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West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its welldocumented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system.
In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and landsurface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.
Estimating flood risks and managing disasters combines knowledge in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, statistics, planning and geography - thus a complex multi-faceted problem. This study focuses on the capabilities of multi-source remote sensing data to support decision-making before, during and after a flood event. With our focus on urbanized areas, sample methods and applications show multi-scale products from the hazard and vulnerability perspective of the risk framework. From the hazard side, we present capabilities with which to assess flood-prone areas before an expected disaster. Then we map the spatial impact during or after a flood and finally, we analyze damage grades after a flood disaster. From the vulnerability side, we monitor urbanization over time on an urban footprint level, classify urban structures on an individual building level, assess building stability and quantify probably affected people. The results show a large database for sustainable development and for developing mitigation strategies, ad-hoc coordination of relief measures and organizing rehabilitation.