werden und andererseits Bevölkerungswachstum eine starke Änderung der Landbedeckung für die Nutzung als agrarische Fläche bewirkt hat. Folglich sind in dieser Region die terrestrischen Kohlenstoffspeicher durch Ausdehnung der Landwirtschaft und Waldrodung besonders gefährdet. Große Flächen agieren anstelle ihrer ursprünglichen Funktion als CO2-Senke bereits als CO2-Quelle. [...] N2 - Global warming associated with climate change is one of the greatest challenges of today's world. One regulating factor of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere is the vegetation cover. Measurements of land cover changes in combination with modeling of the carbon balance can therefore contribute to determining temporal variations of CO2 sources and sinks, which is an essential necessity of existing and prospective political instruments like CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) or REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). The need for quantifiable terrestrial carbon stocks is especially high for regions, where rates of land cover transformation and population density are high and knowledge on vegetation productivity is low. One region which is characterized by these criteria is West Africa. Therefore, carbon stocks in this region are seriously endangered by land cover change like the expansion of agriculture and forest logging. Large areas already act as carbon sources on a yearly basis instead of their previous function as carbon sink. Since only a few studies have analyzed the terrestrial carbon stocks in Africa and especially regional analysis in West Africa are missing, the following study focuses on regional scale modeling of the actual terrestrial carbon stocks. Additionally, the potential carbon stocks of unmanaged land cover and the potential for CO2 payments have been analyzed in this work. To quantify and assess carbon fluxes as well as the loss of carbon, net primary productivity of vegetation has been modeled, based on the plants characteristics to fix carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis. Modeling vegetation dynamics and net primary productivity has been realized by using MODIS 250m time series for semi-humid and semi-arid savanna ecosystems in West Africa. This study aimed to quantify CO2 exchanges of the Savanna regions in the Volta basin by applying and adapting the Regional Biomass Model (RBM). The RBM was developed by Jochen Richters (2005) at a resolution of 1000m for the Namibian Kaokoveld. In this study the model was optimized to the scale of 232m to consider the heterogeneous landscape in West Africa (RBM+). New input parameters with higher accuracies and resolution were generated instead of using the global standard products. The most important parameters for the modeling are FPAR and the fractional cover of herbaceous and woody vegetation. To enhance the MODIS FPAR product, linear interpolation and downscaling algorithms were applied. The main objective of the downscaling is a better representation of the finely scattered vegetation by the 232m resolution FPAR. The second optimized parameter, the fractional cover of herbaceous and woody vegetation was represented by the Vegetation Continuous Fields product (VCF) from MODIS in the originally version of the RBM. This global product reflects the vegetation structure of West Africa poorly, since few high resolution training data is available for this region, and the dynamic savanna vegetation can hardly be classified by not regionally adapted methods. Additionally, the data is only available with 500m resolution. Therefore, in this study a new product with 232m resolution was developed which represents the spatial heterogeneity well and, due to the regional adaptation, shows higher accuracies. The percentage cover of woody and herbaceous vegetation and bare soil on 232m MODIS data was calculated in a multi scale approach. Based on very high resolution data, represented by Quickbird and Ikonos with 0.6-4m resolution, and high resolution data from Landsat with 30m resolution, the percentage coverage was estimated for representative focus regions. These classifications were used as a training data set to determine the percentage coverage on the 232m scale with MODIS time series for the whole study region. Based on these optimized and adapted input parameters, the net primary productivity was modeled. Data from a meteorological station and an Eddy-Covariance-Flux allowed a detailed validation of the input parameters and of the model results. The model led to good results as it only overestimated the net primary productivity for the two analyzed years 2005 and 2006 by 8.8 and 2.0 %, respectively. The second aim of the study was an analysis of the potential for long term terrestrial carbon sinks. Classifications of the actual and of the potential land cover were calculated for this analysis. Considering the overall long time CO2 fixation behavior of trees, which depends on their age, longterm carbon stocks for 100 years were simulated. As carbon fixing could be paid by emission trading, which is in future depending on the political Post-Kyoto programs, potential alternative income was calculated with different price scenarios for the three countries. A comparison with the gross domestic products of these countries and with developing aid, showed the significance of CO2 trading in this region. KW - Carbon dioxide capture and storage KW - Fernerkundung KW - Klimaänderung KW - Volta-Gebiet KW - Kohlenstoffmodellierung KW - Fernerkundung KW - Klimawandel KW - Nettoprimärproduktion KW - Carbon modelling KW - remote sensing KW - climate change KW - net primary productivity Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-55136 ER - TY - THES A1 - Leingärtner, Annette T1 - Combined effects of climate change and extreme events on plants, arthropods and their interactions T1 - Kombinierte Effekte von Klimawandel und Extremereignissen auf Pflanzen, Arthropoden und ihre Interaktionen N2 - I. Global climate change directly and indirectly influences biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems. Changes in abiotic ecosystem components caused by climate change comprise temperature increases, precipitation changes and more frequently occurring extreme events. Mediated by these abiotic changes, biotic ecosystem components including all living organisms will also change. Expected changes of plants and animals are advanced phenologies and range shifts towards higher latitudes and altitudes which presumably induce changes in species interactions and composition. Altitudinal gradients provide an optimal opportunity for climate change studies, because they serve as natural experiments due to fast changing climatic conditions within short distances. In this dissertation two different approaches were conducted to reveal species and community responses to climate change. First, species richness and community trait analyses along an altitudinal gradient in the Bavarian Alps (chapters II, III) and second, climate change manipulation experiments under different climatic contexts (chapters IV, V, IV). II. We performed biodiversity surveys of butterfly and diurnal moth species on 34 grassland sites along an altitudinal gradient in the National Park Berchtesgaden. Additionally, we analysed the dominance structure of life-history traits in butterfly assemblages along altitude. Species richness of butterflies and diurnal moths decreased with increasing altitude. The dominance of certain life-history-traits changed along the altitudinal gradient with a higher proportion of larger-winged species and species with higher egg numbers towards higher