TY - JOUR A1 - Steininger, Michael A1 - Abel, Daniel A1 - Ziegler, Katrin A1 - Krause, Anna A1 - Paeth, Heiko A1 - Hotho, Andreas T1 - ConvMOS: climate model output statistics with deep learning JF - Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery N2 - Climate models are the tool of choice for scientists researching climate change. Like all models they suffer from errors, particularly systematic and location-specific representation errors. One way to reduce these errors is model output statistics (MOS) where the model output is fitted to observational data with machine learning. In this work, we assess the use of convolutional Deep Learning climate MOS approaches and present the ConvMOS architecture which is specifically designed based on the observation that there are systematic and location-specific errors in the precipitation estimates of climate models. We apply ConvMOS models to the simulated precipitation of the regional climate model REMO, showing that a combination of per-location model parameters for reducing location-specific errors and global model parameters for reducing systematic errors is indeed beneficial for MOS performance. We find that ConvMOS models can reduce errors considerably and perform significantly better than three commonly used MOS approaches and plain ResNet and U-Net models in most cases. Our results show that non-linear MOS models underestimate the number of extreme precipitation events, which we alleviate by training models specialized towards extreme precipitation events with the imbalanced regression method DenseLoss. While we consider climate MOS, we argue that aspects of ConvMOS may also be beneficial in other domains with geospatial data, such as air pollution modeling or weather forecasts. KW - Klima KW - Modell KW - Deep learning KW - Neuronales Netz KW - climate KW - neural networks KW - model output statistics Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-324213 SN - 1384-5810 VL - 37 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hossfeld, Tobias A1 - Heegaard, Poul E. A1 - Kellerer, Wolfgang T1 - Comparing the scalability of communication networks and systems JF - IEEE Access N2 - Scalability is often mentioned in literature, but a stringent definition is missing. In particular, there is no general scalability assessment which clearly indicates whether a system scales or not or whether a system scales better than another. The key contribution of this article is the definition of a scalability index (SI) which quantifies if a system scales in comparison to another system, a hypothetical system, e.g., linear system, or the theoretically optimal system. The suggested SI generalizes different metrics from literature, which are specialized cases of our SI. The primary target of our scalability framework is, however, benchmarking of two systems, which does not require any reference system. The SI is demonstrated and evaluated for different use cases, that are (1) the performance of an IoT load balancer depending on the system load, (2) the availability of a communication system depending on the size and structure of the network, (3) scalability comparison of different location selection mechanisms in fog computing with respect to delays and energy consumption; (4) comparison of time-sensitive networking (TSN) mechanisms in terms of efficiency and utilization. Finally, we discuss how to use and how not to use the SI and give recommendations and guidelines in practice. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work which provides a general SI for the comparison and benchmarking of systems, which is the primary target of our scalability analysis. KW - communication networks KW - performance KW - availability KW - scalability Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-349403 VL - 11 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Nguyen, Kien A1 - Loh, Frank A1 - Hoßfeld, Tobias T1 - Challenges of Serverless Deployment in Edge-MEC-Cloud T2 - KuVS Fachgespräch - Würzburg Workshop on Modeling, Analysis and Simulation of Next-Generation Communication Networks 2023 (WueWoWAS’23) N2 - The emerging serverless computing may meet Edge Cloud in a beneficial manner as the two offer flexibility and dynamicity in optimizing finite hardware resources. However, the lack of proper study of a joint platform leaves a gap in literature about consumption and performance of such integration. To this end, this paper identifies the key questions and proposes a methodology to answer them. KW - Edge-MEC-Cloud Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-322025 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kirikkayis, Yusuf A1 - Gallik, Florian A1 - Winter, Michael A1 - Reichert, Manfred T1 - BPMNE4IoT: a framework for modeling, executing and monitoring IoT-driven processes JF - Future Internet N2 - The Internet of Things (IoT) enables a variety of smart applications, including smart home, smart manufacturing, and smart city. By enhancing Business Process Management Systems with IoT capabilities, the execution and monitoring of business processes can be significantly improved. Providing a holistic support for modeling, executing and monitoring IoT-driven processes, however, constitutes a challenge. Existing process modeling and process execution languages, such as BPMN 2.0, are unable to fully meet the IoT characteristics (e.g., asynchronicity and parallelism) of IoT-driven processes. In this article, we present BPMNE4IoT—A holistic framework for modeling, executing and monitoring IoT-driven processes. We introduce various artifacts and events based on the BPMN 2.0 metamodel that allow realizing the desired IoT awareness of business processes. The framework is evaluated along two real-world scenarios from two different domains. Moreover, we present a user study for comparing BPMNE4IoT and BPMN 2.0. In particular, this study has confirmed that the BPMNE4IoT framework facilitates the support of IoT-driven processes. KW - IoT KW - BPM KW - BPMN KW - IoT-driven processes Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-304097 SN - 1999-5903 VL - 15 IS - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Greubel, André A1 - Andres, Daniela A1 - Hennecke, Martin T1 - Analyzing reporting on ransomware incidents: a case study JF - Social Sciences N2 - Knowledge about ransomware is important for protecting sensitive data and for participating in public debates about suitable regulation regarding its security. However, as of now, this topic has received little to no attention in most school curricula. As such, it is desirable to analyze what citizens can learn about this topic outside of formal education, e.g., from news articles. This analysis is both relevant to analyzing the public