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The worldwide demand for food has been increasing due to the rapidly growing global population, and agricultural lands have increased in extent to produce more food crops. The pattern of cropland varies among different regions depending on the traditional knowledge of farmers and availability of uncultivated land. Satellite images can be used to map cropland in open areas but have limitations for detecting undergrowth inside forests. Classification results are often biased and need to be supplemented with field observations. Undercover cropland inside forests in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia was assessed using field observed percentage cover of land use/land cover classes, and topographic and location parameters. The most influential factors were identified using Boosted Regression Trees and used to map undercover cropland area. Elevation, slope, easterly aspect, distance to settlements, and distance to national park were found to be the most influential factors determining undercover cropland area. When there is very high demand for growing food crops, constrained under restricted rights for clearing forest, cultivation could take place within forests as an undercover. Further research on the impact of undercover cropland on ecosystem services and challenges in sustainable management is thus essential.
I. Timing is a crucial feature in organisms that live within a variable and changing environment. Complex mechanisms to measure time are wide-spread and were shown to exist in many taxa. These mechanisms are expected to provide fitness benefits by enabling organisms to anticipate environmental changes and adapt accordingly. However, very few studies have addressed the adaptive value of proper timing. The objective of this PhD-project was to investigate mechanisms and fitness consequences of timing decisions concerning colony phenology and foraging activity in the honey bee (Apis mellifera), a social insect species with a high degree of social organization and one of the most important pollinators of wild plants and crops. In chapter II, a study is presented that aimed to identify the consequences of disrupted synchrony between colony phenology and the local environment by manipulating the timing of brood onset after hibernation. In a follow-up experiment, the importance of environmental factors for the timing of brood onset was investigated to assess the potential of climate change to disrupt synchronization of colony phenology (Chapter III). Chapter IV aimed to prove for the first time that honey bees can use interval time-place learning to improve foraging activity in a variable environment. Chapter V investigates the fitness benefits of information exchange between nest mates via waggle dance communication about a resource environment that is heterogeneous in space and time.
II. In the study presented in chapter II, the importance of the timing of brood onset after hibernation as critical point in honey bee colony phenology in temperate zones was investigated. Honey bee colonies were overwintered at two climatically different sites. By translocating colonies from each site to the other in late winter, timing of brood onset was manipulated and consequently colony phenology was desynchronized with the local environment. Delaying colony phenology in respect to the local environment decreased the capability of colonies to exploit the abundant spring bloom. Early brood onset, on the other hand, increased the loads of the brood parasite Varroa destructor later in the season with negative impact on colony worker population size. This indicates a timing related trade-off and illustrates the importance of investigating effects of climate change on complex multi-trophic systems. It can be concluded that timing of brood onset in honey bees is an important fitness relevant step for colony phenology that is highly sensitive to climatic conditions in late winter. Further, phenology shifts and mismatches driven by climate change can have severe fitness consequences.
III. In chapter III, I assess the importance of the environmental factors ambient temperature and photoperiod as well as elapsed time on the timing of brood onset. Twenty-four hibernating honey bee colonies were placed into environmental chambers and allocated to different combinations of two temperature regimes and three different light regimes. Brood onset was identified non-invasively by tracking comb temperature within the winter cluster. The experiment revealed that ambient temperature plays a major role in the timing of brood onset, but the response of honey bee colonies to temperature increases is modified by photoperiod. Further, the data indicate the involvement of an internal clock. I conclude that the timing of brood onset is complex but probably highly susceptible to climate change and especially spells of warm weather in winter.
IV. In chapter IV, it was examined if honey bees are capable of interval time-place learning and if this ability improves foraging efficiency in a dynamic resource environment. In a field experiment with artificial feeders, foragers were able to learn time intervals and use this ability to anticipate time periods during which feeders were active. Further, interval time-place learning enabled foragers to increase nectar uptake rates. It was concluded that interval time-place learning can help honey bee foragers to adapt to the complex and variable temporal patterns of floral resource environments.
V. The study presented in chapter V identified the importance of the honey bee waggle dance communication for the spatiotemporal coordination of honey bee foraging activity in resource environments that can vary from day to day. Consequences of disrupting the instructional component of honey bee dance communication were investigated in eight temperate zone landscapes with different levels of spatiotemporal complexity. While nectar uptake of colonies was not affected, waggle dance communication significantly benefitted pollen harvest irrespective of landscape complexity. I suggest that this is explained by the fact that honey bees prefer to forage pollen in semi-natural habitats, which provide diverse resource species but are sparse and presumably hard to find in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. I conclude that waggle dance communication helps to ensure a sufficient and diverse pollen diet which is crucial for honey bee colony health.
