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This study aimed to optimise the application, efficiency and interpretability of quasi-3D resistivity imaging for investigating the heterogeneous permafrost distribution at mountain sites by a systematic forward modelling approach. A three dimensional geocryologic model, representative for most mountain permafrost settings, was developed. Based on this geocryologic model quasi-3D models were generated by collating synthetic orthogonal 2D arrays, demonstrating the effects of array types and electrode spacing on resolution and interpretability of the inversion results. The effects of minimising the number of 2D arrays per quasi-3D grid were tested by enlarging the spacing between adjacent lines and by reducing the number of perpendicular tie lines with regard to model resolution and loss of information value. Synthetic and measured quasi-3D models were investigated with regard to the lateral and vertical resolution, reliability of inverted resistivity values, the possibility of a quantitative interpretation of resistivities and the response of the inversion process on the validity of quasi-3D models. Results show that setups using orthogonal 2D arrays with electrode spacings of 2 m and 3 m are capable of delineating lateral heterogeneity with high accuracy and also deliver reliable data on active layer thickness. Detection of permafrost thickness, especially if the permafrost base is close to the penetration depth of the setups, and the reliability of absolute resistivity values emerged to be a weakness of the method. Quasi-3D imaging has proven to be a promising tool for investigating permafrost in mountain environments especially for delineating the often small-scale permafrost heterogeneity, and therefore provides an enhanced possibility for aligning permafrost distribution with site specific surface properties and morphological settings.
11 Conclusion
11.1 Glaze compositions
Glazes from tiles of imposing Islamic buildings and some tableware glazes of the medieval epoch in Central Asia, the Middle East, Asia Minor, and North Africa are analysed regarding their main composition and colouring agents. Three major production recipes can be distinguished, i.e. alkali glazes, alkali lead glazes, and lead glazes. In the work of Tite (2011), Islamic glazes from Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are subdivided into four groups of composition, being partly consistent with those of this work. The alkali lime glazes with <2 wt% PbO correspond to the alkali glazes, but with higher content of CaO. The second and third group of low lead alkali and lead alkali glazes (2-10 wt% PbO and 10-35 wt% PbO) can be subsumed to the alkali lead group described here. Tite´s high lead group has PbO contents >35 wt% and is comparable to the lead glazes (>30 wt% PbO) of this study. The lead and the alkali oxides serve as a flux for the lowering the melting point.
In the interaction of ceramic body and glaze, primarily an influence from Si, Al, and K is observed in the line scans from the cross section of ceramic and glaze. However, the input of ceramic material doesn’t seem to be critical for the classification of glazes according to their alkali and alkali lead compositions.
In every epoch and locality, except of the Ilkhanate dynasty in Iran, lead glaze samples can be verified. This is also observed in previous investigations e.g. from medieval Iraq, Jordan and Iran (McCarthy, 1996; Al-Saad, 2002; Holakooei et al., 2014). In the Moroccan and Bulgarian glazes, lead seems to be the only important flux. In part, the lead flux is supplemented by additional alkali contents. The lack of alkali and alkali lead glazes in Bulgarian and Moroccan glazes (assuming that the Ottoman alkali lead glazes are imported tableware) seems to affect the regions with Roman-influenced history and with geographical distance to the Near East alkali flux tradition.
For the alkali lead glazes and alkali glazes, the overall characteristic is sodium dominated, although the absolute soda values are in part surprisingly low. Samples from Bukhara, Takht-i-Suleiman and the Turkish localities have the highest, but still moderate Na2O values up to 15 wt%, compared to other analyses from e.g. India (Gill & Rehren, 2011).
The source of the alkali flux is either mineral natron or plant ash. The source can be determined regarding the MgO values, limited to 1.3 wt% in mineral natron and exceeding 2.0 wt% in the case of plant ashes. In the samples of the present study, the K2O component is not suitable for the indication of the flux-relevant alkali source due to its broad scattering. The P2O5 contents are also enhanced in the plant ash compositions but the data set is not sufficient for statistical evaluation. An influence of the ceramic body on the glaze composition is observed only for SiO2, Al2O3, and K2O in quartz frit ceramics with slight K-feldspar content.