discourse about ransomware, as well as to identify what aspects of this topic should be included in the limited time available for this topic in formal education. Thus, this paper was motivated both by educational and media research. The central goal is to explore how the media reports on this topic and, additionally, to identify potential misconceptions that could stem from this reporting. To do so, we conducted an exploratory case study into the reporting of 109 media articles regarding a high-impact ransomware event: the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline (located in the east of the USA). We analyzed how the articles introduced central terminology, what details were provided, what details were not, and what (mis-)conceptions readers might receive from them. Our results show that an introduction of the terminology and technical concepts of security is insufficient for a complete understanding of the incident. Most importantly, the articles may lead to four misconceptions about ransomware that are likely to lead to misleading conclusions about the responsibility for the incident and possible political and technical options to prevent such attacks in the future. KW - media analysis KW - informal education KW - IT security KW - ransomware KW - misconceptions Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-313746 SN - 2076-0760 VL - 12 IS - 5 ER - TY - INPR A1 - Dandekar, Thomas T1 - Analysing the phase space of the standard model and its basic four forces from a qubit phase transition perspective: implications for large-scale structure generation and early cosmological events N2 - The phase space for the standard model of the basic four forces for n quanta includes all possible ensemble combinations of their quantum states m, a total of n**m states. Neighbor states reach according to transition possibilities (S-matrix) with emergent time from entropic ensemble gradients. We replace the “big bang” by a condensation event (interacting qubits become decoherent) and inflation by a crystallization event – the crystal unit cell guarantees same symmetries everywhere. Interacting qubits solidify and form a rapidly growing domain where the n**m states become separated ensemble states, rising long-range forces stop ultimately further growth. After that very early events, standard cosmology with the hot fireball model takes over. Our theory agrees well with lack of inflation traces in cosmic background measurements, large-scale structure of voids and filaments, supercluster formation, galaxy formation, dominance of matter and life-friendliness. We prove qubit interactions to be 1,2,4 or 8 dimensional (agrees with E8 symmetry of our universe). Repulsive forces at ultrashort distances result from quantization, long-range forces limit crystal growth. Crystals come and go in the qubit ocean. This selects for the ability to lay seeds for new crystals, for self-organization and life-friendliness. We give energy estimates for free qubits vs bound qubits, misplacements in the qubit crystal and entropy increase during qubit decoherence / crystal formation. Scalar fields for color interaction and gravity derive from the permeating qubit-interaction field. Hence, vacuum energy gets low only inside the qubit crystal. Condensed mathematics may advantageously model free / bound qubits in phase space. KW - phase space KW - cosmology KW - emergent time KW - qubit KW - phase transition KW - bit Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-298580 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Brisch, Fabian A1 - Kassler, Andreas A1 - Vestin, Jonathan A1 - Pieska, Marcus A1 - Amend, Markus T1 - Accelerating Transport Layer Multipath Packet Scheduling for 5G-ATSSS T2 - KuVS Fachgespräch - Würzburg Workshop on Modeling, Analysis and Simulation of Next-Generation Communication Networks 2023 (WueWoWAS’23) N2 - Utilizing multiple access networks such as 5G, 4G, and Wi-Fi simultaneously can lead to increased robustness, resiliency, and capacity for mobile users. However, transparently implementing packet distribution over multiple paths within the core of the network faces multiple challenges including scalability to a large number of customers, low latency, and high-capacity packet processing requirements. In this paper, we offload congestion-aware multipath packet scheduling to a smartNIC. However, such hardware acceleration faces multiple challenges due to programming language and platform limitations. We implement different multipath schedulers in P4 with different complexity in order to cope with dynamically changing path capacities. Using testbed measurements, we show that our CMon scheduler, which monitors path congestion in the data plane and dynamically adjusts scheduling weights for the different paths based on path state information, can process more than 3.5 Mpps packets 25 μs latency. KW - multipath packet scheduling KW - P4 KW - MP-DCCP KW - 5G KW - ATSSSS Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-322052 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bayer, Daniel A1 - Pruckner, Marco T1 - A digital twin of a local energy system based on real smart meter data JF - Energy Informatics N2 - The steadily increasing usage of smart meters generates a valuable amount of high-resolution data about the individual energy consumption and production of local energy systems. Private households install more and more photovoltaic systems, battery storage and big consumers like heat pumps. Thus, our vision is to augment these collected smart meter time series of a complete system (e.g., a city, town or complex institutions like airports) with simulatively added previously named components. We, therefore, propose a novel digital twin of such an energy system based solely on a complete set of smart meter data including additional building data. Based on the additional geospatial data, the twin is intended to represent the addition of the abovementioned components as realistically as possible. Outputs of the twin can be used as a decision support for either system operators where to strengthen the system or for individual households where and how to install photovoltaic systems and batteries. Meanwhile, the first local energy system operators had such smart meter data of almost all residential consumers for several years. We acquire those of an exemplary operator and discuss a case study presenting some features of our digital twin and highlighting the value of the combination of smart meter and geospatial data. KW - digital twin KW - simulation KW - local energy system KW - decision support system KW - smart meter data utilization KW - future energy grid exploration Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-357456 VL - 6 ER -