Werner K. Lutz, J. Schlatter

• The intake of known dietary carclnogens was compiled and the cancer risk was estlmated on the basis of carcinogenic potencies in animals as derived from the Carcinogenic Potency Database by Gold and co-workers. The total cancer risk was compared with the number of cancer cases attributed by epidemiologists to dietary factors (one-third of all cancer cases, i.e. -80 000 per one million Jives). Except for alcohol, the known dietary carcinogens could not account for more than a few bundred cancer cases. Tbis was seen both with tbe DNA-reactiveThe intake of known dietary carclnogens was compiled and the cancer risk was estlmated on the basis of carcinogenic potencies in animals as derived from the Carcinogenic Potency Database by Gold and co-workers. The total cancer risk was compared with the number of cancer cases attributed by epidemiologists to dietary factors (one-third of all cancer cases, i.e. -80 000 per one million Jives). Except for alcohol, the known dietary carcinogens could not account for more than a few bundred cancer cases. Tbis was seen both with tbe DNA-reactive carcinogens (beterocyclic aromatic amines, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, N-nitroso compounds, estragole, aflatoxin B., ethyl carbamate, to name the most important factors) as wen as with those carclnogens wbich have not been shown to react with DNA (e.g. caffelc acid and the carcinogeruc metals arsenic and cadmium). Residues and contaminants turned out to be negligible. Among the various pmsibilities to explain the discrepancy we investigated the roJe of ovemutritlon. Dietary restriction in animals is weil known for its strong reducing effect on spontaneous tumor formation. These data can be used to derive a carcinogenic potency for excess macronutrients: tbe tumor incidence seen with the restrlcted animals is taken as a control value and the increased tumor incidence in the animals fed ad libitum is attributed to the additional feed iotake. For excess standard diet in rats, a carcinogenic potency TD50 of 16 glkg/day was deduced from a recent study. Ovemutrition in Switzerland, estimated to be 5.5 kcallkg/day, was converted to excess food (1.9 g/kg/day) and tbe cancer incidence was calculated. The result, 60 000 cancer cases per one million Jives, is provocatively close to the number of cases not explained by the known dietary chemical carcinogens. Mechanistic studies will be required to test our hypothesis and investigate the role of different types of macronutrients in ovemutrition.…