The earliest Uzbek tableware glazes from the 10th-11th century (Seljuq period) were generally produced using a lead flux. The same applies to part of the Uzbek tile glazes which were produced between the 13th and 16th century. In Iran, glazes from the 12th century (Khwarezmid period) are lead glazes, but also alkali-fluxed glazes with mineral natron characteristics can be found. Although the production of lead-rich glazes was established from the 8th-9th century on in Iraq, Syria, and Egypt (Henshaw, 2010; Tite et al., 2011), alkali glazes are found in almost all regions except of Bulgaria and Morocco.
Plant ash-fluxed alkali glazes are found in 13th century glazes from Takht-i-Suleiman. The plant ash flux technology is assumed to be continuously used in Mesopotamia, Iran, and Central Asia (Sayre & Smith, 1974; Henderson, 2009), but it could be shown that a parallel use of mineral natron parallel existed in the alkali glaze production from the 12th-15th century from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan. Mineral natron characteristics are also reported by Mason (2004) for Syrian and Iranian alkali glazes on lustre ware of the 8th-14th century. Tile glazes with partly mineral natron compositions are found in the Mughal architectural glazes from the 14th- 17th century from India (Gill et al., 2014).
Alkali and alkali lead tile glazes from Samarkand from the 13th century (Mongolian period) have mineral natron flux characteristics, but samples from the 15th century (Timurid period) show plant ash signature. Alkali fluxed Uzbek glazes from Bukhara from the 16th century (Sheibanid dynasty) are also made by plant ash flux and are subdivided into two groups with high and low sodium oxide content. The Afghan alkali glazes have sodium oxide contents similar to the sodium-poor Uzbek subgroup, which points to a possible exchange of glaze makers or glaze making technology from Uzbekistan and Afghanistan in the 15th-17th century. Regarding the extensive exchange of Timurid craftsmen in Central Asia, this option seems to be even more likely (Golombek, 1996). One sample from the 15th century from Afghanistan with mineral natron reveals that this material was parallel used in these centuries.
Concerning the colouring of the glazes, it has to be distinguished between pigments and colouring ions which are incorporated in the glassy matrix. The colouring agents for translucent glazes are cations of various transition metals. As ions, Co2+ (blue), Cu2+ (green in a lead rich matrix), Fe3+ (brown/black), Mn4+ (brown/black) and Mn3+ (violet) are determined by EPMA. For opaque yellow, white, and turquoise glazes, different pigments were used. The crystalline pigments are investigated by a µ XRD2 device with the result of SnO2, SiO2, and PbSiO4 as whitening agents. PbSiO4 and Pb2Sn2O6 are found in the yellow glaze, from which only the lead tin oxide causes the yellow colour. In the black glazes, different Cr-rich pigments, Cu-Cr-Mn-oxides and iron containing clinopyroxenes are found, even in samples of the same period and region. Cr-rich particles are also detected in two turquoise Afghan glazes from the 15th and 16th century. The use of the ions of Fe, Cu, Co, Cr, and Mn seems to be widely common in the Islamic glazes and corresponds to the described colouring agents in e.g. the study of Tite (2011). The use of opacifying SnO2 particles is widespread as it is reported from different Islamic glazes from Iraq, Iran, Egypt, and Syria (Henshaw, 2010; O´Kane, 2011; Tite, 2011). The colouring agents are known already from former, e.g. Egyptian, Roman and pre-islamic periods, but especially SnO2 pigments became increasingly widespread in the Islamic glazing tradition. The use of yellow and black pigments instead varies already within the buildings from Bukhara from Cr crystals and clino-pyroxenes in the mosque Khoja Zainuddin to a Cu-Cr-Mn-oxide in the madrassa Mir-i Arab of the same epoch.
Regarding the matrix compositions connected with the colouring, a certain assignment within the different locations and epochs can be seen. It is noticeable that e.g. the content of lead in turquoise glazes in Uzbekistan is in the range of 0.0-9.2 wt% Pb, whereas blue glazes are mostly alkali ones with PbO contents <2.0 wt%. The turquoise glazes show, that this restriction is not influenced by any defaults of availability and processability. The assumption of common addition of lead and tin to the glaze, which is already described for Iranian glazes of the 13th century (Allan et al., 1973) cannot be confirmed by correlations of tin and lead oxide in the compositions.
