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We investigate the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM) in the light of constraining experimental and observational data from precision measurements, astrophysics, direct supersymmetry searches at the LHC and measurements of the properties of the Higgs boson, by means of a global fit using the program Fittino. As in previous studies, we find rather poor agreement of the best fit point with the global data. We also investigate the stability of the electro-weak vacuum in the preferred region of parameter space around the best fit point. We find that the vacuum is metastable, with a lifetime significantly longer than the age of the Universe. For the first time in a global fit of supersymmetry, we employ a consistent methodology to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the cMSSM in a frequentist approach by deriving p values from large sets of toy experiments. We analyse analytically and quantitatively the impact of the choice of the observable set on the p value, and in particular its dilution when confronting the model with a large number of barely constraining measurements. Finally, for the preferred sets of observables, we obtain p values for the cMSSM below 10 %, i.e. we exclude the cMSSM as a model at the 90 % confidence level.

Background and purpose Impaired kidney function is associated with an increased risk of vascular events in acute stroke patients, when assessed by single measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). It is unknown whether repeated measurements provide additional information for risk prediction. Methods The MonDAFIS (Systematic Monitoring for Detection of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke) study randomly assigned 3465 acute ischemic stroke patients to either standard procedures or an additive Holter electrocardiogram. Baseline eGFR (CKD‐EPI formula) were dichotomized into values of < versus ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m\(^{2}\). eGFR dynamics were classified based on two in‐hospital values as “stable normal” (≥60 ml/min/1.73 m\(^{2}\)), “increasing” (by at least 15% from baseline, second value ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m\(^{2}\)), “decreasing” (by at least 15% from baseline of ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m\(^{2}\)), and “stable decreased” (<60 ml/min/1.73 m\(^{2}\)). The composite endpoint (stroke, major bleeding, myocardial infarction, all‐cause death) was assessed after 24 months. We estimated hazard ratios in confounder‐adjusted models. Results Estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline was available in 2947 and a second value in 1623 patients. After adjusting for age, stroke severity, cardiovascular risk factors, and randomization, eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m\(^{2}\) at baseline (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.40–3.54) as well as decreasing (HR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.07–2.99) and stable decreased eGFR (HR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.20–2.24) were independently associated with the composite endpoint. In addition, eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.732 at baseline (HR = 3.02, 95% CI = 1.51–6.10) and decreasing eGFR were associated with all‐cause death (HR = 3.12, 95% CI = 1.63–5.98). Conclusions In addition to patients with low eGFR levels at baseline, also those with decreasing eGFR have increased risk for vascular events and death; hence, repeated estimates of eGFR might add relevant information to risk prediction.