altitudes. However, the mean egg maturation time, population density and geographic distribution within butterfly assemblages decreased with increasing altitude. Our results indicate that butterfly assemblages were mainly shaped by environmental filtering. We conclude that butterfly assemblages at higher altitudes will presumably lack adaptive capacity to future climatic conditions, because of specific trait combinations. III. In addition to butterfly and diurnal moth species richness we also studied plant species richness in combination with pollination type analyses along the altitudinal gradient. The management type of the alpine grasslands was also integrated in the analyses to detect combined effects of climate and management on plant diversity and pollination type. Plant species richness was highest at intermediate altitudes, whereby the management type influenced the plant diversity with more plant species at grazed compared to mown or non-managed grasslands. The pollination type was affected by both the changing climate along the gradient and the management type. These results suggest that extensive grazing can maintain high plant diversity along the whole altitudinal gradient. With ongoing climate change the diversity peak of plants may shift upwards, which can cause a decrease in biodiversity due to reduced grassland area but also changes in species composition and adaptive potential of pollination types. IV. We set up manipulation experiments on 15 grassland sites along the altitudinal gradient in order to determine the combined effects of extreme climatic events (extreme drought, advanced and delayed snowmelt) and elevation on the nutritional quality and herbivory rates of alpine plants. The leaf CN (carbon to nitrogen) ratio and the plant damage through herbivores were not significantly affected by the simulated extreme events. However, elevation influenced the CN ratios and herbivory rates of alpine plants with contrasting responses between plant guilds. Furthermore, we found differences in nitrogen concentrations and herbivory rates between grasses, legumes and forbs, whereas legumes had the highest nitrogen concentrations and were damaged most. Additionally, CN ratios and herbivory rates increased during the growing season, indicating a decrease of food plant quality during the growing season. Contrasting altitudinal responses of grasses, legumes and forbs presumably can change the dominance structure among these plant guilds with ongoing climate change. V. In this study we analysed the phenological responses of grassland species to an extreme drought event, advanced and delayed snowmelt along the altitudinal gradient. Advanced snowmelt caused an advanced beginning of flowering, whereas this effect was more pronounced at higher than at lower altitudes. Extreme drought and delayed snowmelt had rather low effects on the flower phenology and the responses did not differ between higher and lower sites. The strongest effect influencing flower phenology was altitude, with a declining effect through the season. The length of flowering duration was not significantly influenced by treatments. Our data suggest that plant species at higher altitudes may be more affected by changes in snowmelt timing in contrast to lowland species, as at higher altitudes more severe changes are expected. However, the risk of extreme drought events on flowering phenology seems to be low. VI. We established soil-emergence traps on the advanced snowmelt and control treatment plots in order to detect possible changes in abundances and emergence phenologies of five arthropod orders due to elevation and treatment. Additionally, we analysed the responses of Coleoptera species richness to elevation and treatment. We found that the abundance and species richness of Coleoptera increased with elevation as well as the abundance of Diptera. However, the abundance of Hemiptera decreased with elevation and the abundances of Araneae and Hymenoptera showed no elevational patterns. The advanced snowmelt treatment increased the abundances of Araneae and Hymenoptera. The emergence of soil-hibernating arthropods was delayed up to seven weeks at higher elevations, whereas advanced snowmelt did not influence the emergence phenology of arthropods immediately after snowmelt. With climate change earlier snowmelt will occur more often, which especially will affect soil-hibernating arthropods in alpine regions and may cause desynchronisations between species interactions. VII. In conclusion, we showed that alpine ecosystems are sensitive towards changing climate conditions and extreme events and that many alpine species in the Bavarian Alps are endangered. Many alpine species could exist under warmer climatic conditions, however they are expected to be outcompeted by more competitive lowland species. Furthermore, host-parasite or predator-prey interactions can be disrupted due to different responses of certain guilds to climate change. Understanding and predicting the complex dynamics and potential risks of future climate change remains a great challenge and therefore further studies analysing species and community responses to climate change are needed. N2 - I. Der globale Klimawandel beeinflusst direkt und indirekt biotische und abiotische Komponenten der Ökosysteme. Durch Klimawandel verursachte Veränderungen in den abiotischen Komponenten der Ökosysteme umfassen Temperaturanstiege, Veränderungen im Niederschlag und häufiger auftretende Extremereignisse. Als Folge dieser abiotischen Veränderungen, werden sich auch die biotischen Komponenten der Ökosysteme, die alle lebenden Organismen einschließen, verändern. Voraussichtliche Veränderungen bei Pflanzen und Tieren sind vorverlegte Phänologien und Verbreitungsverschiebungen in Richtung höherer Breitengrade und Höhenlagen, was möglicherweise Veränderungen von Interaktionen zwischen Arten und in der Artzusammensetzung verursacht. Höhengradienten bieten durch sich schnell verändernde klimatische Bedingungen innerhalb kurzer Distanzen eine optimale Möglichkeit für Klimawandelstudien im Freiland. In dieser Dissertation wurden zwei unterschiedliche Versuchsansätze genutzt, um die Reaktionen von Arten und Artengemeinschaften auf den Klimawandel zu untersuchen: erstens Analysen zum Artenreichtum und zu Merkmalen innerhalb von Artengemeinschaften entlang eines Höhengradienten in den Bayerischen Alpen (Kapitel II, III) und zweitens Manipulationsexperimente zur Simulation von Klimawandel bei unterschiedlichen klimatischen Bedingungen (Kapitel IV, V, VI). II. Wir haben Biodiversitätsaufnahmen von Schmetterlings- und tagaktiven Nachtfalterarten entlang eines Höhengradienten im Nationalpark Berchtesgaden durchgeführt. Zusätzlich haben wir die Dominanzstruktur von Life-History-Merkmalen in Schmetterlingsgesellschaften entlang des Höhengradienten analysiert. Der Artenreichtum von Schmetterlingen und tagaktiven Nachtfaltern nahm mit zunehmender Höhe ab. Die Dominanz von bestimmten Life-History-Merkmalen veränderte sich entlang des Höhengradienten. Zum Beispiel fanden wir einen höheren Anteil an Arten mit größeren Flügeln und eine größere Anzahl an Eiern in höheren Lagen. Die mittlere Eireifezeit, Populationsdichte und geographische Verbreitung von Schmetterlingsgesellschaften nahm mit steigender Höhe ab. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Schmetterlingsgesellschaften hauptsächlich durch den Filtereffekt der Umwelt geformt werden. Wir schlussfolgern, dass sich bestimmte Merkmalskombinationen von Schmetterlingsgesellschaften in höheren Lagen möglicherweise ungünstig auf die Anpassungskapazität an zukünftige klimatische Veränderungen auswirken. III. Zusätzlich zum Artenreichtum von Schmetterlingen und tagaktiven Nachtfaltern haben wir auch den Artenreichtum von Pflanzen in Kombination mit Analysen zu Bestäubungstypen entlang des Höhengradienten untersucht. Die Bewirtschaftungsform der alpinen Grasländer wurde in die Analysen integriert, um kombinierte Auswirkungen von Klima und Bewirtschaftungsform auf die Pflanzendiversität und den Bestäubungstyp zu erfassen. Der Artenreichtum von Pflanzen war auf mittleren Höhen am größten, wobei die Bewirtschaftungsform die Pflanzendiversität beeinflusste. Es kamen mehr Pflanzenarten auf beweideten im Vergleich zu gemähten oder nicht bewirtschafteten Wiesen vor. Der Bestäubungstyp wurde sowohl durch das sich verändernde Klima entlang des Gradienten als auch durch die Bewirtschaftungsform beeinflusst. Unsere Ergebnisse lassen vermuten, dass extensive Beweidung eine hohe Pflanzendiversität entlang des gesamten Höhengradienten erhalten kann. Mit fortschreitendem Klimawandel könnte sich der Bereich mit höchster Pflanzendiversität nach oben verschieben, was zu einem Biodiversitätsverlust durch eine Abnahme an Grasflächen führen könnte, aber auch zu Veränderungen in der Artenzusammensetzung und dem Anpassungspotential von Bestäubungstypen. IV. Wir simulierten Extremereignisse (extreme Dürre, frühere und spätere Schneeschmelze) auf 15 Grasflächen entlang des Höhengradienten, um kombinierte Effekte von extremen klimatischen Ereignissen und Höhenlage auf die Futterqualität und den Blattfraß von alpinen Pflanzen zu untersuchen. Das Verhältnis von Kohlenstoff zu Stickstoff (CN) in Blättern und die Fraßschäden durch Pflanzenfresser wurden durch die simulierten Extremereignisse nicht signifikant beeinflusst. Dagegen beeinflusste die Höhenlage das CN-Verhältnis und die Herbivorieraten von alpinen Pflanzen mit entgegengesetzten Reaktionen unter den Pflanzengruppen. Des Weiteren haben wir Unterschiede in den Stickstoffkonzentrationen und Herbivorieraten zwischen Gräsern, Leguminosen und krautigen Pflanzen gefunden, wobei die Leguminosen die höchsten Stickstoffkonzentrationen aufwiesen und am stärksten angefressen waren. Zusätzlich stiegen die CN-Verhältnisse und die Fraßschäden während der Vegetationsperiode an, was auf eine Abnahme der Futterqualität im Verlauf der Vegetationsperiode hindeutet. Entgegengesetzte Muster von Gräsern, Leguminosen und krautigen Pflanzen über die Höhe können möglicherweise die Dominanzstruktur zwischen diesen Pflanzengruppen mit fortschreitendem Klimawandel verändern. V. In dieser Studie haben wir die phänologischen Reaktionen von Graslandarten auf ein extremes Dürreereignis, eine frühere und eine spätere Schneeschmelze entlang des Höhengradienten, analysiert. Die frühere Schneeschmelze bewirkte einen früheren Blühbeginn, wobei dieser Effekt auf höheren Lagen ausgeprägter war als auf tieferen Lagen. Extreme Dürre und spätere Schneeschmelze hatten eher geringe Auswirkungen auf die Blühphänologie und die Auswirkungen unterschieden sich nicht zwischen höher und tiefer gelegenen Flächen. Am stärksten würde die Blühphänologie von der Höhenlage beeinflusst wobei sich der Effekt im Verlauf der Vegetationsperiode verringerte. Die Länge der Blühdauer wurde durch die Simulationen nicht signifikant beeinflusst. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Pflanzenarten in höheren Lagen stärker durch Veränderungen des Zeitpunktes der Schneeschmelze beeinflusst werden als Tieflandarten, weil in höheren Lagen stärkere Veränderungen erwartet werden. Das Risiko von extremer Dürre für die Blühphänologie scheint aber gering zu sein. VI. Wir untersuchten Effekte der Höhenlage und früherer Schneeschmelze auf Häufigkeiten und Schlupfphänologien fünf verschiedener Arthropodenordnungen. Dazu installierten wir Bodenphotoeklektoren auf Flächen mit früherer Schneeschmelze und Kontrollflächen. Außerdem analysierten wir die Auswirkungen der Höhenlage und der früheren Schneeschmelze auf den Artenreichtum von Coleoptera. Wir stellten fest, dass die Abundanz und der Artenreichtum von Coleoptera sowie die Abundanz der Diptera mit steigender Höhenlage zunahmen, während die Abundanz der Hemiptera mit steigender Höhe abnahm. Araneae und Hymenoptera zeigten keine Abundanzmuster entlang des Höhengradienten. Eine simulierte frühere Schneeschmelze ließ die Abundanz der Araneae und Hymenoptera ansteigen. Arthropoden, die im Boden überwinterten, schlüpften in höheren Lagen bis zu sieben Wochen später. Eine frühere Schneeschmelze beeinflusste die Schlupfphänologie der Arthropoden unmittelbar nach der Schneeschmelze jedoch nicht. Aufgrund des Klimawandels wird eine frühere Schneeschmelze häufiger auftreten, was vor allem Auswirkungen auf bodenüberwinternde Arthropoden in der Alpenregion haben kann und zu Desynchronisationen mit interagierenden Arten führen kann. VII. Abschließend lässt sich sagen, dass alpine Ökosysteme sensibel auf klimatische Veränderungen und Extremereignisse reagieren und dass viele alpine Arten in den Bayerischen Alpen gefährdet sind. Viele alpine Arten könnten unter wärmeren klimatischen Bedingungen existieren, aber vermutlich werden sie von konkurrenzstärkeren Tieflandarten verdrängt. Des Weiteren können Wirt-Parasit oder Räuber-Beute Interaktionen durch unterschiedliche Reaktionen von bestimmten Gruppen auf Klimawandel gestört werden. Es bleibt eine große Herausforderung die komplexen Dynamiken und möglichen Gefahren des zukünftigen Klimawandels zu verstehen und vorherzusagen. Wir empfehlen weitere Studien, die die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Arten und Artengesellschaften untersuchen. KW - Insekten KW - Klimaänderung KW - Pflanzen KW - Höhenstufe KW - climate change KW - insects KW - altitudinal gradient KW - extreme events KW - Klimawandel KW - Insekten KW - Höhengradient KW - Extremereignisse Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-87758 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Joschinski, Jens A1 - Hovestadt, Thomas A1 - Krauss, Jochen T1 - Coping with shorter days: do phenology shifts constrain aphid fitness? JF - PeerJ N2 - Climate change can alter the phenology of organisms. It may thus lead seasonal organisms to face different day lengths than in the past, and the fitness consequences of these changes are as yet unclear. To study such effects, we used the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum as a model organism, as it has obligately asexual clones which can be used to study day length effects without eliciting a seasonal response. We recorded life-history traits under short and long days, both with two realistic temperature cycles with means differing by 2 °C. In addition, we measured the population growth of aphids on their host plant Pisum sativum. We show that short days reduce fecundity and the length of the reproductive period of aphids. Nevertheless, this does not translate into differences at the population level because the observed fitness costs only become apparent late in the individual's life. As expected, warm temperature shortens the development time by 0.7 days/°C, leading to faster generation times. We found no interaction of temperature and day length. We conclude that day length changes cause only relatively mild costs, which may not decelerate the increase in pest status due to climate change. KW - Homoptera aphididae KW - clock reproduction ecology KW - phenotypic plasticity KW - phenology shifts KW - insect timing KW - physiological constraints KW - day length KW - circadian rhythms KW - Acyrthosiphon pisum KW - climate change Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-148382 VL - 3 IS - e1103 ER - TY - THES A1 - Hoiß, Bernhard T1 - Effects of climate change, extreme