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Sonstige beteiligte Institutionen
- The Italian Federation of Parks and Nature Reserves (3)
- ALPARC - The Alpine Network of Protected Areas (2)
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- Salzburg Institute for Regional Planning and Housing (2)
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- 243964 (1)
- 776019 (1)
- 818182 (1)
- 834709 (1)
- LIFE12 BIO/AT/000143 (1)
- LIFE20 NAT/AT/000049 (1)
Hochaufgelöste Erfassung zukünftiger Klimarisiken für Land- und Forstwirtschaft in Unterfranken
(2024)
Das Klima und seine Veränderungen wirken sich direkt auf die Land- und Forstwirtschaft aus. Daher ist die Untersuchung der zukünftigen Klimarisiken für diese Sektoren von hoher Relevanz. Dies ist auch und vor allem für den schon heute weiträumig trockheitsgeprägten und vom Klimawandel besonders betroffenen nordwestbayerischen Regierungsbezirk Unterfranken der Fall, dessen Gebiet zu über 80 % land- oder forstwirtschaftlich genutzt wird. Zur Untersuchung der Zukunft in hoher räumlicher Auflösung werden Projektionen von regionalen Klimamodellen genutzt. Da diese jedoch Defizite in der Repräsentation des beobachteten Klimas der Vergangenheit aufweisen, sollte vor der weiteren Verwendung eine Anpassung der Daten erfolgen. Dies geschieht in der vorliegenden Arbeit am Beispiel des regionalen Klimamodells REMO im Bezug auf klimatische Kennwerte für Trockenheit, Starkniederschlag, Hitze sowie (Spät-)Frost, die alle eine hohe land- und forstwirtschaftliche Bedeutung besitzen. Die Datenanpassung erfolgt durch zwei verschiedene Ansätze. Zum Einen wird eine Biaskorrektur der aus Globalmodell-angetriebenen REMO-Daten berechneten Indizes durch additive und multiplikative Linearskalierung sowie empirische und parametrische Verteilungsanpassung durchgeführt. Zum Anderen wird ein exploratives Verfahren auf Basis von Model Output Statistics angewandt: Lokale und großräumige atmosphärische Variablen von REMO mit Reanalyseantrieb, die eine zeitliche Korrespondenz zu den Beobachtungen aufweisen, dienen als Prädiktoren für die Aufstellung von Transferfunktionen zur Simulation der Indizes. Diese Transferfunktionen werden sowohl mithilfe Multipler Linearer Regression als auch mit verschiedenen Generalisierten Linearen Modellen konstruiert. Sie werden anschließend genutzt, um Analysen auf Basis von biaskorrigierten Globalmodell-angetriebenen REMO-Prädiktoren durchzuführen. Sowohl für die Biaskorrektur als auch die Model Output Statistics wird eine Kreuzvalidierung durchgeführt, um die Ergebnisse unabhängig vom jeweiligen Trainingszeitraum zu untersuchen und die jeweils besten Varianten zu finden. Werden beide Verfahren mit ihren Unterkategorien für den gesamten historischen Modellzeitraum verglichen, so weist für alle Monat-Kennwert-Kombinationen eine der beiden Verteilungskorrekturen die besten Ergebnisse auf. Die Zukunftsprojektionen unter Verwendung der jeweils erfolgreichsten Methode zeigen im regionalen Durchschnitt für das 21. Jahrhundert negative Trends der (Spät-)Frost- und Eis- sowie positive Trends der Hitzetagehäufigkeit. Winterliche Starkregenereignisse nehmen hinsichtlich ihrer Anzahl zu, im Sommer verstärkt sich die Trockenheit. Die Hinzunahme zwei weiterer regionaler Klimamodelle bestätigt die allgemeinen Zukunftstrends, jedoch ergeben sich beim Spätfrost Widersprüche, wenn dieser hinsichtlich der thermisch abgegrenzten Vegetationsperiode definiert wird.
Zusätzlich werden die Model Output Statistics auf gleiche Weise mit bodennahen Prädiktoren zur Simulation von Erträgen aus Acker- und Weinbau wiederholt. Die Güte kann aufgrund mangelnder Beobachtungsdatenlänge nur anhand der Reanalyse-angetriebenen REMO-Daten abgeschätzt werden, ist hierbei jedoch deutlich besser als im Bezug auf die Kennwertsimulation. Die Zukunftsprojektionen von REMO sowie drei weiterer Regionalmodelle zeigen im Mittel über alle Landkreise Unterfrankens steigende Winter- sowie sinkende Sommerfeldfruchterträge. Hinsichtlich der Frankenweinerträge widersprechen sich die Ergebnisse der drei Klassen Weiß-, Rot- und Gesamtwein insofern, als dass REMO und ein weiteres Modell negative Weiß- und Rotweinertragstrends, jedoch positive Gesamtweinertragstrends simulieren. Die zwei anderen verwendeten Modelle führen durch positive Trendvorzeichen für den Weißwein zu insgesamt kohärenten Ergebnissen.
