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Plant communities in the European Alps are assumed to be highly affected by climate change, as the temperature rise in this region is above the global average. It is predicted that higher temperatures will lead to advanced snowmelt dates and that the number of extreme weather events will increase. The aims of this study were to determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on flower phenology and to assess whether those impacts differed between lower and higher altitudes. In 2010, an experiment simulating advanced and delayed snowmelt as well as a drought event was conducted along an altitudinal transect approximately every 250 m (600–2000 m above sea level) in the Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany. The study showed that flower phenology was strongly affected by altitude; however, there were few effects of the manipulative treatments on flowering. The effects of advanced snowmelt were significantly greater at higher than at lower sites, but no significant difference was found between both altitudinal bands for the other treatments. The response of flower phenology to temperature declined through the season and the length of flowering duration was not significantly influenced by treatments. The stronger effect of advanced snowmelt at higher altitudes may be a response to differences in treatment intensity across the gradient. Consequently, shifts in the date of snowmelt due to global warming may affect species more at higher than at lower altitudes, as changes may be more pronounced at higher altitudes. These data indicate a rather low risk of drought events on flowering phenology in the Bavarian Alps.
Major molecular remission (MMR) is an important therapy goal in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). So far, MMR is not a failure criterion according to ELN management recommendation leading to uncertainties when to change therapy in CML patients not reaching MMR after 12 months. At monthly landmarks, for different molecular remission status Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated for patients registered to CML study IV who were divided in a learning and a validation sample. The minimum HR for MMR was found at 2.5 years with 0.28 (compared to patients without remission). In the validation sample, a significant advantage for progression-free survival (PFS) for patients in MMR could be detected (p-value 0.007). The optimal time to predict PFS in patients with MMR could be validated in an independent sample at 2.5 years. With our model we provide a suggestion when to define lack of MMR as therapy failure and thus treatment change should be considered. The optimal response time for 1% BCR-ABL at about 12-15 months was confirmed and for deep molecular remission no specific time point was detected. Nevertheless, it was demonstrated that the earlier the MMR is achieved the higher is the chance to attain deep molecular response later.