VI. In my PhD-project, I could show that honey bee colonies are able to adapt their activities to a seasonally and daily changing environment, which affects resource uptake, colony development, colony health and ultimately colony fitness. Ongoing global change, however, puts timing in honey bee colonies at risk. Climate change has the potential to cause mismatches with the local resource environment. Intensivation of agricultural management with decreased resource diversity and short resource peaks in spring followed by distinctive gaps increases the probability of mismatches. Even the highly efficient foraging system of honey bees might not ensure a sufficiently diverse and healthy diet in such an environment. The global introduction of the parasitic mite V. destructor and the increased exposure to pesticides in intensively managed landscapes further degrades honey bee colony health. This might lead to reduced cognitive capabilities in workers and impact the communication and social organization in colonies, thereby undermining the ability of honey bee colonies to adapt to their environment.
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC) data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC), MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC) database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i) the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii) a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.
BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model.
METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate.
RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.
Central Europe experienced several droughts in the recent past, such as in the year 2018, which was characterized by extremely low rainfall rates and high temperatures, resulting in substantial agricultural yield losses. Time series of satellite earth observation data enable the characterization of past drought events over large temporal and spatial scales. Within this study, Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (MOD13Q1) 250 m time series were investigated for the vegetation periods of 2000 to 2018. The spatial and temporal development of vegetation in 2018 was compared to other dry and hot years in Europe, like the drought year 2003. Temporal and spatial inter- and intra-annual patterns of EVI anomalies were analyzed for all of Germany and for its cropland, forest, and grassland areas individually. While vegetation development in spring 2018 was above average, the summer months of 2018 showed negative anomalies in a similar magnitude as in 2003, which was particularly apparent within grassland and cropland areas in Germany. In contrast, the year 2003 showed negative anomalies during the entire growing season. The spatial pattern of vegetation status in 2018 showed high regional variation, with north-eastern Germany mainly affected in June, north-western parts in July, and western Germany in August. The temporal pattern of satellite-derived EVI deviances within the study period 2000-2018 were in good agreement with crop yield statistics for Germany. The study shows that the EVI deviation of the summer months of 2018 were among the most extreme in the study period compared to other years. The spatial pattern and temporal development of vegetation condition between the drought years differ.
The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET
(2012)
During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.
Temporal development of communities with a focus on insects, in time series of one to four decades
(2021)
Changes and development are fundamental principles in biocenoses and can affect a multitude of ecological processes. In insect communities phenological and density changes, changes in species richness and community composition, as well as interactions between those changes, are the most important macro processes. However, climate change and other factors like habitat degradation and loss alter these processes leading to shifts and general biodiversity declines. Even though knowledge about insect decline in central Europe increased during the last decades, there are significant knowledge gaps about the development of insect communities in certain habitats and taxa. For example, insect communities in small lentic as well as in forested habitats are under-sampled and reported to be less endangered than communities in other habitats. Furthermore, the changes within habitats and taxa are additionally influenced by certain traits, like host or feeding specialization. To disentangle these influences and to increase the knowledge about the general long-term development of insect communities, comprehensive long-term monitoring studies are needed. In addition, long-term effects of conservation strategies should also be evaluated on large time scales in order to be able to decide on a scientific base which strategies are effective in promoting possibly declining taxa. Hence, this thesis also tackles the effects of an integrative conservation strategy on wood dependent beetle and fungi, beside the development of water beetle and macro moth communities over multiple decades. In Chapter 2 I present a study on the development of water beetle communities (Dytiscidae, Haliplidae, Noteridae) in 33 water bodies in Southern Germany from 1991 to 2018. Time-standardized capture per waterbody was used during three periods: between 1991 and 1995, 2007 and 2008, and 2017 and 2018. Results showed annual declines in both species number (ca. -1%) and abundance (ca. -2%). In addition, community composition shifted over time in part due to changing pH values. Hence, the recorded changes during the 28-year study period partly reflect natural succession processes. However, since also moor-related beetle species decreased significantly, it is likely that water beetles in southern Germany are also threatened by non-successional factors, including desiccation, increased nitrogen input and/or mineralization, as well as the loss of specific habitats. The results suggest, that in small to midsize lentic waterbodies, current development should aim for constant creation of new water bodies and protection of moor waterbodies in order to protect water beetle communities on a landscape scale. In Chapter 3 I present an analysis of the development of nocturnal macro moth species richness, abundance and biomass over four decades in forests of southern Germany. Two local scale data sets featuring a coppiced oak forest as well as an oak high forest were analysed separately from a regional data set representing all forest types in the temperate zone of Central Europe. At the regional scale species richness, abundance and biomass showed annual declines of ca. 1 %, 1.3 % and 1.4 %, respectively. These declines were more pronounced in plant host specialists and in dark coloured species. In contrast, species richness increased by ca. 1.5 % annually in the coppiced forest, while no significant trends were found in the high forest. In contrast to past assumptions, insect decline apparently affects also hyper diverse insect groups in forests. Since host specialists and dark coloured species were affected more heavily by the decline