events and management on plants, pollinators and mutualistic interaction networks T1 - Auswirkungen von Klimawandel, Extremereignissen und Management auf Pflanzen, Bestäuber und mutualistische Netzwerke N2 - I. Climate change comprises average temperatures rise, changes in the distribution of precipitation and an increased amount and intensity of extreme climatic events in the last decades. Considering these serious changes in the abiotic environment it seems obvious that ecosystems also change. Flora and fauna have to adapt to the fast changing conditions, migrate or go extinct. This might result in shifts in biodiversity, species composition, species interactions and in ecosystem functioning and services. Mountains play an important role in the research of these climate impacts. They are hotspots of biodiversity and can be used as powerful natural experiments as they provide, within short distances, the opportunity to research changes in the ecosystem induced by different climatic contexts. In this dissertation two approaches were pursued: i) surveys of biodiversity, trait dominance and assembly rules in communities depending on the climatic context and different management regimes were conducted (chapters II and III) and ii) the effects of experimental climate treatments on essential ecosystem features along the altitudinal gradient were assessed (chapters IV, V and VI). II. We studied the relative importance of management, an altitudinal climatic gradient and their interactions for plant species richness and the dominance of pollination types in 34 alpine grasslands. Species richness peaked at intermediate temperatures and was higher in grazed grasslands compared to non-managed grasslands. We found the climatic context and also management to influence the distribution and dominance structures of wind- and insect-pollinated plants. Our results indicate that extensive grazing maintains high plant diversity over the full subalpine gradient. Rising temperatures may cause an upward shift of the diversity peak of plants and may also result in changed species composition and adaptive potential of pollination types. III. On the same alpine grasslands we studied the impact of the climatic context along an altitudinal gradient on species richness and community assembly in bee communities. Species richness and abundance declined linearly with increasing altitude. Bee species were more closely related at high altitudes than at low altitudes. The proportion of social and ground-nesting species, as well as mean body size and altitudinal range of bees, increased with increasing altitude, whereas the mean geographic distribution decreased. Our results suggest that community assembly at high altitudes is dominated by environmental filtering effects, while the relative importance of competition increases at low altitudes. We conclude that ongoing climate change poses a threat for alpine specialists with adaptations to cool environments but low competitive capacities. IV. We determined the impacts of short-term climate events on flower phenology and assessed whether those impacts differed between lower and higher altitudes. For that we simulated advanced and delayed snowmelt as well as drought events in a multi site experiment along an altitudinal gradient. Flower phenology was strongly affected by altitude, however, this effect declined through the season. The manipulative treatments caused only few changes in flowering phenology. The effects of advanced snowmelt were significantly greater at higher than at lower sites, but altitude did not influence the effect of the other treatments. The length of flowering duration was not significantly influenced by treatments. Our data indicate a rather low risk of drought events on flowering phenology in the Bavarian Alps. V. Changes in the structure of plant-pollinator networks were assessed along an altitudinal gradient combined with the experimental simulation of potential consequences of climate change: extreme drought events, advanced and delayed snowmelt. We found a trend of decreasing specialisation and therefore increasing complexity in networks with increasing altitude. After advanced snowmelt or drought networks were more specialised especially at higher altitudes compared to control plots. Our results show that changes in the network structures after climate manipulations depend on the climatic context and reveal an increasing susceptibility of plant-pollinator networks with increasing altitude. VI. The aim of this study was to determine the combined effects of extreme climatic events and altitude on leaf CN (carbon to nitrogen) ratios and herbivory rates in different plant guilds. We found no overall effect of climate manipulations (extreme drought events, advanced and delayed snowmelt) on leaf CN ratios and herbivory rates. However, plant guilds differed in CN ratios and herbivory rates and responded differently to altitude. CN ratios of forbs (legume and non-legume) decreased with altitude, whereas CN ratios of grasses increased with altitude. Further, CN ratios and herbivory rates increased during the growing season, indicating a decrease of food plant quality during the growing season. Insect herbivory rates were driven by food plant quality. Contrasting altitudinal responses of forbs versus grasses give reason to expect changed dominance structures among plant guilds with ongoing climate change. VII. This dissertation contributes to the understanding of factors that determine the composition and biotic interactions of communities in different climates. The results presented indicate that warmer climates will not only change species richness but also the assembly-rules for plant and bee communities depending on the species' functional traits. Our investigations provide insights in the resilience of different ecosystem features and processes towards climate change and how this resilience depends on the environmental context. It seems that mutualistic interactions are more susceptible to short-term climate events than flowering phenology and antagonistic interactions such as herbivory. However, to draw more general conclusions more empirical data is needed. N2 - I. Das Klima ändert sich: die Durchschnittstemperaturen steigen, die Niederschlagsverteilung ändert sich und sowohl die Anzahl als auch die Intensität von klimatischen Extremereignissen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten zugenommen. In Anbetracht dieser beträchtlichen Veränderungen in der abiotischen Umwelt scheint es offensichtlich, dass sich auch die Ökosysteme verändern. Flora und Fauna müssen sich an die sich schnell verändernden Bedingungen anpassen, wandern oder sie sterben aus. Dies kann zu Veränderungen in der Biodiversität, der Artzusammensetzung, den Ökosystemfunktionen sowie von Ökosystemdienstleistungen führen. Gebirge spielen eine wichtige Rolle in der Erforschung dieser Klimafolgen. Sie sind Biodiversitäts-Hotspots und können als großräumige natürliche Experimente genutzt werden, da sie die Möglichkeit bieten, innerhalb kurzer Distanzen Veränderungen im Ökosystem unter verschiedenen klimatischen Bedingungen zu untersuchen. In dieser Dissertation wurden zwei Ansätze verfolgt: i) Es wurden Untersuchungen zur Abhängigkeit von Biodiversität, der Dominanz von funktionalen Merkmalen sowie den Gesetzmäßigkeiten in der Zusammensetzung von Artengemeinschaften vom klimatischen Kontext sowie verschiedenen Management Regimen durchgeführt. ii) Die Effekte von Klimaexperimenten auf essentielle Ökosystemeigenschaften, biotische Interaktionen und Nahrungsnetze entlang eines Höhengradienten wurden untersucht. II. Die relative Bedeutung von Höhenlage, Bewirtschaftungsform sowie ihre Interaktionen für den Artenreichtum von Pflanzen und die Dominanz von Bestäubungstypen wurden in 34 alpinen Wiesen untersucht. Der Artenreichtum erreichte bei mittleren Temperaturen ein Maximum und war auf beweideten Flächen höher als auf nicht bewirtschafteten Wiesen. Wir stellten außerdem fest, dass sowohl der klimatische Kontext als auch die Bewirtschaftungsform die Verteilung und Dominanzstrukturen von wind- und insektenbestäubten Pflanzen beeinflusste. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass extensive Beweidung eine hohe Artenvielfalt über den gesamten subalpinen Gradienten erhält. Steigende Temperaturen könnten eine Verschiebung des Bereiches mit maximaler Artenvielfalt nach oben sowie veränderte Zusammensetzungen von Artengemeinschaften und Veränderungen in der Bedeutung von Bestäubungstypen als Anpassung verursachen. III. Auf den selben alpinen Wiesen untersuchten wir den Einfluss der klimatischen Gegebenheiten entlang des Höhengradienten auf die Artenzahl und die Gesetzmäßigkeiten in der Zusammensetzung von Wildbienen Artengemeinschaften. Die Artenzahl und Abundanz nahm mit zunehmender Höhe linear ab. Die Bienenarten in höheren Lagen waren näher miteinander verwandt als in niedrigen Lagen. Der Anteil sozialer, im Boden nistender Arten sowie die mittlere Körpergröße und Höhenverbreitung der Bienen nahm mit zunehmender Höhe zu, wohingegen die mittlere geographische Verbreitung der Arten abnahm. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Zusammensetzung von Artengemeinschaften in höheren Lagen primär vom Filtereffekt der Umwelt bestimmt wird, wohingegen der Einfluss von Konkurrenz in niedrigen Lagen an Bedeutung gewinnt. Wir folgern, dass der fortschreitende Klimawandel eine Gefährdung für alpine Spezialisten darstellt, die zwar Anpassungen an kühle Bedingungen aber oft eine nur geringe Konkurrenzfähigkeit aufweisen. IV. Wir untersuchten die Auswirkung von kurzzeitigen klimatischen Ereignissen auf die Blütenphänologie und analysierten, ob sich diese Auswirkungen zwischen hohen und tiefen Lagen unterscheiden. Dazu simulierten wir verfrühte und verspätete Schneeschmelze sowie Dürreereignisse in Experimenten auf multiplen Standorten entlang eines Höhengradienten. Die Blütenphänologie wurde von der Höhenlage stark beeinflusst, dieser Effekt nahm im Laufe der Saison allerdings ab. Die Manipulationen zeitigten nur wenige Effekte auf die Blühphänologie. Die Auswirkungen von verfrühter Schneeschmelze waren auf hohen Flächen signifikant höher als in niedrigen Lagen, es wurden jedoch keine Unterschiede für die anderen Behandlungen zwischen den Höhenstufen gefunden. Die Blühdauer wurde durch die Behandlungen nicht beeinflusst. Unsere Daten zeigen ein relativ geringes Risiko für die Blütenphänologie durch Dürreereignisse in den bayerischen Alpen auf. V. Veränderungen in der Struktur von Pflanzen-Bestäuber Netzwerken wurden entlang eines Höhengradienten in Kombination mit der experimentellen Simulation von potentiellen Konsequenzen des Klimawandels (extreme Dürre, verfrühte und verspätete Schneeschmelze) untersucht. Wir fanden einen Trend hin zu einem abnehmenden Spezialisierungsgrad und daher einer Zunahme der Komplexität in Netzwerken mit zunehmender Höhe. Die Netzwerke nach verfrühter Schneeschmelze und nach Dürre waren, insbesondere in höheren Lagen, stärker spezialisiert als in den Kontrollflächen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Veränderungen in den Netzwerkstrukturen nach Klimamanipulationen vom klimatischen Zusammenhang abhängen und zeigen auf, dass die Anfälligkeit von Pflanzen-Bestäuber Netzwerken mit der Höhe zunimmt. VI. Das Ziel dieser Studie war es die kombinierten Auswirkungen von kurzzeitigen klimatischen Ereignissen und Meereshöhe auf das CN (Kohlenstoff zu Stickstoff) Verhältnis in Blättern und den Blattfraß in verschiedenen Pflanzengruppen zu untersuchen. Wir fanden keinen Gesamteffekt der Klimamanipulationen (extremes Dürreereignis, verfrühte und verspätete Schneeschmelze) auf das CN Verhältnis und die Herbivorieraten. Die Pflanzengruppen unterschieden sich jedoch in ihrer Reaktion auf die Meereshöhe hinsichtlich ihres CN Verhältnisses und des Blattfraßes. Das CN Verhältnis in Gräsern nahm mit der Höhe zu, wohingegen das CN Verhältnis in den restlichen krautigen Pflanzen mit zunehmender Höhe abnahm. Außerdem nahmen CN Verhältnis und die Herbivorierate im Laufe der Saison zu, was auf eine Abnahme der Futterqualität im Saisonverlauf hindeutet. Die Herbivorieraten wurden von der Futterqualität der Pflanzen bestimmt. Die gegensätzlichen Muster von Gräsern und anderen krautigen Pflanzen über die Höhe lassen veränderte Dominanzstrukturen zwischen Pflanzengruppen mit fortschreitendem Klimawandel zu erwarten. VII. Diese Dissertation leistet einen Beitrag zur Identifikation von Gesetzmäßigkeiten in der Zusammensetzung von Artengemeinschaften unter unterschiedlichen klimatischen Bedingungen. Die präsentierten Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass ein wärmeres Klima nicht nur den Artenreichtum, sondern auch diese Gesetzmäßigkeiten für Pflanzen- und Bienenvergesellschaftungen in Abhängigkeit von den funktionellen Merkmalen der Arten verändern wird. Unsere Untersuchungen liefern Erkenntnisse über die Stabilität verschiedener Ökosystemaspekte und -prozesse gegenüber dem Klimawandel und wie diese Stabilität vom Umweltkontext abhängt. Es scheint, dass mutualistische Interaktionen anfälliger sind für kurzfristige Klimaereignisse als die Phänologie von Blüten oder antagonistische Interaktionen wie die Herbivorie. Um allgemeinere Rückschlüsse ziehen zu können bedarf es jedoch dringend weiterer empirischer Daten. KW - Klimaänderung KW - Alpen KW - Biodiversität KW - Bestäubungsökologie KW - Mutualismus KW - climate change KW - land use KW - altitudinal gradient KW - elevation KW - life history traits KW - bees KW - vascular plants KW - alpine ecosystems KW - environmental filtering KW - Klimawandel KW - Extremereignisse KW - Management KW - Gefäßpflanzen KW - mutualistische Netzwerke KW - Pflanzen-Bestäuber-Interaktionen KW - Höhengradient Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-87919 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ermert, Volker A1 - Fink, Andreas H. A1 - Morse, Andrew P. A1 - Paeth, Heiko T1 - The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Malaria Risk due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Africa JF - Environmental Health Perspectives N2 - BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model. METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate. RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease. CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades. KW - climate change KW - West Africa KW - highland malaria KW - malaria KW - malaria model KW - malaria projection KW - Sahel KW - transmission KW - model KW - highlands KW - temperatures KW - validation KW - resurgence KW - scenarios KW - epidemic KW - deseases Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-135562 VL - 120 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ditzel, Pia A1 - König, Sebastian A1 - Musembi, Peter A1 - Peters, Marcell K. T1 - Correlation between coral reef condition and the diversity and abundance of fishes and sea urchins on an East African coral reef JF - Oceans N2 - Coral reefs are one of the most diverse marine ecosystems, providing numerous ecosystem services. This present study investigated the relationship between coral reef condition and the diversity and abundance of fishes, on a heavily fished East African coral reef at Gazi Bay, Kenya. Underwater visual censuses were