TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ermert, Volker
A1  - Fink, Andreas H.
A1  - Morse, Andrew P.
A1  - Paeth, Heiko
T1  - The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Malaria Risk due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Africa
JF  - Environmental Health Perspectives
N2  - BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model. 
METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate. 
RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease. 
CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.
KW  - climate change
KW  - West Africa
KW  - highland malaria
KW  - malaria
KW  - malaria model
KW  - malaria projection
KW  - Sahel
KW  - transmission
KW  - model
KW  - highlands
KW  - temperatures
KW  - validation
KW  - resurgence
KW  - scenarios
KW  - epidemic
KW  - deseases
Y1  - 2012
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-135562
VL  - 120
IS  - 1
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sponholz, Barbara
T1  - Phénoménes karstiques dans les roches siliceuses au Niger oriental
N2  - Dans le Niger oriental, des phénomenes karstiques sont fréquents dans les roches siliceuses: gres, silcretes, croûtes ferrugineuses, roches cristallines. A partir des études géomorphologiques et micromorphologiques, on peut conclure a une kartsification, au sense de production de formes par dissolution. Les résultats permettent de dater du Tertiaire inférieur la principale période de karstification. La répartition régionale des formes induites par cette karstification indique une dépendance probable des conditions paléoclimatiques. Actuellement le karst influe encore sur le développement des autres formes de relief.
N2  - In North-Eastern Niger karstic features occur commonly in siliceous rocks (sandstones, silcretes, ironcrusts, crystalline). On the base of geomorphological field studies and micromorphological analyses karst forming caused by rock solution is verified. The results render possible the datation of the main karstification period in Early Tertiary. The widespread distribution of similar results indicates the dependance of karstification on palaeoclimatic conditions; actually the karstic systems influence significantly the development of othe landforms.
KW  - silicate karst
KW  - geomorphology
KW  - palaeoclimatology
KW  - Sahara
KW  - Sahel
KW  - Niger
KW  - karst siliceux
KW  - geomorphologie
KW  - paléoclimat
KW  - Sahara
KW  - Sahel
KW  - Niger
Y1  - 1994
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-86833
ER  -