11.2 Portable XRF measurement
With the p-XRF, semi-quantitative information about the major element compositions is generated. The depth of the detectable signals depends on the analysed sample setup. The p-XRF data are collected with the XL3 Hybrid device of the company Analyticon Instruments. In the comparison of p-XRF results of the “mining” program from Uzbek glazes with EPMA results, the same major composition groups can be distinguished. The Moroccan glazes, all lead rich, are measured with the “mining” as well as with the “soil” program, revealing a better performance in the “mining” measurements. The deviations are nevertheless high, because of the high lead contents, which make the calculation of matrix correction difficult.
The measurement of the colouring oxides MnO2, CoO, and CuO is satisfying with the internal calibration of the device and even improved with the “mining” program measurement, if compared to the results of the “soil” program. The measurements of glaze imitations lead to better results than that of bulk glass. This can be attributed to the smoother surface texture.
In spite of the accuracy limits in the measurements of particular elements in glazes, the classification of flux composition into three groups could be confirmed with the p XRF analysis. The measurement precision is therefore sufficient for the semi-quantitative analysis of the flux characteristic of glazes. Especially for the on-site measurement of large sample quantities on historical buildings, the device is a suitable tool.
11.3 Restoration material
The ORMOCER® fulfils the requirements of stability, reversibility, and transparency, which are imposed to a modern restoration material. As pigments, historically coloured glass, cobalt blue, Egyptian blue, lead tin yellow, manganese violet, iron oxide, copper oxide, and cassiterite were used. The metal compounds have higher colour intensities than the pigments of coloured glass. It has to be considered that the proportion of ORMOCER® in the batch must be high enough (70 vol%) to guarantee the ORMOCER® properties of weathering and mechanical stability. The adhesion properties of the ORMOCER® and the homogeneity of the mixture are the best in a fraction of max. 30 vol% particles per ORMOCER®.
With integrated particles, the ORMOCER® G materials show homogeneous coatings, whereas the particles in the ORMCOER® E show more agglomeration. In the sedimentation and weathering experiments, the use of an ultrasonic finger in combination with a roller mill is favourable compared to the treatment with bead grinding mill. The treatments with ultrasonic finger and roller mill result in less sedimentation and better adhesion of the dispersions. The treatment of the dispersions in the bead grinding mill does not result in sufficient adhesion, certainly due to the sedimentation behaviour and a congregation of particles on the bottom of the coating.
The modification of dispersed nano-particles by 3-methacryl-oxypropyltrimethoxysilan leads to a further homogenization in the sedimentation tests. It is therefore approved for the use in coloured glaze supplements. In weathered coatings of nano-particle compounds, the surface modification shows certainly no enhancement of stability.
The treatment of pigmented coatings with an additional layer of pure ORMOCER® results in a bright and transparent appearing, which is closer to the original optical appearance of the glaze. A long-time test application on a historical building will be the next step to validate the suitability of the restoration material.
The natural environment and livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) are significantly affected by the annual hydrological cycle. Monitoring of soil moisture as a key variable in the hydrological cycle is of great interest in a number of Hydrological and agricultural applications. In this study we evaluated the quality and spatiotemporal variability of the soil moisture product retrieved from C-band scatterometers data across the LMB sub-catchments. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm showed reasonable performance in most areas of the LMB with the exception of a few sub-catchments in the eastern parts of Laos, where the land cover is characterized by dense vegetation. The best performance of the retrieval algorithm was obtained in agricultural regions. Comparison of the available in situ evaporation data in the LMB and the Basin Water Index (BWI), an indicator of the basin soil moisture condition, showed significant negative correlations up to R = −0.85. The inter-annual variation of the calculated BWI was also found corresponding to the reported extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Mekong region. The retrieved soil moisture data show high correlation (up to R = 0.92) with monthly anomalies of precipitation in non-irrigated regions. In general, the seasonal variability of soil moisture in the LMB was well captured by the retrieval method. The results of analysis also showed significant correlation between El Niño events and the monthly BWI anomaly measurements particularly for the month May with the maximum correlation of R = 0.88.
The global-local sustainable development and climate change adaptation policy, and the emerging political discourse on the value of local Adaptation, have positioned the local institutions and their governance space within the strategic enclaves of multilevel governance system. Such shifts have transformed the context for sustainable Nature Based Tourism (NBT) development and adaptation in Nepal in general, and its protected areas, in particular. The emerging institutional adaptation discourse suggests on the need to link tourism development, adaptation and governance within the sustainability concept, and also to recognize the justice and inclusive dimensions of local adaptation. However, sociological investigation of institutional adaptation, particularly at the interface between sustainability, justice and inclusive local adaptation is an undertheorized research topic.