Die Resultate im Bezug auf die land- und forstwirtschaftlich relevanten klimatischen Kennwerte bedeuten, dass Anpassungsmaßnahmen gegenüber Hitze sowie im Speziellen gegenüber Trockenheit in Zukunft im ohnehin trockenheitsgeprägten Unterfranken an Bedeutung gewinnen werden. Auch die unsicheren Projektionen im Bezug auf die Spätfrostgefahr müssen im Blick behalten werden. Die Trends der Feldfruchterträge deuten in die gleiche Richtung, da Sommergetreide eine höhere Trockenheitsanfälligkeit besitzen. Die unklaren Ergebnisse der Weinerträge hingegen lassen keine eindeutigen Schlüsse zu. Der starke anthropogene Einfluss auf die Erntemengen sowie die großen Unterschiede der Rebsorten hinsichtlich der klimatischen Eignung könnten ein Grund hierfür sein.
Rapid and accurate yield estimates at both field and regional levels remain the goal of sustainable agriculture and food security. Hereby, the identification of consistent and reliable methodologies providing accurate yield predictions is one of the hot topics in agricultural research. This study investigated the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for winter wheat (WW) and oil-seed rape (OSR) using a semi-empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)), Germany, from 2001 to 2019. A synthetic normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series was generated and validated by fusing the high spatial resolution (30 m, 16 days) Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) (2001 to 2012), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2012), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) (2013 to 2019) with the coarse resolution of MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days) from 2001 to 2019. Except for some temporal periods (i.e., 2001, 2002, and 2012), the study obtained an R\(^2\) of more than 0.65 and a RMSE of less than 0.11, which proves that the Landsat 8 OLI fused products are of higher accuracy than the Landsat 5 TM products. Moreover, the accuracies of the NDVI fusion data have been found to correlate with the total number of available Landsat scenes every year (N), with a correlation coefficient (R) of +0.83 (between R\(^2\) of yearly synthetic NDVIs and N) and −0.84 (between RMSEs and N). For crop yield prediction, the synthetic NDVI time series and climate elements (such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, transpiration, and solar radiation) are inputted to the LUE model, resulting in an average R\(^2\) of 0.75 (WW) and 0.73 (OSR), and RMSEs of 4.33 dt/ha and 2.19 dt/ha. The yield prediction results prove the consistency and stability of the LUE model for yield estimation. Using the LUE model, accurate crop yield predictions were obtained for WW (R\(^2\) = 0.88) and OSR (R\(^2\) = 0.74). Lastly, the study observed a high positive correlation of R = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R\(^2\) of synthetic accuracy and modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR, respectively.
On a daily basis, political decisions are made, often with their full extent of impact being unclear. Not seldom, the decisions and policy measures implemented result in direct or indirect unintended negative impacts, such as on the natural environment, which can vary in time, space, nature, and severity. To achieve a more sustainable world with equitable societies requires fundamental rethinking of our policymaking. It calls for informed decision making and a monitoring of political impact for which evidence-based knowledge is necessary. The most powerful tool to derive objective and systematic spatial information and, thus, add to transparent decisions is remote sensing (RS). This review analyses how spaceborne RS is used by the scientific community to provide evidence for the policymaking process. We reviewed 194 scientific publications from 2015 to 2020 and analysed them based on general insights (e.g., study area) and RS application-related information (e.g., RS data and products). Further, we classified the studies according to their degree of science–policy integration by determining their engagement with the political field and their potential contribution towards four stages of the policy cycle: problem identification/knowledge building, policy formulation, policy implementation, and policy monitoring and evaluation. Except for four studies, we found that studies had not directly involved or informed the policy field or policymaking process. Most studies contributed to the stage problem identification/knowledge building, followed by ex post policy impact assessment. To strengthen the use of RS for policy-relevant studies, the concept of the policy cycle is used to showcase opportunities of RS application for the policymaking process. Topics gaining importance and future requirements of RS at the science–policy interface are identified. If tackled, RS can be a powerful complement to provide policy-relevant evidence to shed light on the impact of political decisions and thus help promote sustainable development from the core.
