Andreas Vollmer, Babak Saravi, Michael Vollmer, Gernot Michael Lang, Anton Straub, Roman C. Brands, Alexander Kübler, Sebastian Gubik, Stefan Hartmann

• Oroantral communication (OAC) is a common complication after tooth extraction of upper molars. Profound preoperative panoramic radiography analysis might potentially help predict OAC following tooth extraction. In this exploratory study, we evaluated n = 300 consecutive cases (100 OAC and 200 controls) and trained five machine learning algorithms (VGG16, InceptionV3, MobileNetV2, EfficientNet, and ResNet50) to predict OAC versus non-OAC (binary classification task) from the input images. Further, four oral and maxillofacial experts evaluatedOroantral communication (OAC) is a common complication after tooth extraction of upper molars. Profound preoperative panoramic radiography analysis might potentially help predict OAC following tooth extraction. In this exploratory study, we evaluated n = 300 consecutive cases (100 OAC and 200 controls) and trained five machine learning algorithms (VGG16, InceptionV3, MobileNetV2, EfficientNet, and ResNet50) to predict OAC versus non-OAC (binary classification task) from the input images. Further, four oral and maxillofacial experts evaluated the respective panoramic radiography and determined performance metrics (accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, F1-score, and receiver operating characteristics curve) of all diagnostic approaches. Cohen's kappa was used to evaluate the agreement between expert evaluations. The deep learning algorithms reached high specificity (highest specificity 100% for InceptionV3) but low sensitivity (highest sensitivity 42.86% for MobileNetV2). The AUCs from VGG16, InceptionV3, MobileNetV2, EfficientNet, and ResNet50 were 0.53, 0.60, 0.67, 0.51, and 0.56, respectively. Expert 1–4 reached an AUC of 0.550, 0.629, 0.500, and 0.579, respectively. The specificity of the expert evaluations ranged from 51.74% to 95.02%, whereas sensitivity ranged from 14.14% to 59.60%. Cohen's kappa revealed a poor agreement for the oral and maxillofacial expert evaluations (Cohen's kappa: 0.1285). Overall, present data indicate that OAC cannot be sufficiently predicted from preoperative panoramic radiography. The false-negative rate, i.e., the rate of positive cases (OAC) missed by the deep learning algorithms, ranged from 57.14% to 95.24%. Surgeons should not solely rely on panoramic radiography when evaluating the probability of OAC occurrence. Clinical testing of OAC is warranted after each upper-molar tooth extraction.…