This exploratory study examined the sociological process of the institutional adaptation, especially the social resilience and adaptive governance capacities of the NBT institutions, in 7 Village Development Committees of the Mustang district, a popular destination in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. Using the sphere (a dynamic social space concept) and quality of governance as the analytical framework, the integrative adaptation as the methodological approach and the case study action research method, the study investigated and generated a holistic picture on the state of the social resilience and adaptive governance capacities of the NBT institutions.
The findings show institutional social resilience capacities to be contingent on socio-political construction of adaptation knowledge and power. Factors influencing such constructions among NBT institutions include: the site and institutions specific political, economic and environmental dispositions; the associated socio-political processes of knowledge constructions and volition action; and the social relationships and interaction, operating within the spheres and at multiple governance levels. The adaptive governance capacities hinge on the institutional arrangements, the procedural aspects of adaptation governance and the governmentality. These are reflective of the diverse legal frameworks, the interiority perspective of the decision making and governance practices of the NBT institutions.
In conclusion, it is argued that effective local adaptation in the Mustang district is contingent on the adaptation and institutional dynamics of the NBT institutions, consisting of the cognitive, subjective, process and procedural aspects of the adaptation knowledge production and its use.
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Droughts in Semi-Arid Regions by Using Meteorological Drought Indices
(2013)
Six meteorological drought indices including percent of normal (PN), standardized precipitation index (SPI), China-Z index (CZI), modified CZI (MCZI), Z-Score (Z), the aridity index of E. de Martonne (I) are compared and evaluated for assessing spatio-temporal dynamics of droughts in six climatic regions in Iran. Results indicated that by consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of the mentioned drought predictors in Iran, the Z-Score, CZI and MCZI could be used as a good meteorological drought predictor. Depending on the month, the length of drought and climatic conditions of the region, they are an alternative to the SPI that has limitations both because of only a few available long term data series in Iran and its complex structure.
A modified setup featuring high speed high resolution data and video recording was developed to obtain detailed information on trigger and heat transfer times during explosive molten fuel-coolant-interaction (MFCI). MFCI occurs predominantly in configurations where water is entrapped by hot melt. The setup was modified to allow direct observation of the trigger and explosion onset. In addition the influences of experimental control and data acquisition can now be more clearly distinguished from the pure phenomena. More precise experimental studies will facilitate the description of MFCI thermodynamics.
Les sécheresses des années 1970 et 1980 ont occasionné des changements remarquables dans les paysages et écosystèmes sahéliens. Au Niger, les milieux dunaires sont les plus affectés par la dégradation des paysages aux conséquences parfois irréversibles. Cette étude tente de montrer que, malgré les modifications climatiques et les pressions anthropiques, une régénération des sols dunaires serait possible, dans cette dynamique complexe. Cela a été démontré à travers l’analyse micromorphologique des matériaux des parties superficielles des sols (0-20 cm). L’étude des caractéristiques particulières des croûtes (organisations pelliculaires de surface des sols) offre des pistes de recherches pouvant proposer des moyens et méthodes de fixation des dunes dégradées. Elle propose également des alternatives de lutte contre l’érosion éolienne et hydrique dans les écosystèmes sahéliens. Ceci cadre parfaitement avec la situation au Niger, où les phénomènes de désertification et d’ensablement des cuvettes interdunaires constituent une préoccupation majeure en matière de protection de l’environnement.
Les sécheresses des années 1970 et 1980 ont occasionné des changements remarquables dans les paysages et écosystèmes sahéliens. Au Niger, les milieux dunaires sont les plus affectés par la dégradation des paysages aux conséquences parfois irréversibles. Cette étude tente de montrer que, malgré les modifications climatiques et les pressions anthropiques, une régénération des sols dunaires serait possible, dans cette dynamique complexe. Cela a été démontré à travers l’analyse micromorphologique des matériaux des parties superficielles des sols (0-20 cm). L’étude des caractéristiques particulières des croûtes (organisations pelliculaires de surface des sols) offre des pistes de recherches pouvant proposer des moyens et méthodes de fixation des dunes dégradées. Elle propose également des alternatives de lutte contre l’érosion éolienne et hydrique dans les écosystèmes sahéliens. Ceci cadre parfaitement avec la situation au Niger, où les phénomènes de désertification et d’ensablement des cuvettes interdunaires constituent une préoccupation majeure en matière de protection de l’environnement.
