@article{DobińskiKneisel2021, author = {Dobiński, Wojciech and Kneisel, Christof}, title = {Permafrost and glaciers: perspectives for the Earth and planetary sciences — another step forward}, series = {Geosciences}, volume = {11}, journal = {Geosciences}, number = {2}, issn = {2076-3263}, doi = {10.3390/geosciences11020068}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-228766}, year = {2021}, abstract = {No abstract available}, language = {en} } @article{HaggMayrMannigetal.2018, author = {Hagg, Wilfried and Mayr, Elisabeth and Mannig, Birgit and Reyers, Mark and Schubert, David and Pinto, Joaquim G. and Peters, Juliane and Pieczonka, Tino and Juen, Martin and Bolch, Tobias and Paeth, Heiko and Mayer, Christoph}, title = {Future climate change and its impact on runoff generation from the debris-covered Inylchek glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan}, series = {Water}, volume = {10}, journal = {Water}, number = {11}, issn = {2073-4441}, doi = {10.3390/w10111513}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-197592}, pages = {1513}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50\% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971-1999/2000) and future (2070/2071-2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43\%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Mutz2013, author = {Mutz, Sebastian}, title = {Dynamic Statistical Modelling of Climate-Related Mass Balance Changes in Norway}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:20-opus-114799}, school = {Universit{\"a}t W{\"u}rzburg}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The glaciers in Norway exert a strong influence on Norwegian economy and society. Unlike many glaciers elsewhere and despite ongoing climate change and warming, many of them showed renewed advances and positive net mass changes in the 1980's and 1990's, followed by rapid retreats and mass losses since 2000. This difference in behaviour may be attributed to differences and shifts in the glaciological regime - the differences in the magnitude of impacts of climatic and non-climatic geographical factors on the glacier mass. This study investigates the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass balance changes of a selection of glaciers in Norway by means of Pearson correlation analyses and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for three time periods (1949-2008, 1949-1988, 1989-2008) separately in order to take into consideration the possible shift in the glaciological regime in the 1980's. The atmospheric variables are constructed from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analysis datasets and include regional means of seasonal air temperature and precipitation rates and atmospheric circulation indices. The multiple regression models trained in these time periods are then applied to predictors reconstructed from the CMIP3 climate model dataset to generate an estimate for mass changes from the year 1950 to 2100. The temporal overlap of estimates and observations is used for calibration. Finally, observed atmospheric states in seasons that are characterised by a particularly positive or negative mass balance are categorised into time periods of modelled climate by the application of a Bayesian classification procedure. The strongest influence on winter mass balance is exerted by different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and precipitation. The correlation coefficients and explained variances determined from the multiple regression analyses reveal an East-West gradient, suggesting a weaker influence of the NAO and NAM on glaciers underlying a more continental regime. The highest correlation coefficients and explained variances were obtained for the 1989-2008 time period, which might be due to a strong and predominantly positive phase of the NAO. Multi-model ensemble means of the estimates show a mass loss for all three eastern glaciers, while the estimates for the more maritime glaciers are ambivalent. In general, the estimates show a greater sensitivity to the training time period than to the greenhouse gas emission scenarios according to which the climates were simulated. The average net mass change by the end of 2100 is negative for all glaciers except for the northern Engabreen. For many glaciers, the Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states into time periods of modelled climate reveals a decrease in probability of atmospheric states favouring extremes in winter, and an increase in probability of atmospheric states favouring extreme mass loss in summer for the distant future (2071-2100). This pattern of probabilities for the ablation season is most pronounced for glaciers underlying a continental and intermediate regime.}, subject = {Norwegen}, language = {en} }