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- Dissertation (1) (entfernen)
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- Englisch (1) (entfernen)
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- Crop YIelds (1) (entfernen)
Accurate crop monitoring in response to climate change at a regional or field scale
plays a significant role in developing agricultural policies, improving food security,
forecasting, and analysing global trade trends. Climate change is expected to
significantly impact agriculture, with shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, and
extreme weather events negatively affecting crop yields, soil fertility, water availability,
biodiversity, and crop growing conditions. Remote sensing (RS) can provide valuable
information combined with crop growth models (CGMs) for yield assessment by
monitoring crop development, detecting crop changes, and assessing the impact of
climate change on crop yields. This dissertation aims to investigate the potential of RS
data on modelling long-term crop yields of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR)
for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2
), Germany. The first chapter of the dissertation
describes the reasons favouring the importance of accurate crop yield predictions for
achieving sustainability in agriculture. Chapter second explores the accuracy
assessment of the synthetic RS data by fusing NDVIs of two high spatial resolution data
(high pair) (Landsat (30 m, 16-days; L) and Sentinel-2 (10 m, 5–6 days; S), with four low
spatial resolution data (low pair) (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16-days), MCD43A4 (500 m, one
day), MOD09GQ (250 m, one-day), and MOD09Q1 (250 m, 8-days)) using the spatial
and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), which fills regions' cloud
or shadow gaps without losing spatial information. The chapter finds that both L-MOD13Q1 (R2 = 0.62, RMSE = 0.11) and S-MOD13Q1 (R2 = 0.68, RMSE = 0.13) are more
suitable for agricultural monitoring than the other synthetic products fused. Chapter
third explores the ability of the synthetic spatiotemporal datasets (obtained in chapter
2) to accurately map and monitor crop yields of WW and OSR at a regional scale. The
chapter investigates and discusses the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m), temporal
(8 or 16-day) and CGMs (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric light
use efficiency approach (LUE)) for accurate crop yield estimations of both crop types.
Chapter third observes that the observations of high temporal resolution (8-day)
products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 play a significant role in accurately
measuring the yield of WW and OSR. The chapter investigates that the simple light use
efficiency (LUE) model (R2 = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17%) that required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield is highly accurate, reliable, and more
precise than the complex WOFOST model (R2 = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35%) with higher
input parameters. Chapter four researches the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion
modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for WW and OSR using the LUE
model for Bavaria from 2001 to 2019. The chapter states the high positive correlation
coefficient (R) = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R2 of synthetic accuracy and
modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR from 2001 to 2019, respectively. The chapter
analyses the impact of climate variables on crop yield predictions by observing an
increase in R2
(0.79 (WW)/0.86 (OSR)) and a decrease in RMSE (4.51/2.57 dt/ha) when
the climate effect is included in the model. The fifth chapter suggests that the coupling
of the LUE model to the random forest (RF) model can further reduce the relative root
mean square error (RRMSE) from -8% (WW) and -1.6% (OSR) and increase the R2 by
14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. The same
chapter concludes that satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature
are the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crop types. Chapter six
attempts to discuss both pros and cons of RS technology while analysing the impact of
land use diversity on crop-modelled biomass of WW and OSR. The chapter finds that
the modelled biomass of both crops is positively impacted by land use diversity to the
radius of 450 (Shannon Diversity Index ~0.75) and 1050 m (~0.75), respectively. The
chapter also discusses the future implications by stating that including some dependent
factors (such as the management practices used, soil health, pest management, and
pollinators) could improve the relationship of RS-modelled crop yields with
biodiversity. Lastly, chapter seven discusses testing the scope of new sensors such as
unmanned aerial vehicles, hyperspectral sensors, or Sentinel-1 SAR in RS for achieving
accurate crop yield predictions for precision farming. In addition, the chapter highlights
the significance of artificial intelligence (AI) or deep learning (DL) in obtaining higher
crop yield accuracies.