The positive phase of the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) is one of the climatic modes in the subtropical southern Indian Ocean that influences the austral summer inter-annual rainfall variability in parts of southern Africa. This paper examines austral summer rain-bearing circulation types (CTs) in Africa south of the equator that are related to the positive SIOD and the dynamics through which specific rainfall regions in southern Africa can be influenced by this relationship. Four austral summer rain-bearing CTs were obtained. Among the four CTs, the CT that featured (i) enhanced cyclonic activity in the southwest Indian Ocean; (ii) positive widespread rainfall anomaly in the southwest Indian Ocean; and (iii) low-level convergence of moisture fluxes from the tropical South Atlantic Ocean, tropical Indian Ocean, and the southwest Indian Ocean, over the south-central landmass of Africa, was found to be related to the positive SIOD climatic mode. The relationship also implies that positive SIOD can be expected to increase the amplitude and frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned CT. The linkage between the CT related to the positive SIOD and austral summer homogeneous regions of rainfall anomalies in Africa south of the equator showed that it is the principal CT that is related to the inter-annual rainfall variability of the south-central regions of Africa, where the SIOD is already known to significantly influence its rainfall variability. Hence, through the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation associated with the CT, the SIOD can influence the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall over the preferred landmass through enhanced moisture convergence.
The July 2021 heavy rainfall episode in parts of Western Europe caused devastating floods, specifically in Germany. This study examines circulation types (CTs) linked to extreme precipitation in Germany. It was investigated if the classified CTs can highlight the anomaly in synoptic patterns that contributed to the unusual July 2021 heavy rainfall in Germany. The North Atlantic Oscillation was found to be the major climatic mode related to the seasonal and inter-annual variations of most of the classified CTs. On average, wet (dry) conditions in large parts of Germany can be linked to westerly (northerly) moisture fluxes. During spring and summer seasons, the mid-latitude cyclone when located over the North Sea disrupts onshore moisture transport from the North Atlantic Ocean by westerlies driven by the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The CT found to have the highest probability of being associated with above-average rainfall in large part of Germany features (i) enhancement and northward track of the cyclonic system over the Mediterranean; (ii) northward track of the North Atlantic anticyclone, further displacing poleward, the mid-latitude cyclone over the North Sea, enabling band of westerly moisture fluxes to penetrate Germany; (iii) cyclonic system over the Baltic Sea coupled with northeast fluxes of moisture to Germany; (iv) and unstable atmospheric conditions over Germany. In 2021, a spike was detected in the amplitude and frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT suggesting that in addition to the nearly stationary cut-off low over central Europe, during the July flood episode, anomalies in the CT contributed to the heavy rainfall event.
The occurrence of a likely graptolite in lowest Wuliuan strata of the Franconian Forest almost certainly records the oldest known graptolithoid hemichordate in West Gondwana and possibly the oldest graptolite presently known. The fossil is a delicate, erect, apparently unbranched rhabdosome with narrow thecae tentatively assigned to the poorly known genus Ovetograptus of the Dithecodendridae. This report includes an overview of pre-Furongian graptolithoids with slight corrections on the stratigraphic position of earlier reported species.
New U–Pb age and Hf isotope data obtained on detrital zircon grains from Au- and U-bearing Archaean quartz-pebble conglomerates in the Singhbhum Craton, eastern India, specifically the Upper Iron Ore Group in the Badampahar Greenstone Belt and the Phuljhari Formation below the Dhanjori Group provide insights into the zircon provenance and maximum age of sediment deposition. The most concordant, least disturbed \(^{207}\)Pb/\(^{206}\)Pb ages cover the entire range of known magmatic and higher grade metamorphic events in the craton from 3.48 to 3.06 Ga and show a broad maximum between 3.38 and 3.18 Ga. This overlap is also mimicked by Lu–Hf isotope analyses, which returned a wide range in \(_{εHf}\)(t) values from + 6 to − 5, in agreement with the range known from zircon grains in igneous and metamorphic rocks in the Singhbhum Craton. A smaller but distinct age peak centred at 3.06 Ga corresponds to the age of the last major magmatic intrusive event, the emplacement of the Mayurbhanj Granite and associated gabbro, picrite and anorthosite. Thus, these intrusive rocks must form a basement rather than being intrusive into the studied conglomerates as previously interpreted. The corresponding detrital zircon grains all have a subchondritic Hf isotopic composition. The youngest reliable zircon ages of 3.03 Ga in the case of the basal Upper Iron Ore Group in the east of the craton and 3.00 Ga for the Phuljhari Formation set an upper limit on the age of conglomerate sedimentation. Previously published detrital zircon age data from similarly Au-bearing conglomerates in the Mahagiri Quartzite in the Upper Iron Ore Group in the south of the craton gave a somewhat younger maximum age of sedimentation of 2.91 Ga. There, the lower limit on sedimentation is given by an intrusive relationship with a c. 2.8 Ga granite. The time window thus defined for conglomerate deposition on the Singhbhum Craton is almost identical to the age span established for the, in places, Au- and U-rich conglomerates in the Kaapvaal Craton of South Africa: the 2.98–2.78 Ga Dominion Group and Witwatersrand Supergroup in South Africa. Since the recognition of first major concentration of gold on Earth’s surface by microbial activity having taken place at around 2.9 Ga, independent of the nature of the hinterland, the above similarity in age substantially increases the potential for discovering Witwatersrand-type gold and/or uranium deposits on the Singhbhum Craton. Further age constraints are needed there, however, to distinguish between supposedly less fertile (with respect to Au) > 2.9 Ga and more fertile < 2.9 Ga successions.
