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Future climate change and its impact on runoff generation from the debris-covered Inylchek glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-197592
  • The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the pastThe heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author: Wilfried Hagg, Elisabeth Mayr, Birgit Mannig, Mark Reyers, David Schubert, Joaquim G. Pinto, Juliane Peters, Tino Pieczonka, Martin Juen, Tobias Bolch, Heiko Paeth, Christoph Mayer
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-197592
Document Type:Journal article
Faculties:Philosophische Fakultät (Histor., philolog., Kultur- und geograph. Wissensch.) / Institut für Geographie und Geologie
Language:English
Parent Title (English):Water
ISSN:2073-4441
Year of Completion:2018
Volume:10
Issue:11
Pagenumber:1513
Source:Water 2018, 10(11), 1513; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111513
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111513
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Tag:Tian Shan; climate scenarios; debris-covered glaciers; glaciers; hydrological modelling
Release Date:2020/05/06
Date of first Publication:2018/10/25
Licence (German):License LogoCC BY: Creative-Commons-Lizenz: Namensnennung 4.0 International