conducted on thirty 50 × 5 m belt transects to assess the abundance and diversity of fishes. In parallel, a 25-m length of each of the same transects was recorded with photo-quadrats to assess coral community structure and benthic characteristics. For statistical analyses, multi-model inference based on the Akaike Information Criterion was used to evaluate the support for potential predictor variables of coral reef and fish diversity. We found that coral genus richness was negatively correlated with the abundance of macroalgae, whereas coral cover was positively correlated with both the abundance of herbivorous invertebrates (sea urchins) and with fish family richness. Similarly, fish family richness appeared mainly correlated with coral cover and invertebrate abundance, although no correlates of fish abundance could be identified. Coral and fish diversity were very low, but it appears that, contrary to some locations on the same coast, sea urchin abundance was not high enough to be having a negative influence on coral and fish assemblages. Due to increasing threats to coral reefs, it is important to understand the relationship among the components of the coral reef ecosystem on overfished reefs such as that at Gazi Bay. KW - coral reef ecosystem KW - coral reef resilience KW - global warming KW - climate change KW - overfishing KW - indicator species Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-284503 SN - 2673-1924 VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 14 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dietz, Andreas J. A1 - Conrad, Christopher A1 - Kuenzer, Claudia A1 - Gesell, Gerhard A1 - Dech, Stefan T1 - Identifying Changing Snow Cover Characteristics in Central Asia between 1986 and 2014 from Remote Sensing Data JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Central Asia consists of the five former Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, therefore comprising an area of similar to 4 Mio km(2). The continental climate is characterized by hot and dry summer months and cold winter seasons with most precipitation occurring as snowfall. Accordingly, freshwater supply is strongly depending on the amount of accumulated snow as well as the moment of its release after snowmelt. The aim of the presented study is to identify possible changes in snow cover characteristics, consisting of snow cover duration, onset and offset of snow cover season within the last 28 years. Relying on remotely sensed data originating from medium resolution imagers, these snow cover characteristics are extracted on a daily basis. The resolution of 500-1000 m allows for a subsequent analysis of changes on the scale of hydrological sub-catchments. Long-term changes are identified from this unique dataset, revealing an ongoing shift towards earlier snowmelt within the Central Asian Mountains. This shift can be observed in most upstream hydro catchments within Pamir and Tian Shan Mountains and it leads to a potential change of freshwater availability in the downstream regions, exerting additional pressure on the already tensed situation. KW - AVHRR data KW - satellite KW - Northern Xinjiang KW - cloud KW - products KW - Central Asia KW - climate change KW - Amu Darya KW - Syr Darya KW - Tian Shan KW - snow KW - snow cover KW - snow cover duration KW - Pamir KW - AVHRR KW - MODIS KW - algorithm KW - validation Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-114470 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 6 IS - 12 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cornelius, Christine A1 - Leingärtner, Annette A1 - Hoiss, Bernhard A1 - Krauss, Jochen A1 - Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf A1 - Menzel, Annette T1 - Phenological response of grassland species to manipulative snowmelt and drought along an altitudinal gradient JF - Journal of Experimental Botany N2 - Plant communities in the European Alps are assumed to be highly affected by climate change, as the temperature rise in this region is above the global average. It is predicted that higher temperatures will lead to advanced snowmelt dates and that the number of extreme weather events will increase. The aims of this study were to determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on flower phenology and to assess whether those impacts differed between lower and higher altitudes. In 2010, an experiment simulating advanced and delayed snowmelt as well as a drought event was conducted along an altitudinal transect approximately every 250 m (600–2000 m above sea level) in the Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany. The study showed that flower phenology was strongly affected by altitude; however, there were few effects of the manipulative treatments on flowering. The effects of advanced snowmelt were significantly greater at higher than at lower sites, but no significant difference was found between both altitudinal bands for the other treatments. The response of flower phenology to temperature declined through the season and the length of flowering duration was not significantly influenced by treatments. The stronger effect of advanced snowmelt at higher altitudes may be a response to differences in treatment intensity across the gradient. Consequently, shifts in the date of snowmelt due to global warming may affect species more at higher than at lower altitudes, as changes may be more pronounced at higher altitudes. These data indicate a rather low risk of drought events on flowering phenology in the Bavarian Alps. KW - flowering KW - advanced KW - snowmelt KW - Alps KW - BBCH KW - climate change KW - delayed snowmelt Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-126888 VL - 64 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Classen, Alice A1 - Eardley, Connal D. A1 - Hemp, Andreas A1 - Peters, Marcell K. A1 - Peters, Ralph S. A1 - Ssymank, Axel A1 - Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf T1 - Specialization of plant-pollinator interactions increases with temperature at Mt. Kilimanjaro JF - Ecology and Evolution N2 - Aim: Species differ in their degree of specialization when interacting with other species, with significant consequences for the function and robustness of ecosystems. In order to better estimate such consequences, we need to improve our understanding of the spatial patterns and drivers of specialization in interaction networks. Methods: Here, we used the extensive environmental gradient of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, East Africa) to study patterns and drivers of specialization, and robustness of plant–pollinator interactions against simulated species extinction with standardized sampling methods. We studied specialization, network robustness and other network indices of 67 quantitative plant–pollinator networks consisting of 268 observational hours and 4,380 plant–pollinator interactions along a 3.4 km elevational gradient. Using path analysis, we tested whether resource availability, pollinator richness, visitation rates, temperature, and/or area explain average specialization in pollinator communities. We further linked pollinator specialization to different pollinator taxa, and species traits, that is, proboscis length, body size, and species elevational ranges. Results: We found that specialization decreased with increasing elevation at different levels of biological organization. Among all variables, mean annual temperature was the best predictor of average specialization in pollinator communities. Specialization differed between pollinator taxa, but was not related to pollinator traits. Network robustness against simulated species extinctions of