TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hagg, Wilfried
A1  - Mayr, Elisabeth
A1  - Mannig, Birgit
A1  - Reyers, Mark
A1  - Schubert, David
A1  - Pinto, Joaquim G.
A1  - Peters, Juliane
A1  - Pieczonka, Tino
A1  - Juen, Martin
A1  - Bolch, Tobias
A1  - Paeth, Heiko
A1  - Mayer, Christoph
T1  - Future climate change and its impact on runoff generation from the debris-covered Inylchek glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan
JF  - Water
N2  - The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.
KW  - glaciers
KW  - debris-covered glaciers
KW  - hydrological modelling
KW  - climate scenarios
KW  - Tian Shan
Y1  - 2018
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-197592
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 10
IS  - 11
ER  -