Background
Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health.
Methodology
We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d’Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children.
Principal Findings
Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d’Ivoire.
Conclusions/Significance
A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail-related fitness. Our model provides a useful tool to monitor the development of new hotspots of potential schistosomiasis transmission based on regularly updated remote sensing data.
Accurate quantification of land use/cover change (LULCC) is important for efficient environmental management, especially in regions that are extremely affected by climate variability and continuous population growth such as West Africa. In this context, accurate LULC classification and statistically sound change area estimates are essential for a better understanding of LULCC processes. This study aimed at comparing mono-temporal and multi-temporal LULC classifications as well as their combination with ancillary data and to determine LULCC across the heterogeneous landscape of southwest Burkina Faso using accurate classification results. Landsat data (1999, 2006 and 2011) and ancillary data served as input features for the random forest classifier algorithm. Five LULC classes were identified: woodland, mixed vegetation, bare surface, water and agricultural area. A reference database was established using different sources including high-resolution images, aerial photo and field data. LULCC and LULC classification accuracies, area and area uncertainty were computed based on the method of adjusted error matrices. The results revealed that multi-temporal classification significantly outperformed those solely based on mono-temporal data in the study area. However, combining mono-temporal imagery and ancillary data for LULC classification had the same accuracy level as multi-temporal classification which is an indication that this combination is an efficient alternative to multi-temporal classification in the study region, where cloud free images are rare. The LULCC map obtained had an overall accuracy of 92%. Natural vegetation loss was estimated to be 17.9% ± 2.5% between 1999 and 2011. The study area experienced an increase in agricultural area and bare surface at the expense of woodland and mixed vegetation, which attests to the ongoing deforestation. These results can serve as means of regional and global land cover products validation, as they provide a new validated data set with uncertainty estimates in heterogeneous ecosystems prone to classification errors.
Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d’Ivoire using high- and moderateresolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixelbased modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements.
Remote sensing for disease risk profiling: a spatial analysis of schistosomiasis in West Africa
(2014)
Global environmental change leads to the emergence of new human health risks. As a consequence, transmission opportunities of environment-related diseases are transformed and human infection with new emerging pathogens increase. The main motivation for this study is the considerable demand for disease surveillance and monitoring in relation to dynamic environmental drivers. Remote sensing (RS) data belong to the key data sources for environmental modelling due to their capabilities to deliver spatially continuous information repeatedly for large areas with an ecologically adequate spatial resolution.
A major research gap as identified by this study is the disregard of the spatial mismatch inherent in current modelling approaches of profiling disease risk using remote sensing data. Typically, epidemiological data are aggregated at school or village level. However, these point data do neither represent the spatial distribution of habitats, where disease-related species find their suitable environmental conditions, nor the place, where infection has occurred. As a consequence, the prevalence data and remotely sensed environmental variables, which aim to characterise the habitat of disease-related species, are spatially disjunct.
The main objective of this study is to improve RS-based disease risk models by incorporating the ecological and spatial context of disease transmission. Exemplified by the analysis of the human schistosomiasis disease in West Africa, this objective includes the quantification of the impact of scales and ecological regions on model performance.
In this study, the conditions that modify the transmission of schistosomiasis are reviewed in detail. A conceptual underpinning of the linkages between geographical RS measures, disease transmission ecology, and epidemiological survey data is developed. During a field-based analysis, environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was assessed on the ground, which is then quantified by a habitat suitability index (HSI) and applied to RS data. This conceptual model of environmental suitability is refined by the development of a hierarchical model approach that statistically links school-based disease prevalence with the ecologically relevant measurements of RS data. The statistical models of schistosomiasis risk are derived from two different algorithms; the Random Forest and the partial least squares regression (PLSR). Scale impact is analysed based on different spatial resolutions of RS data. Furthermore, varying buffer extents are analysed around school-based measurements. Three distinctive sites of Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire are specifically modelled to represent a gradient of ecozones from dry savannah to tropical rainforest including flat and mountainous regions.