than other groups, habitat loss and climate change seem to be potential drivers of the observed trends. However, the positive development of species richness in the coppiced oak forest indicates that maintaining complex and diverse forest ecosystems through active management might compensate for negative trends in biodiversity. Chapter 4 features a study specifically aiming to investigate the long-term effect of deadwood enrichment as an integrative conservation strategy on saproxylic beetles and fungi in a central European beech forest at a landscape scale. A before–after control–impact design, was used to compare assemblages and gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms (beetles and fungi) in strictly protected old-growth forest areas (reserves) and previously moderately and intensively managed forest areas. Forests were sampled one year before and a decade after starting a landscape-wide strategy of dead-wood enrichment. Ten years after the start of the dead-wood enrichment, neither gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms nor species composition of beetles did reflect the previous management types anymore. However, fungal species composition still mirrored the previous management gradient. The results demonstrated that intentional enrichment of dead wood at the landscape scale can effectively restore communities of saproxylic organisms and may thus be a suitable strategy in addition to permanent strict reserves in order to protect wood dependent organisms in Europe. In this thesis I showed, that in contrast to what was assumed and partly reported so far, also water beetles in lentic water bodies and macro moths in forests decreased in species richness, abundance and biomass during the last three to four decades. In line with earlier studies, especially dark coloured species and specialists decreased more than light-coloured species and generalists. The reasons for these declines could partly be attributed to natural processes and pollution and possibly to climate change. However, further studies, especially experimental ones, will be needed to achieve a better understanding of the reasons for insect decline. Furthermore, analyses of time series data should be interpreted cautiously especially if the number of sampling years is smaller than ten years. In addition, validation techniques such as left- and right- censoring and cross validation should be used in order to proof the robustness of the analyses. However, the lack of knowledge, we are still facing today, should not prevent scientists and practitioners from applying conservation measures. In order to prove the effectiveness of such measures, long-term monitoring is crucial. Such control of success is essential for evidence based and thus adapted conservation strategies of threatened organisms.
Specialization of plant-pollinator interactions increases with temperature at Mt. Kilimanjaro
(2020)
Aim: Species differ in their degree of specialization when interacting with other species, with significant consequences for the function and robustness of ecosystems. In order to better estimate such consequences, we need to improve our understanding of the spatial patterns and drivers of specialization in interaction networks.
Methods: Here, we used the extensive environmental gradient of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, East Africa) to study patterns and drivers of specialization, and robustness of plant–pollinator interactions against simulated species extinction with standardized sampling methods. We studied specialization, network robustness and other network indices of 67 quantitative plant–pollinator networks consisting of 268 observational hours and 4,380 plant–pollinator interactions along a 3.4 km elevational gradient. Using path analysis, we tested whether resource availability, pollinator richness, visitation rates, temperature, and/or area explain average specialization in pollinator communities. We further linked pollinator specialization to different pollinator taxa, and species traits, that is, proboscis length, body size, and species elevational ranges.
Results: We found that specialization decreased with increasing elevation at different levels of biological organization. Among all variables, mean annual temperature was the best predictor of average specialization in pollinator communities. Specialization differed between pollinator taxa, but was not related to pollinator traits. Network robustness against simulated species extinctions of both plants and pollinators was lowest in the most specialized interaction networks, that is, in the lowlands.
Conclusions: Our study uncovers patterns in plant–pollinator specialization along elevational gradients. Mean annual temperature was closely linked to pollinator specialization. Energetic constraints, caused by short activity timeframes in cold highlands, may force ectothermic species to broaden their dietary spectrum. Alternatively or in addition, accelerated evolutionary rates might facilitate the establishment of specialization under warm climates. Despite the mechanisms behind the patterns have yet to be fully resolved, our data suggest that temperature shifts in the course of climate change may destabilize pollination networks by affecting network architecture.
Aim
Global warming is assumed to restructure mountain insect communities in space and time. Theory and observations along climate gradients predict that insect abundance and richness, especially of small‐bodied species, will increase with increasing temperature. However, the specific responses of single species to rising temperatures, such as spatial range shifts, also alter communities, calling for intensive monitoring of real‐world communities over time.
Location
German Alps and pre‐alpine forests in south‐east Germany.
Methods
We empirically examined the temporal and spatial change in wild bee communities and its drivers along two largely well‐protected elevational gradients (alpine grassland vs. pre‐alpine forest), each sampled twice within the last decade.
Results
We detected clear abundance‐based upward shifts in bee communities, particularly in cold‐adapted bumble bee species, demonstrating the speed with which mobile organisms can respond to climatic changes. Mean annual temperature was identified as the main driver of species richness in both regions. Accordingly, and in large overlap with expectations under climate warming, we detected an increase in bee richness and abundance, and an increase in small‐bodied species in low‐ and mid‐elevations along the grassland gradient. Community responses in the pre‐alpine forest gradient were only partly consistent with community responses in alpine grasslands.
Main Conclusion
In well‐protected temperate mountain regions, small‐bodied bees may initially profit from warming temperatures, by getting more abundant and diverse. Less severe warming, and differences in habitat openness along the forested gradient, however, might moderate species responses. Our study further highlights the utility of standardized abundance data for revealing rapid changes in bee communities over only one decade.
Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.