Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology
Refine
Has Fulltext
- yes (4)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (4)
Document Type
- Journal article (4)
Language
- English (4)
Keywords
- Germany (1)
- Taita Hills (1)
- Water Framework Directive (1)
- Zosterops silvanus (1)
- aquatic plants (1)
- biodiversity gradients (1)
- biodiversity hypotheses (1)
- community trait analysis (1)
- deep lakes (1)
- ecological modelling (1)
- evolutionary rescue (1)
- habitat change (1)
- individual-based modelling (1)
- individual-based models (1)
- individual‐based model (1)
- introgressive hybridization (1)
- island plant communities (1)
- model complexity (1)
- propagule pressure (1)
- research software engineering (1)
- software complexity (1)
- software development (1)
- species invasions (1)
Institute
Individual-based models are doubly complex: as well as representing complex ecological systems, the software that implements them is complex in itself. Both forms of complexity must be managed to create reliable models. However, the ecological modelling literature to date has focussed almost exclusively on the biological complexity. Here, we discuss methods for containing software complexity.
Strategies for containing complexity include avoiding, subdividing, documenting and reviewing it. Computer science has long-established techniques for all of these strategies. We present some of these techniques and set them in the context of IBM development, giving examples from published models.
Techniques for avoiding software complexity are following best practices for coding style, choosing suitable programming languages and file formats and setting up an automated workflow. Complex software systems can be made more tractable by encapsulating individual subsystems. Good documentation needs to take into account the perspectives of scientists, users and developers. Code reviews are an effective way to check for errors, and can be used together with manual or automated unit and integration tests.
Ecological modellers can learn from computer scientists how to deal with complex software systems. Many techniques are readily available, but must be disseminated among modellers. There is a need for further work to adapt software development techniques to the requirements of academic research groups and individual-based modelling.
Investigating diversity gradients helps to understand biodiversity drivers and threats. However, one diversity gradient is rarely assessed, namely how plant species distribute along the depth gradient of lakes. Here, we provide the first comprehensive characterization of depth diversity gradient (DDG) of alpha, beta, and gamma species richness of submerged macrophytes across multiple lakes. We characterize the DDG for additive richness components (alpha, beta, gamma), assess environmental drivers, and address temporal change over recent years. We take advantage of yet the largest dataset of macrophyte occurrence along lake depth (274 depth transects across 28 deep lakes) as well as of physiochemical measurements (12 deep lakes from 2006 to 2017 across Bavaria), provided publicly online by the Bavarian State Office for the Environment. We found a high variability in DDG shapes across the study lakes. The DDGs for alpha and gamma richness are predominantly hump-shaped, while beta richness shows a decreasing DDG. Generalized additive mixed-effect models indicate that the depth of the maximum richness (Dmax) is influenced by light quality, light quantity, and layering depth, whereas the respective maximum alpha richness within the depth gradient (Rmax) is significantly influenced by lake area only. Most observed DDGs seem generally stable over recent years. However, for single lakes we found significant linear trends for Rmax and Dmax going into different directions. The observed hump-shaped DDGs agree with three competing hypotheses: the mid-domain effect, the mean–disturbance hypothesis, and the mean–productivity hypothesis. The DDG amplitude seems driven by lake area (thus following known species–area relationships), whereas skewness depends on physiochemical factors, mainly water transparency and layering depth. Our results provide insights for conservation strategies and for mechanistic frameworks to disentangle competing explanatory hypotheses for the DDG.
Abstract
Introgressive hybridization is a process that enables gene flow across species barriers through the backcrossing of hybrids into a parent population. This may make genetic material, potentially including relevant environmental adaptations, rapidly available in a gene pool. Consequently, it has been postulated to be an important mechanism for enabling evolutionary rescue, that is the recovery of threatened populations through rapid evolutionary adaptation to novel environments. However, predicting the likelihood of such evolutionary rescue for individual species remains challenging. Here, we use the example of Zosterops silvanus, an endangered East African highland bird species suffering from severe habitat loss and fragmentation, to investigate whether hybridization with its congener Zosterops flavilateralis might enable evolutionary rescue of its Taita Hills population. To do so, we employ an empirically parameterized individual‐based model to simulate the species' behaviour, physiology and genetics. We test the population's response to different assumptions of mating behaviour and multiple scenarios of habitat change. We show that as long as hybridization does take place, evolutionary rescue of Z. silvanus is likely. Intermediate hybridization rates enable the greatest long‐term population growth, due to trade‐offs between adaptive and maladaptive introgressed alleles. Habitat change did not have a strong effect on population growth rates, as Z. silvanus is a strong disperser and landscape configuration is therefore not the limiting factor for hybridization. Our results show that targeted gene flow may be a promising avenue to help accelerate the adaptation of endangered species to novel environments, and demonstrate how to combine empirical research and mechanistic modelling to deliver species‐specific predictions for conservation planning.
Propagule pressure and an invasion syndrome determine invasion success in a plant community model
(2021)
The success of species invasions depends on multiple factors, including propagule pressure, disturbance, productivity, and the traits of native and non-native species. While the importance of many of these determinants has already been investigated in relative isolation, they are rarely studied in combination. Here, we address this shortcoming by exploring the effect of the above-listed factors on the success of invasions using an individual-based mechanistic model. This approach enables us to explicitly control environmental factors (temperature as surrogate for productivity, disturbance, and propagule pressure) as well as to monitor whole-community trait distributions of environmental adaptation, mass, and dispersal abilities. We simulated introductions of plant individuals to an oceanic island to assess which factors and species traits contribute to invasion success. We found that the most influential factors were higher propagule pressure and a particular set of traits. This invasion trait syndrome was characterized by a relative similarity in functional traits of invasive to native species, while invasive species had on average higher environmental adaptation, higher body mass, and increased dispersal distances, that is, had greater competitive and dispersive abilities. Our results highlight the importance in management practice of reducing the import of alien species, especially those that display this trait syndrome and come from similar habitats as those being managed.