both plants and pollinators was lowest in the most specialized interaction networks, that is, in the lowlands. Conclusions: Our study uncovers patterns in plant–pollinator specialization along elevational gradients. Mean annual temperature was closely linked to pollinator specialization. Energetic constraints, caused by short activity timeframes in cold highlands, may force ectothermic species to broaden their dietary spectrum. Alternatively or in addition, accelerated evolutionary rates might facilitate the establishment of specialization under warm climates. Despite the mechanisms behind the patterns have yet to be fully resolved, our data suggest that temperature shifts in the course of climate change may destabilize pollination networks by affecting network architecture. KW - altitudinal gradient KW - climate change KW - ecological network KW - functional traits KW - generalization KW - mutualistic interactions KW - network specialization index (H2′) KW - pollination KW - robustness KW - specialization Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-235959 VL - 10 IS - 4 ER - TY - THES A1 - Beyer, Ulrike T1 - Regionale Niederschlagsänderungen in Namibia bei anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt T1 - Regional rainfall changes in Namibia under conditions of man-made enhanced greenhouse warming N2 - Diese Dissertation präsentiert Ergebnisse regionaler Niederschlagsabschätzungen für Namibia bei anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt, die mit der Methode des Statistischen Downscaling erzielt wurden. Über statistische Transferfunktionen werden Beziehungen zwischen großskaliger atmosphärischer Zirkulation und Namibischen Sommerregen aufgestellt. Dazu werden in einer 30-jährigen Kalibrierungsperiode Hauptkomponenten von Geopotentiellen Höhen verschiedener atmosphärischer Niveaus (300, 500, 1000hPa) mit den Niederschlagsmonatssummen (November bis März) von 84 Namibischen Stationen durch multiple Regressionsanalysen verknüpft, die für jede Station oder alternativ für Gitternetzniederschlagsdaten berechnet werden. Nach der Verifikation der statistischen Zusammenhänge in einem unabhängigen Zeitraum werden Regressionsmodelle jener Stationen bzw. Gitterpunkte selektiert, die mit signifikanten Korrelationen von r>0.4 zwischen beobachteten und modellierten Werten ausreichende Qualität garantieren. Diese Modelle werden eingesetzt, um unter Verwendung simulierter ECHAM3-T42 und ECHAM4tr-T42 Geopotentialdaten den lokalen Niederschlag für die jeweiligen Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien abzuschätzen. Als zusätzliche Methode, um die großskalige atmosphärische Zirkulation mit lokalen Stationsdaten zu verknüpfen, werden kanonische Korrelationsanalysen durchgeführt. Unabhängig von der Verfahrensweise resultieren für Klimabedingungen dreifacher bzw. transient ansteigender CO2-Konzentrationen im Vergleich zu einem Referenzzeitraum (1961-90) zunehmende Niederschläge in den nördlichen und östlichen Teilen Namibias von Dezember bis Februar. In den südlichen und südwestlichen Regionen sind von November bis Januar geringe Abnahmen zu verzeichnen. Die Abschätzungen für März zeigen einen deutlichen Rückgang der Niederschläge in ganz Namibia. Diese Ergebnisse weisen auf eine intensivierte, akzentuiertere Regenzeit hin, auch wenn die Gesamtmenge der Niederschläge unter Bedingungen des anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekts mehr oder weniger gleich bleibt. Daher ist es von besonderer Bedeutung, die Abschätzungen der Niederschlagsänderungen auf monatlicher Ebene durchzuführen. Weitere Untersuchungen beinhalten die Trennung thermischer und dynamischer Effekte in den zur Abschätzung herangezogenen ECHAM3 und ECHAM4 Zirkulationsdaten. Durch die globale Erwärmung kommt es zu einer Anhebung der Geopotentiellen Höhen der Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien. Durch die Korrektur des Uplifting-Prozesses werden dynamisch induzierte Auswirkungen auf das Niederschlagsgeschehen erfasst. Áus der Verwendung uplifting-korrigierter Geopotentialdaten als Prädiktoren in der Downscaling-Prozedur resultieren sowohl im positiven als auch negativen Bereich geringere Änderungsraten in den Abschätzungsergebnissen. Ohne Zweifel reagiert das Klimasystem auf den anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekt. In Bezug auf zukünftige Namibische Sommerregen ist es von besonderer Bedeutung die Auswirkungen des Treibhauseffekts regional und temporal zu differenzieren. N2 - This thesis presents results of regional rainfall assessments in Namibia, under conditions of man-made enhanced greenhouse warming. The results are obtained by statistical downscaling procedures. Relations between large-scale atmospheric circulation and Namibian summer rainfall are established by statistical transfer functions. For this purpose, principle components of geopotential heights of different atmospheric levels (300, 500, 1000hPa) and monthly rainfall data of 84 Namibian stations are linked by stepwise multiple regression analyses for every station, or alternatively for gridded rainfall data. The analyses were done on a monthly basis (November – March) during a 30-year calibration period. After verifying these statistical relations in an independent period, stations, or grids, with regression models of sufficient quality (significant correlation r>0.4 between observed and modeled data) are selected and used to assess local rainfall for greenhouse gas-scenarios from simulated ECHAM3-T42 and ECHAM4tr-T42 geopotential height data. As additional method to connect large scale circulation features with local station rainfall data, canonical correlation analyses are applied. Independent of the procedure, results for climate conditions of threefold respectively transient increase in CO2-concentrations, compared to a reference period (1961-90), show an increase of rainfall in northern and eastern parts of Namibia for December to February. Slight decreases in southern and southwestern regions from November to January are seen. Assessments for March indicate a distinct decrease over the whole country. These findings point to an intensified, more accentuated rainy season, however, the amount of rainfall remains more or less the same under conditions of enhanced greenhouse warming. Therefore it is of special importance to assess rainfall changes on a monthly basis. Further investigations consist of the separation of thermal and dynamical effects in ECHAM3 and ECHAM4 circulation data. Global warming produces a thermal uplifting of the geopotential heights used in climate change scenarios. By correction of this uplifting process, dynamical induced effects of rainfall events are captured. The use of uplifting corrected geopotential heights as predictors in the downscaling procedure in general leads to smaller changes of rainfall in the assessment results, both in positive and negative range. There is no doubt that the climate system reacts to man-made enhanced greenhouse warming. With regard to future Namibian summer rainfall, it is important to differentiate the effects of greenhouse warming on a regional and temporal scale. KW - Namibia KW - Niederschlag KW - Treibhauseffekt KW - Treibhausgas KW - Anthropogene Klimaänderung KW - Skalierbarkeit KW - Niederschlag KW - Namibia KW - Treibhauseffekt KW - Statistisches Downscaling KW - Regionale Klimamodellierung KW - Multiple Regressionsanalyse KW - Klimawandel KW - Rainfall KW - Namibia KW - greenhouse warming KW - statistical downscaling KW - regional climate modeling KW - multiple regression analyse KW - climate change KW - Africa Y1 - 2001 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-1181615 