The effects of drought on tree mortality at forest stands are not completely understood. For assessing their water supply, knowledge of the small-scale distribution of soil moisture as well as its temporal changes is a key issue in an era of climate change. However, traditional methods like taking soil samples or installing data loggers solely collect parameters of a single point or of a small soil volume. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a suitable method for monitoring soil moisture changes and has rarely been used in forests. This method was applied at two forest sites in Bavaria, Germany to obtain high-resolution data of temporal soil moisture variations. Geoelectrical measurements (2D and 3D) were conducted at both sites over several years (2015–2018/2020) and compared with soil moisture data (matric potential or volumetric water content) for the monitoring plots. The greatest variations in resistivity values that highly correlate with soil moisture data were found in the main rooting zone. Using the ERT data, temporal trends could be tracked in several dimensions, such as the interannual increase in the depth of influence from drought events and their duration, as well as rising resistivity values going along with decreasing soil moisture. The results reveal that resistivity changes are a good proxy for seasonal and interannual soil moisture variations. Therefore, 2D- and 3D-ERT are recommended as comparatively non-laborious methods for small-spatial scale monitoring of soil moisture changes in the main rooting zone and the underlying subsurface of forested sites. Higher spatial and temporal resolution allows a better understanding of the water supply for trees, especially in times of drought.
A fuzzy classification scheme that results in physically interpretable meteorological patterns associated with rainfall generation is applied to classify homogeneous regions of boreal summer rainfall anomalies in Germany. Four leading homogeneous regions are classified, representing the western, southeastern, eastern, and northern/northwestern parts of Germany with some overlap in the central parts of Germany. Variations of the sea level pressure gradient across Europe, e.g., between the continental and maritime regions, is the major phenomenon that triggers the time development of the rainfall regions by modulating wind patterns and moisture advection. Two regional climate models (REMO and CCLM4) were used to investigate the capability of climate models to reproduce the observed summer rainfall regions. Both regional climate models (RCMs) were once driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and once by the MPI-ESM general circulation model (GCM). Overall, the RCMs exhibit good performance in terms of the regionalization of summer rainfall in Germany; though the goodness-of-match with the rainfall regions/patterns from observational data is low in some cases and the REMO model driven by MPI-ESM fails to reproduce the western homogeneous rainfall region. Under future climate change, virtually the same leading modes of summer rainfall occur, suggesting that the basic synoptic processes associated with the regional patterns remain the same over Germany. We have also assessed the added value of bias-correcting the MPI-ESM driven RCMs using a simple linear scaling approach. The bias correction does not significantly alter the identification of homogeneous rainfall regions and, hence, does not improve their goodness-of-match compared to the observed patterns, except for the one case where the original RCM output completely fails to reproduce the observed pattern. While the linear scaling method improves the basic statistics of precipitation, it does not improve the simulated meteorological patterns represented by the precipitation regimes.
Cocoa growing is one of the main activities in humid West Africa, which is mainly grown in pure stands. It is the main driver of deforestation and encroachment in protected areas. Cocoa agroforestry systems which have been promoted to mitigate deforestation, needs to be accurately delineated to support a valid monitoring system. Therefore, the aim of this research is to model the spatial distribution of uncertainties in the classification cocoa agroforestry. The study was carried out in Côte d’Ivoire, close to the Taï National Park. The analysis followed three steps (i) image classification based on texture parameters and vegetation indices from Sentinel-1 and -2 data respectively, to train a random forest algorithm. A classified map with the associated probability maps was generated. (ii) Shannon entropy was calculated from the probability maps, to get the error maps at different thresholds (0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5). Then, (iii) the generated error maps were analysed using a Geographically Weighted Regression model to check for spatial autocorrelation. From the results, a producer accuracy (0.88) and a user’s accuracy (0.91) were obtained. A small threshold value overestimates the classification error, while a larger threshold will underestimate it. The optimal value was found to be between 0.3 and 0.4. There was no evidence of spatial autocorrelation except for a smaller threshold (0.2). The approach differentiated cocoa from other landcover and detected encroachment in forest. Even though some information was lost in the process, the method is effective for mapping cocoa plantations in Côte d’Ivoire.