The model results reveal the applicability of RS data to spatially delineate and quantitatively evaluate environmental suitability for the transmission of schistosomiasis. In specific, the multi-temporal derivation of water bodies and the assessment of their riparian vegetation coverage based on high-resolution RapidEye and Landsat data proofed relevant. In contrast, elevation data and water surface temperature are constraint in their ability to characterise habitat conditions for disease-related parasites and freshwater snail species. With increasing buffer extent observed around the school location, the performance of statistical models increases, improving the prediction of transmission risk. The most important RS variables identified to model schistosomiasis risk are the measure of distance to water bodies, topographic variables, and land surface temperature (LST). However, each ecological region requires a different set of RS variables to optimise the modelling of schistosomiasis risk. A key result of the hierarchical model approach is its superior performance to explain the spatial risk of schistosomiasis.
Overall, this study stresses the key importance of considering the ecological and spatial context for disease risk profiling and demonstrates the potential of RS data. The methodological approach of this study contributes substantially to provide more accurate and relevant geoinformation, which supports an efficient planning and decision-making within the public health sector.
Purpose – The purpose of this dissertation is to reveal the status quo of development of the grocery retailers’ internationalization process in China as well as to model future trends, opportunities and challenges within a very competitive market. Using several, geographically distant cities as case studies, this paper focuses on the development and outlook of different store formats, along with the development of competition in this respect by explicitly treating China not as a single market. The study thereby analyses historical and geographical diffusion in regard to store formats. The impacts of the main factors of change are discussed.
Design/methodology/approach – The dissertation reviews extensively the literature of grocery retail internationalization with special focus on China. In addition, it draws on primary research in the form of a wide range of expert interviews. As China´s ‘supermarket revolution’ is underway, an understanding of the local and foreign competition and the development of different store formats within different regions of China as well as their prospects, will be crucial to companies expanding into this area.
Findings – The study explains how grocery retailers have already entered the Chinese market with different store formats and how competition has and will further develop. In addition, the study reveals challenges and obstacles in regard to future market strategies, especially in regard to store formats and geographical regions.
Research limitations/implications – The study reveals the current landscape of the Chinese grocery retailing market and emphasizes important strategic pillars, modelling future implications and challenges for food retailers operating in China. Because China is a vast country this dissertation forms only a small part of the geographical evolution process in regard to store formats and competition.
Practical implications – Explores current understanding of the internationalization process in China by considering different format choices. Supplementary, the dissertation proposes an outlook of competition enlargement, prospects of format development and therewith strategic implications within different regions as well as a future research agenda.
Originality / value – Contributes to the understanding of the Chinese grocery retailing market. Furthermore, it is among the first to critically explore possible future developments in regard to store formats and competition within a geographical context in China
Regionalvermarktung ist in deutschen Biosphärenreservaten ein wichtiges Instrument zur Umsetzung des Leitbilds der nachhaltigen Entwicklung. Die Dachmarke Rhön im Biosphärenreservat Rhön hat in den vergangenen Jahren einen Vorbildcharakter in diesem Kontext entwickelt. Doch nur wenige quantitative Untersuchungen befassen sich bis jetzt mit der Frage, welche regionalökonomischen Effekte diese Initiativen haben. In der Arbeit werden die internen Wirtschaftsstrukturen, wie z.B. die Vorleistungen, der Dachmarkenmitglieder mit einer zufälligen Kontrollgruppe von regionalen Betrieben verglichen. Die wirtschaftlichen Differenzen zwischen den Untersuchungsgruppen stellen sich deutlicher dar, wenn die Dachmarke Rhön nicht als eine Einheit gesehen wird, sondern in drei Untergruppen geteilt wird.
Die Betriebe der Dachmarke Rhön haben aufgrund von tendenziell höheren Vorleistungsausgaben geringere Wertschöpfungsquoten auf der ersten Stufe des regionalökonomischen Modells. Die Analyse der Einkaufsbeziehungen und Investitionen macht aber deutlich, dass die Betriebe der Dachmarke Rhön dennoch einen Beitrag zur nachhaltigen Regionalentwicklung in der Rhön leisten können. Zur Erreichung dieses Ziels handeln die Betriebe der Dachmarke in vielerlei Hinsicht aus idealistischen Motiven.
