TY - JOUR A1 - Ziegler, Alice A1 - Meyer, Hanna A1 - Otte, Insa A1 - Peters, Marcell K. A1 - Appelhans, Tim A1 - Behler, Christina A1 - Böhning-Gaese, Katrin A1 - Classen, Alice A1 - Detsch, Florian A1 - Deckert, Jürgen A1 - Eardley, Connal D. A1 - Ferger, Stefan W. A1 - Fischer, Markus A1 - Gebert, Friederike A1 - Haas, Michael A1 - Helbig-Bonitz, Maria A1 - Hemp, Andreas A1 - Hemp, Claudia A1 - Kakengi, Victor A1 - Mayr, Antonia V. A1 - Ngereza, Christine A1 - Reudenbach, Christoph A1 - Röder, Juliane A1 - Rutten, Gemma A1 - Schellenberger Costa, David A1 - Schleuning, Matthias A1 - Ssymank, Axel A1 - Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf A1 - Tardanico, Joseph A1 - Tschapka, Marco A1 - Vollstädt, Maximilian G. R. A1 - Wöllauer, Stephan A1 - Zhang, Jie A1 - Brandl, Roland A1 - Nauss, Thomas T1 - Potential of airborne LiDAR derived vegetation structure for the prediction of animal species richness at Mount Kilimanjaro JF - Remote Sensing N2 - The monitoring of species and functional diversity is of increasing relevance for the development of strategies for the conservation and management of biodiversity. Therefore, reliable estimates of the performance of monitoring techniques across taxa become important. Using a unique dataset, this study investigates the potential of airborne LiDAR-derived variables characterizing vegetation structure as predictors for animal species richness at the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. To disentangle the structural LiDAR information from co-factors related to elevational vegetation zones, LiDAR-based models were compared to the predictive power of elevation models. 17 taxa and 4 feeding guilds were modeled and the standardized study design allowed for a comparison across the assemblages. Results show that most taxa (14) and feeding guilds (3) can be predicted best by elevation with normalized RMSE values but only for three of those taxa and two of those feeding guilds the difference to other models is significant. Generally, modeling performances between different models vary only slightly for each assemblage. For the remaining, structural information at most showed little additional contribution to the performance. In summary, LiDAR observations can be used for animal species prediction. However, the effort and cost of aerial surveys are not always in proportion with the prediction quality, especially when the species distribution follows zonal patterns, and elevation information yields similar results. KW - biodiversity KW - species richness KW - LiDAR KW - elevation KW - partial least square regression KW - arthropods KW - birds KW - bats KW - predictive modeling Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-262251 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 14 IS - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ziegler, Katrin A1 - Pollinger, Felix A1 - Böll, Susanne A1 - Paeth, Heiko T1 - Statistical modeling of phenology in Bavaria based on past and future meteorological information JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology N2 - Plant phenology is well known to be affected by meteorology. Observed changes in the occurrence of phenological phases arecommonly considered some of the most obvious effects of climate change. However, current climate models lack a representationof vegetation suitable for studying future changes in phenology itself. This study presents a statistical-dynamical modelingapproach for Bavaria in southern Germany, using over 13,000 paired samples of phenological and meteorological data foranalyses and climate change scenarios provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM). Anomalies of severalmeteorological variables were used as predictors and phenological anomalies of the flowering date of the test plantForsythiasuspensaas predictand. Several cross-validated prediction models using various numbers and differently constructed predictorswere developed, compared, and evaluated via bootstrapping. As our approach needs a small set of meteorological observationsper phenological station, it allows for reliable parameter estimation and an easy transfer to other regions. The most robust andsuccessful model comprises predictors based on mean temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, and snow depth. Its averagecoefficient of determination and root mean square error (RMSE) per station are 60% and ± 8.6 days, respectively. However, theprediction error strongly differs among stations. When transferred to other indicator plants, this method achieves a comparablelevel of predictive accuracy. Its application to two climate change scenarios reveals distinct changes for various plants andregions. The flowering date is simulated to occur between 5 and 25 days earlier at the end of the twenty-first century comparedto the phenology of the reference period (1961–1990). KW - statistical modeling KW - phenology KW - Bavaria Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-232717 SN - 0177-798X VL - 140 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Steininger, Michael A1 - Abel, Daniel A1 - Ziegler, Katrin A1 - Krause, Anna A1 - Paeth, Heiko A1 - Hotho, Andreas T1 - ConvMOS: climate model output statistics with deep learning JF - Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery N2 - Climate models are the tool of choice for scientists researching climate change. Like all models they suffer from errors, particularly systematic and location-specific representation errors. One way to reduce these errors is model output statistics (MOS) where the model output is fitted to observational data with machine learning. In this work, we assess the use of convolutional Deep Learning climate MOS approaches and present the ConvMOS architecture which is specifically designed based on the observation that there are systematic and location-specific errors in the precipitation estimates of climate models. We apply ConvMOS models to the simulated precipitation of the regional climate model REMO, showing that a combination of per-location model parameters for reducing location-specific errors and global model parameters for reducing systematic errors is indeed beneficial for MOS performance. We find that ConvMOS models can reduce errors considerably and perform significantly better than three commonly used MOS approaches and plain ResNet and U-Net models in most cases. Our results show that non-linear MOS models underestimate the number of extreme precipitation events, which we alleviate by training models specialized towards extreme precipitation events with the imbalanced regression method DenseLoss. While we consider climate MOS, we argue that aspects of ConvMOS may also be beneficial in other domains with geospatial data, such as air pollution modeling or weather forecasts. KW - Klima KW - Modell KW - Deep learning KW - Neuronales Netz KW - climate KW - neural networks KW - model output statistics Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-324213 SN - 1384-5810 VL - 37 IS - 1 ER -