TY - JOUR A1 - Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie T1 - Revisiting the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa: the role of El Niño in the anomalies of atmospheric circulation types in Africa south of the equator JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology N2 - During strong El Niño events, below-average rainfall is expected in large parts of southern Africa. The 1992 El Niño season was associated with one of the worst drought episodes in large parts of South Africa. Using reanalysis data set from NCEP-NCAR, this study examined circulation types (CTs) in Africa south of the equator that are statistically related to the El Niño signal in the southwest Indian Ocean and the implication of this relationship during the 1992 drought episode in South Africa. A statistically significant correlation was found between the above-average Nino 3.4 index and a CT that features widespread cyclonic activity in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean, coupled with a weaker state of the south Indian Ocean high-pressure. During the analysis period, it was found that the El Niño signal enhanced the amplitude of the aforementioned CT. The impacts of the El Niño signal on CTs in southern Africa, which could have contributed to the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa, were reflected in (i) robust decrease in the frequency of occurrence of the austral summer climatology pattern of atmospheric circulation that favors southeasterly moisture fluxes, advected by the South Indian Ocean high-pressure; (ii) modulation of easterly moisture fluxes, advected by the South Atlantic Ocean high-pressure, ridging south of South Africa; (iii) and enhancement of the amplitude of CTs that both enhances subsidence over South Africa, and associated with the dominance of westerlies across the Agulhas current. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models suggested that the impact of radiative heating on the CT significantly related to El Niño might result in an anomalous increase in surface pressure at the eastern parts of South Africa. KW - South Africa KW - drought KW - El Niño Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-268569 SN - 1434-4483 VL - 146 IS - 1-2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Höhn, Stefan A1 - Frimmel, Hartwig E. A1 - Prince, Westley T1 - Syn-metamorphic sulfidation of the Gamsberg zinc deposit, South Africa JF - Mineralogy and Petrology N2 - The Mesoproterozoic Aggeneys-Gamsberg ore district, South Africa, is one of the world´s largest sulfidic base metal concentrations and well-known as a prime example of Broken Hill-type base metal deposits, traditionally interpreted as metamorphosed SEDEX deposits. Within this district, the Gamsberg deposit stands out for its huge size and strongly Zn-dominated ore ( >14 Mt contained Zn). New electron microprobe analyses and element abundance maps of sulfides and silicates point to fluid-driven sulfidation during retrograde metamorphism. Differences in the chemistry of sulfide inclusions within zoned garnet grains reflect different degrees of interaction of sulfides with high metal/sulfur-ratio with a sulfur-rich metamorphic fluid. Independent evidence of sulfidation during retrograde metamorphism comes from graphic-textured sulfide aggregates that previously have been interpreted as quenched sulfidic melts, replacement of pyrrhotite by pyrite along micro-fractures, and sulfides in phyllic alteration zones. Limited availability of fluid under retrograde conditions caused locally different degrees of segregation of Fe-rich sphalerite into Zn-rich sphalerite and pyrite, and thus considerable heterogeneity in sphalerite chemistry. The invoked sulfur-rich metamorphic fluids would have been able to sulfidize base metal-rich zones in the whole deposit and thus camouflage a potential pre-metamorphic oxidation. These findings support the recently established hypothesis of a pre-Klondikean weathering-induced oxidation event and challenge the traditional explanation of Broken Hill-type deposits as merely metamorphosed SEDEX deposits. Instead, we suggest that the massive sulfide deposits experienced a complex history, starting with initial SEDEX-type mineralization, followed by near-surface oxidation with spatial metal separation, and then sulfidation of this oxidized ore during medium- to high-grade metamorphism. KW - Gamsberg KW - metamorphic sulfidation KW - sulfide inclusions KW - base metal deposit KW - Aggeneys Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-268574 SN - 1438-1168 VL - 115 IS - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie T1 - Circulation pattern controls of wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa JF - Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics N2 - Atmospheric circulation is a vital process in the transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants around the globe. The variability of rainfall depends to some extent on the atmospheric circulation. This paper investigates synoptic situations in southern Africa that can be associated with wet days and dry days in Free State, South Africa, in addition to the underlying dynamics. Principal component analysis was applied to the T-mode matrix (variable is time series and observation is grid points at which the field was observed) of daily mean sea level pressure field from 1979 to 2018 in classifying the circulation patterns in southern Africa. 18 circulation types (CTs) were classified in the study region. From the linkage of the CTs to the observed rainfall data, from 11 stations in Free State, it was found that dominant austral winter and late austral autumn CTs have a higher probability of being associated with dry days in Free State. Dominant austral summer and late austral spring CTs were found to have a higher probability of being associated with wet days in Free State. Cyclonic/anti-cyclonic activity over the southwest Indian Ocean, explained to a good extent, the inter-seasonal variability of rainfall in Free State. The synoptic state associated with a stronger anti-cyclonic circulation at the western branch of the South Indian Ocean high-pressure, during austral summer, leading to enhanced low-level moisture transport by southeast winds was found to have the highest probability of being associated with above-average rainfall in most regions in Free State. On the other hand, the synoptic state associated with enhanced transport of cold dry air, by the extratropical westerlies, was found to have the highest probability of being associated with (winter) dryness in Free State. KW - South Africa KW - atmospheric circulation KW - circulation patterns Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-268552 SN - 1436-5065 VL - 133 IS - 5 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fleuchaus, Paul A1 - Blum, Philipp A1 - Wilde, Martina A1 - Terhorst, Birgit A1 - Butscher, Christoph T1 - Retrospective evaluation of landslide susceptibility maps and review of validation practice JF - Environmental Earth Sciences N2 - Despite the widespread application of landslide susceptibility analyses, there is hardly any information about whether or not the occurrence of recent landslide events was correctly predicted by the relevant susceptibility maps. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate four landslide susceptibility maps retrospectively in a landslide-prone area of the Swabian Alb (Germany). The predictive performance of each susceptibility map is evaluated based on a landslide event triggered by heavy rainfalls in the year 2013. The retrospective evaluation revealed significant variations in the predictive accuracy of the analyzed studies. Both completely erroneous as well as very precise predictions were observed. These differences are less attributed to the applied statistical method and more to the quality and comprehensiveness of the used input data. Furthermore, a literature review of 50 peer-reviewed articles showed that most landslide susceptibility analyses achieve very high validation scores. 73% of the analyzed studies achieved an area under curve (AUC) value of at least 80%. These high validation scores, however, do not reflect the high uncertainty in statistical susceptibility analysis. Thus, the quality assessment of landslide susceptibility maps should not only comprise an index-based, quantitative validation, but also an additional qualitative plausibility check considering local geomorphological characteristics and local landslide mechanisms. Finally, the proposed retrospective evaluation approach cannot only help to assess the quality of susceptibility maps and demonstrate the reliability of such statistical methods, but also identify issues that will enable the susceptibility maps to be improved in the future. KW - landslides KW - hazard maps KW - predictive performance KW - review KW - Swabian Alb Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-308911 SN - 1866-6280 SN - 1866-6299 VL - 80 ER -