TY  - RPRT
A1  - Bofinger, Peter
A1  - Haas, Thomas
T1  - R-Star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy
N2  - The necessary adjustments to prominent measures of the neutral rate of interest following the COVID pandemic sparked a wide-ranging debate on the measurement and usefulness of r-star. Due to high uncertainty about relevant determinants, trend patterns and the correct estimation method, we propose in this paper a simple alternative approach derived from a standard macro model. Starting from a loss function, neutral periods can be determined in which a neutral real interest rate is observable. Using these values, a medium-term trend for a neutral interest rate can be determined. An application to the USA shows that our simple calculation of a neutral interest rate delivers comparable results to existing studies. A Taylor rule based on our neutral interest rate also does a fairly good job of explaining US monetary policy over the past 60 years.
T3  - Würzburg Economic Papers (W. E. P.) - 106 
KW  - Zins
KW  - Neutral rate of interest
KW  - Geldpolitik
KW  - equilibrium real interest rate
KW  - monetary policy rules
Y1  - 2023
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-327394
ER  -