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Forecasting spatio-temporal dynamics on the land surface using Earth Observation data — a review
(2020)
Reliable forecasts on the impacts of global change on the land surface are vital to inform the actions of policy and decision makers to mitigate consequences and secure livelihoods. Geospatial Earth Observation (EO) data from remote sensing satellites has been collected continuously for 40 years and has the potential to facilitate the spatio-temporal forecasting of land surface dynamics. In this review we compiled 143 papers on EO-based forecasting of all aspects of the land surface published in 16 high-ranking remote sensing journals within the past decade. We analyzed the literature regarding research focus, the spatial scope of the study, the forecasting method applied, as well as the temporal and technical properties of the input data. We categorized the identified forecasting methods according to their temporal forecasting mechanism and the type of input data. Time-lagged regressions which are predominantly used for crop yield forecasting and approaches based on Markov Chains for future land use and land cover simulation are the most established methods. The use of external climate projections allows the forecasting of numerical land surface parameters up to one hundred years into the future, while auto-regressive time series modeling can account for intra-annual variances. Machine learning methods have been increasingly used in all categories and multivariate modeling that integrates multiple data sources appears to be more popular than univariate auto-regressive modeling despite the availability of continuously expanding time series data. Regardless of the method, reliable EO-based forecasting requires high-level remote sensing data products and the resulting computational demand appears to be the main reason that most forecasts are conducted only on a local scale. In the upcoming years, however, we expect this to change with further advances in the field of machine learning, the publication of new global datasets, and the further establishment of cloud computing for data processing.
In the past decades, various Earth observation-based time series products have emerged, which have enabled studies and analysis of global change processes. Besides their contribution to understanding past processes, time series datasets hold enormous potential for predictive modeling and thereby meet the demands of decision makers on future scenarios. In order to further exploit these data, a novel pixel-based approach has been introduced, which is the spatio-temporal matrix (STM). The approach integrates the historical characteristics of a specific land cover at a high temporal frequency in order to interpret the spatial and temporal information for the neighborhood of a given target pixel. The provided information can be exploited with common predictive models and algorithms. In this study, this approach was utilized and evaluated for the prediction of future urban/built-settlement growth. Random forest and multi-layer perceptron were employed for the prediction. The tests have been carried out with training strategies based on a one-year and a ten-year time span for the urban agglomerations of Surat (India), Ho-Chi-Minh City (Vietnam), and Abidjan (Ivory Coast). The slope, land use, exclusion, urban, transportation, hillshade (SLEUTH) model was selected as a baseline indicator for the performance evaluation. The statistical results from the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) demonstrate a good ability of the STM to facilitate the prediction of future settlement growth and its transferability to different cities, with area under the curve (AUC) values greater than 0.85. Compared with SLEUTH, the STM-based model achieved higher AUC in all of the test cases, while being independent of the additional datasets for the restricted and the preferential development areas.