Das Tibetplateau (TP) ist das höchste Gebirgsplateau der Erde und bildete sich im Verlauf der letzten 50 Millionen Jahre. Durch seine Ausmaße veränderte das TP nicht nur das Klima im heutigen Asien, sondern bewirkte Veränderungen weltweit. Heute stellt das TP einen Hotspot des Klimawandels dar und ist als Quellgebiet vieler großer Flüsse in Asien für die Wasserversorgung von Milliarden von Menschen von zentraler Bedeutung. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es wichtig, die Prozesse, die das Klima in der Region steuern, besser zu verstehen und die Variabilität des Klimas auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen abschätzen zu können.
Grundlegendes Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, räumlich hochaufgelöste quantitative Informationen über die Veränderung der klimatischen Verhältnisse in Asien während der Bildungsphase des TP und unter warm- und kaltzeitlichen Randbedingungen zur Verfügung zu stellen und dadurch eine Verbindung zwischen den verschiedenen Zeitskalen herzustellen. Hierfür werden das heutige Klima und das Paläoklima der Region mit Hilfe von Klimamodellen simuliert. Da frühere Studien zeigen konnten, dass die Ergebnisse von hochaufgelösten Modellen besser mit Paläoklimarekonstruktionen übereinstimmen, als die von vergleichsweise niedrig aufgelösten Globalmodellen, erfolgt ein dynamisches Downscaling des globalen Klimamodells ECHAM5 mit dem regionalen Klimamodell REMO.
Die Heraushebung des TP wird durch eine Serie von fünf Simulationen (Topogra- phieexperimente) approximiert, in denen die Höhe des TP in 25%-Schritten von 0% bis 100% der heutigen Höhe verändert wird. Die Schwankungen des Klimas im spä- ten Quartär sind durch Simulationen für das mittlere Holozän und den Hochstand der letzten Vereisung, das Last-Glacial-Maximum, repräsentiert (Quartärexperi- mente). In den Quartärexperimenten wurden die Treibhausgaskonzentrationen, Orbitalparameter, Landbedeckung und verschiedene Vegetationsparameter an die Bedingungen der jeweiligen Zeitscheibe angepasst. Die Auswertung der Simulati- onsergebnisse konzentriert sich auf jährliche und jahreszeitliche Veränderungen der bodennahen Temperatur und des Niederschlags. Außerdem werden die sich erge- benden Änderungen in der Intensität des indischen Monsuns anhand verschiedener Monsunindizes analysiert. Für das TP und die sich unmittelbar anschließenden Ge- biete wird zusätzlich eine Clusteranalyse durchgeführt, um die dort vorkommenden regionalen Klimatypen identifizieren und charakterisieren zu können.
In den Topographieexperimenten zeigt sich, dass die 2m-Temperatur im Bereich des TP im Jahresmittel mit abnehmender Höhe des Plateaus um bis zu 30◦C zunimmt, während es in den übrigen Teilen des Modellgebiets nahezu überall kälter wird. Die Jahressumme des Niederschlags nimmt mit abnehmender Höhe des TP westlich und nördlich davon zu. Im Bereich des TP sowie südlich und östlich davon gehen die Niederschläge zurück. Die starke Niederschlagszunahme nördlich des TP kann durch die Ausbildung eines Höhentrogs statt eines Höhenrückens in diesem Bereich erklärt werden. Das grundsätzliche räumliche Muster der Veränderungen besteht dabei bereits bei einer Plateauhöhe von 75% des Ausgangswertes und ändert sich bei weiterer Verringerung der Höhe nicht wesentlich. Lediglich der Betrag der Veränderungen nimmt zu. Dies gilt für die 2m-Temperatur und den Niederschlag und sowohl im Jahresmittel als auch für die einzelnen Jahreszeiten. Bezüglich der Intensität des indischen Sommermonsuns zeigt sich, dass zwischen 25% und 75% der heutigen Höhe des TP die stärkste Intensivierung stattfindet. Eine mit heute vergleichbare Monsunintensität tritt erst auf, wenn das TP die Hälfte seiner jetzigen Höhe erreicht hat.