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ayanu, Yohannes A1 - Conrad, Christopher A1 - Jentsch, Anke A1 - Koellner, Thomas T1 - Unveiling undercover cropland inside forests using landscape variables: a supplement to remote sensing image classification JF - PLoS ONE N2 - The worldwide demand for food has been increasing due to the rapidly growing global population, and agricultural lands have increased in extent to produce more food crops. The pattern of cropland varies among different regions depending on the traditional knowledge of farmers and availability of uncultivated land. Satellite images can be used to map cropland in open areas but have limitations for detecting undergrowth inside forests. Classification results are often biased and need to be supplemented with field observations. Undercover cropland inside forests in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia was assessed using field observed percentage cover of land use/land cover classes, and topographic and location parameters. The most influential factors were identified using Boosted Regression Trees and used to map undercover cropland area. Elevation, slope, easterly aspect, distance to settlements, and distance to national park were found to be the most influential factors determining undercover cropland area. When there is very high demand for growing food crops, constrained under restricted rights for clearing forest, cultivation could take place within forests as an undercover. Further research on the impact of undercover cropland on ecosystem services and challenges in sustainable management is thus essential. KW - climate change KW - land-cover classification KW - bale mountains national park KW - sub-saharan africa KW - agroforestry systems KW - biodiversity conservation KW - ecosystem services KW - topographic aspect KW - wheat-varieties Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-151686 VL - 10 IS - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Asare-Kyei, Daniel A1 - Forkuor, Gerald A1 - Venus, Valentijn T1 - Modeling Flood Hazard Zones at the Sub-District Level with the Rational Model Integrated with GIS and Remote Sensing Approaches JF - Water N2 - Robust risk assessment requires accurate flood intensity area mapping to allow for the identification of populations and elements at risk. However, available flood maps in West Africa lack spatial variability while global datasets have resolutions too coarse to be relevant for local scale risk assessment. Consequently, local disaster managers are forced to use traditional methods such as watermarks on buildings and media reports to identify flood hazard areas. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were combined with hydrological and statistical models to delineate the spatial limits of flood hazard zones in selected communities in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Benin. The approach involves estimating peak runoff concentrations at different elevations and then applying statistical methods to develop a Flood Hazard Index (FHI). Results show that about half of the study areas fall into high intensity flood zones. Empirical validation using statistical confusion matrix and the principles of Participatory GIS show that flood hazard areas could be mapped at an accuracy ranging from 77% to 81%. This was supported with local expert knowledge which accurately classified 79% of communities deemed to be highly susceptible to flood hazard. The results will assist disaster managers to reduce the risk to flood disasters at the community level where risk outcomes are first materialized. KW - climate change KW - rational model KW - community KW - flood hazard index KW - West Africa KW - GIS KW - vulnerability KW - performance KW - impact KW - risk KW - mapping KW - runoff Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-151581 VL - 7 SP - 3531 EP - 3564 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Alavipanah, Sadroddin A1 - Wegmann, Martin A1 - Qureshi, Salman A1 - Weng, Qihao A1 - Koellner, Thomas T1 - The role of vegetation in mitigating urban land surface temperatures: a case study of Munich, Germany during the warm season JF - Sustainability N2 - The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC) data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC), MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC) database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i) the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii) a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area. KW - Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) KW - cities KW - buildings KW - Land Surface Temperature (LST) KW - urban vegetation KW - climate change KW - heat waves Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-143447 VL - 7 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad A1 - Soltani, Salim A1 - Aich, Valentin T1 - Impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Kunduz River Basin, Afghanistan JF - Climate N2 - The Kunduz River is one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya Basin in North Afghanistan. Many communities live in the Kunduz River Basin (KRB), and its water resources have been the basis of their livelihoods for many generations. This study investigates climate change impacts on the KRB catchment. Rare station data are, for the first time, used to analyze systematic trends in temperature, precipitation, and river discharge over the past few decades, while using Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen trend statistics. The trends show that the hydrology of the basin changed significantly over the last decades. A comparison of landcover data of the river basin from 1992 and 2019 shows significant changes that have additional impact on the basin hydrology, which are used to interpret the trend analysis. There is considerable uncertainty due to the data scarcity and gaps in the data, but all results indicate a strong tendency towards drier conditions. An extreme warming trend, partly above 2 °C since the 1960s in combination with a dramatic precipitation decrease by more than −30% lead to a strong decrease in river discharge. The increasing glacier melt compensates the decreases and leads to an increase in runoff only in the highland parts of the upper catchment. The reduction of water availability and the additional stress on the land leads to a strong increase of barren land and a reduction of vegetation cover. The detected trends and changes in the basin hydrology demand an active management of the already scarce water resources in order to sustain water supply for agriculture and ecosystems in the KRB. KW - climate change KW - Kunduz River Basin KW - trend analysis KW - river discharge KW - landcover changes Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-213199 SN - 2225-1154 VL - 8 IS - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aich, Valentin A1 - Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad A1 - Knuerr, Alec A1 - Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed A1 - Hattermann, Fred A1 - Paeth, Heiko A1 - Scanlon, Andrew A1 - Paton, Eva Nora T1 - Climate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations JF - Climate N2 - Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed. KW - climate change KW - Afghanistan KW - Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia KW - trend analysis KW - Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) KW - Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) KW - growing season length (GSL) Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-198024 SN - 2225-1154 VL - 5 IS - 2 ER -