TY  - THES
A1  - Dünkeloh, Armin
T1  - Water Balance Dynamics of Cyprus - Actual State and Impacts of Climate Change
T1  - Dynamik der Wasserbilanz von Zypern - Aktueller Zustand und Einflüsse des Klimawandels
N2  - A completely revised and enhanced version of the water balance model MODBIL of the regional water balance dynamics of Cyprus was developed for this study. The model is based on a physical, process-oriented, spatially distributed concept and is applied for the calculation of all important water balance components of the island for the time period of 1961-2004. The calibrated results are statistically analysed and visualised for the whole island area, and evaluated with respect to the renewability of natural water resources. Climate variability and changes of the past decades are analysed with regard to their influence on water balances. A further part of the study focusses on the simulation of impacts of potential climate change. The water balances are simulated under changing climatic conditions on the base of theoretical precipitation, temperature and relative humidity changes and the revealed impacts on the water balances and renewable resources are discussed. Furthermore, a first principal water balance scenario is developed for the assessment of the regional hydrological changes expected for Cyprus by the end of the 21st century. The scenarios are based on recently calculated climate change assessments for this part of the Mediterranean, under an assumed further increase of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.
N2  - Eine vollständig überarbeitete und erweiterte Version des Wasserhaushaltsmodells MODBIL ist für die Untersuchung des Wasserhaushalts auf Zypern entwickelt worden. Auf der Basis dieses physikalischen, prozessorientierten und flächendifferenzierten Modells werden alle wesentlichen Wasserhaushaltskomponenten für die gesamte Insel im Zeitraum 1961-2004 berechnet, die Ergebnisse statistisch und visuell ausgewertet sowie hinsichtlich der Erneuerbarkeit der natürlichen Wasserressourcen bewertet. Weiterhin erfolgt die Untersuchung von Klimavariabilität und Trends der letzten Jahrzehnte und deren Einfluss auf die Wasserbilanzen. Im zweiten Teil dieser Studie werden Auswirkungen potentieller Klimaänderungen anhand simulierter Wasserbilanzen unter veränderten Niederschlags-, Temperatur-, und Luftfeuchtebedingungen ermittelt und hinsichtlich deren Einfluss auf die erneuerbaren Wasserressourcen beurteilt. Abschließend folgt eine erste prinzipielle Simulation der hydrologischen Veränderungen, die für Zypern bis zum Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts zu erwarten sind. Diese Simulation basiert auf aktuellen Klimawandelabschätzungen für diese Teilregion des Mittelmeerraumes unter Verwendung eines Szenarios fortschreitender Zunahme von Treibhausgasen in der Atmosphäre.
KW  - Wasserhaushalt
KW  - Klimaänderung
KW  - Zypern
KW  - Grundwasserhaushalt
KW  - Erneuerbare Ressourcen
KW  - Wasserhaushaltsmodell
KW  - Grundwasserneubildung
KW  - erneuerbare Wasserressourcen
KW  - Klimavariabilität
KW  - Klimawandel
KW  - tragfähiges Wassermanagement
KW  - Grundwasser
KW  - water balance
KW  - groundwater recharge
KW  - renewable water resources
KW  - climate variability
KW  - climate change impacts
KW  - sustainable water management
KW  - Cyprus
KW  - Grundwasseranreicherung
KW  - Klima
KW  - Etesienklima
KW  - Klimaanalyse
Y1  - 2011
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-75165
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Saddique, Naeem
A1  - Usman, Muhammad
A1  - Bernhofer, Christian
T1  - Simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrological regimes of a sparsely gauged mountainous basin, northern Pakistan
JF  - Water
N2  - Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.
KW  - water balance
KW  - hydrological regime
KW  - evapotranspiration
KW  - uncertainties
KW  - climate change
KW  - SWAT
Y1  - 2019
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-193175
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 11
IS  - 10
ER  -