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Background
The prevalence of food allergy (FA) among European school children is poorly defined. Estimates have commonly been based on parent‐reported symptoms. We aimed to estimate the frequency of FA and sensitization against food allergens in primary school children in eight European countries.
Methods
A follow‐up assessment at age 6‐10 years of a multicentre European birth cohort based was undertaken using an online parental questionnaire, clinical visits including structured interviews and skin prick tests (SPT). Children with suspected FA were scheduled for double‐blind, placebo‐controlled oral food challenges (DBPCFC).
Results
A total of 6105 children participated in this school‐age follow‐up (57.8% of 10 563 recruited at birth). For 982 of 6069 children (16.2%), parents reported adverse reactions after food consumption in the online questionnaire. Of 2288 children with parental face‐to‐face interviews and/or skin prick testing, 238 (10.4%) were eligible for a DBPCFC. Sixty‐three foods were challenge‐tested in 46 children. Twenty food challenges were positive in 17 children, including seven to hazelnut and three to peanut. Another seventy‐one children were estimated to suffer FA among those who were eligible but refused DBPCFC. This yielded prevalence estimates for FA in school age between 1.4% (88 related to all 6105 participants of this follow‐up) and 3.8% (88 related to 2289 with completed eligibility assessment).
Interpretation
In primary school children in eight European countries, the prevalence of FA was lower than expected even though parents of this cohort have become especially aware of allergic reactions to food. There was moderate variation between centres hampering valid regional comparisons.
Background: A novel non-invasive asthma prediction tool from the Leicester Cohort, UK, forecasts asthma at age 8 years based on 10 predictors assessed in early childhood, including current respiratory symptoms, eczema, and parental history of asthma.
Objective: We aimed to externally validate the proposed asthma prediction method in a German birth cohort.
Methods: The MAS-90 study (Multicentre Allergy Study) recorded details on allergic diseases prospectively in about yearly follow-up assessments up to age 20 years in a cohort of 1,314 children born 1990. We replicated the scoring method from the Leicester cohort and assessed prediction, performance and discrimination. The primary outcome was defined as the combination of parent-reported wheeze and asthma drugs (both in last 12 months) at age 8. Sensitivity analyses assessed model performance for outcomes related to asthma up to age 20 years. Results: For 140 children parents reported current wheeze or cough at age 3 years. Score distribution and frequencies of later asthma resembled the Leicester cohort: 9% vs. 16% (MAS-90 vs. Leicester) of children at low risk at 3 years had asthma at 8 years, at medium risk 45% vs. 48%. Performance of the asthma prediction tool in the MAS-90 cohort was similar (Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.23) and discrimination slightly better than in the original cohort (area under the curve, AUC 0.83 vs. 0.78). Prediction and discrimination were robust against changes of inclusion criteria, scoring and outcome definitions. The secondary outcome 'physicians' diagnosed asthma at 20 years' showed the highest discrimination (AUC 0.89).
Conclusion: The novel asthma prediction tool from the Leicester cohort, UK, performed well in another population, a German birth cohort, supporting its use and further development as a simple aid to predict asthma risk in clinical settings.