TY  - JOUR
A1  - Koehler, Jonas
A1  - Bauer, André
A1  - Dietz, Andreas J.
A1  - Kuenzer, Claudia
T1  - Towards forecasting future snow cover dynamics in the European Alps — the potential of long optical remote-sensing time series
JF  - Remote Sensing
N2  - Snow is a vital environmental parameter and dynamically responsive to climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. Snow cover can be monitored at variable spatial scales using Earth Observation (EO) data. Long-lasting remote sensing missions enable the generation of multi-decadal time series and thus the detection of long-term trends. However, there have been few attempts to use these to model future snow cover dynamics. In this study, we, therefore, explore the potential of such time series to forecast the Snow Line Elevation (SLE) in the European Alps. We generate monthly SLE time series from the entire Landsat archive (1985–2021) in 43 Alpine catchments. Positive long-term SLE change rates are detected, with the highest rates (5–8 m/y) in the Western and Central Alps. We utilize this SLE dataset to implement and evaluate seven uni-variate time series modeling and forecasting approaches. The best results were achieved by Random Forests, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.79 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 258 m, Telescope (0.76, 268 m), and seasonal ARIMA (0.75, 270 m). Since the model performance varies strongly with the input data, we developed a combined forecast based on the best-performing methods in each catchment. This approach was then used to forecast the SLE for the years 2022–2029. In the majority of the catchments, the shift of the forecast median SLE level retained the sign of the long-term trend. In cases where a deviating SLE dynamic is forecast, a discussion based on the unique properties of the catchment and past SLE dynamics is required. In the future, we expect major improvements in our SLE forecasting efforts by including external predictor variables in a multi-variate modeling approach.
KW  - forecast
KW  - Earth Observation
KW  - time series
KW  - Snow Line Elevation
KW  - Alps
KW  - mountains
KW  - environmental modeling
KW  - machine learning
Y1  - 2022
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-288338
SN  - 2072-4292
VL  - 14
IS  - 18
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Bauer, Jonas
T1  - Bedeutung eines spezifischen Genpolymorphismus (IL28B) für die Verträglichkeit einer Interferontherapie bei Patienten mit chronischer Hepatitis-C-Infektion
T1  - Importance of a specific gene polymorphism (IL28B) for the tolerability of interferon therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection
N2  - Vor Einführung der direkt antiviralen Kombinationstherapien war die Kombination aus pegyliertem Interferon plus Ribavirin die Standardbehandlung für Patienten mit  chronischer Hepatitis-C-Infektion. Bei 30% der Patienten zeigten sich neurokognitive sowie depressive Nebenwirkungen, die das dauerhafte Therapieansprechen negativ beeinflussen können. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersuchten wir in unserer Arbeit bei 93 Patienten mit chronischer Hepatitis-C-Infektion den Zusammenhang zwischen drei Single Nucleotide Polymorphismen im Bereich des IL28B-Gens und der Verträglichkeit  sowie dem Therapieerfolg einer interferonbasierten Behandlung. Der Vergleich zwischen den Ergebnissen  im HADS-(Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) sowie TAPS- (Testbatterie zur Aufmerksamkeitsprüfung) Testverfahren mit den Genotypen der drei SNPs zeigte im Studienkollektiv keinen signifikanten Zusammenhang. Hinsichtlich des Therapieerfolges konnten wir bei einem der drei SNPs das C-Allel als positiven Prognosefaktor für das dauerhafte Therapieansprechen nachweisen.
N2  - Prior to the introduction of direct antiviral combination therapies, the combination of pegylated interferon plus ribavirin was the standard treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. In 30% of the patients, neurocognitive and depressive side effects were observed, which could negatively influence the sustained virological response. Against this background, the central question that motivates our work  was to investigate the association between three single nucleotide polymorphisms in the IL28B gene and the tolerability and therapeutic outcome of interferon-based treatment in 93 patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. The comparison between two test procedures, the HADS (hospital anxiety and depression scale) and TAPS (test battery for attention testing), with the genotypes of the three SNPs showed no significant association in the study population. In terms of therapeutic success, we were able to demonstrate the C allele in one of the three SNPs as a positive prognostic factor for the sustained virological response.
KW  - Interferon alpha
KW  - Verträglichkeit Interferon alpha
KW  - Nebenwirkungen interferonbasierte Hepatitis-C-Therapie
KW  - Neuropsychiatrische Nebenwirkungen Interferon alpha
KW  - Single Nucleotid Polymorphismus IL28B
Y1  - 2019
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-178519
ER  -