Im mittleren Holozän ist es im Jahresmittel in den meisten Teilen des Modellge- biets kälter und feuchter als heute. Die Unterschiede sind jedoch größtenteils gering und nicht signifikant. Hinsichtlich der Temperatur zeigen die Modelldaten nur vereinzelt eine gute Übereinstimmung mit den rekonstruierten Werten. Allerdings weisen die Rekonstruktionen eine hohe räumliche Variabilität auf, wodurch die in diesem Datensatz vorhandenen Unsicherheiten widergespiegelt werden. Hinsicht- lich des Niederschlags ist die Übereinstimmung besser. Hier deuten sowohl die simulierten als auch die rekonstruierten Daten auf feuchtere Bedingungen hin.
In der Simulation für das Last-Glacial-Maximum liegen die Temperaturen überall im Modellgebiet im Jahresmittel und in allen Jahreszeiten um bis zu 8◦C unter den heutigen Werten. Es besteht eine gute Übereinstimmung mit den rekonstruierten Temperaturwerten für diese Zeitscheibe. Zu einer signifikanten Abnahme der jährlichen Niederschlagsmenge kommt es westlich und nordwestlich des TP, in Indien, Südostasien und entlang der Ostküste Chinas. Für die Bereiche, für die Niederschlagsrekonstruktionen verfügbar sind, stimmen die Modellergebnisse gut mit diesen überein. Zu einer signifikanten Niederschlagszunahme kommt es nur zwischen der Nordküste des Golfs von Bengalen und dem Himalaya, wobei dies möglicherweise ein Modellartefakt darstellt.
Hinsichtlich der Monsunintensität bestehen große Unterschiede zwischen den Indizes. Während der Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall Index eine starke Ab- schwächung des indischen Sommermonsuns anzeigt, ist der Wert des Webster and Yang Monsoon Index verglichen mit heute nahezu unverändert. Ein Vergleich der Monsunintensität in den Topographie- und den Quartärexperimenten macht deut- lich, dass der indische Monsun durch den Wechsel von warm- und kaltzeitlichen Randbedingungen mindestens so stark beeinflusst wird wie durch die Hebung des TP.
Der vielschichtige Begriff Entwicklung stellt die Basis für die multidisziplinäre Entwicklungsforschung, aber auch die Entwicklungspolitik und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit dar und wird demzufolge auf verschiedenste Art und Weise verwendet. Insbesondere zu den Auswirkungen regionaler Entwicklungsprozesse auf lokaler Ebene existieren innerhalb der entwicklungstheoretischen Ideengeschichte eine Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Zugänge, über die die vorliegende Arbeit einen kurzen Überblick gibt. Unter Berücksichtigung anthropogeographischer Ansätze zur Erforschung des Verhältnisses von Entwicklung und Raum werden im ersten (theoretischen) Teil die Konzepte der lokalen Partizipation sowie der Politischen Ökologie als geeignete Analyseinstrumente für das Verständnis konkreter lokaler Entwicklungsprozesse erarbeitet; Entwicklung wird hierbei akteurs- und kontextorientiert als Ergebnis von Mensch-Umwelt-Interaktionen angesehen.
Im Rahmen eines case study research wird im zweiten Teil der Arbeit die Praxistauglichkeit dieser Analyseinstrumente überprüft. Hierfür werden in zwei Untersuchungsregionen regionale Entwicklungsdynamiken beschrieben und analysiert, um deren räumliche und soziale Auswirkungen zu verstehen. In beiden Gebieten (Mampu/Mbankana in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo sowie Wasini Island in Kenia) hat in den vergangenen Jahren eine durch unterschiedliche Prozesse verursachte rasante Regionalentwicklung stattgefunden, die die Gebiete jeweils deutlich von ihrem Umland abhebt. Im Fallbeispiel Wasini Island wurde die Entwicklung durch den (internationalen) Tourismus bedingt, in Mampu/Mbankana durch ein Entwicklungsprojekt der Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung (HSS). Für beide Gebiete wird zuerst der naturräumliche, politische und historische Kontext aufgezeigt, welcher die Rahmenbedingungen für die Analyse der einzelnen Akteure und Akteursgruppen darstellt. Sowohl für Wasini Island als auch für Mampu/Mbankana können während des Untersuchungszeitraums Ereignisse identifiziert werden, die von der einheimischen Bevölkerung (bzw. Teilen dieser) als stark situationsverändernd und zudem nicht endogen verursacht wahrgenommen werden (externe Krisen): in Wasini der drastische Einbruch der Touristenzahlen nach den Unruhen im Nachgang der Präsidentschaftswahlen (2007/08 Kenyan Crisis), im kongolesischen Untersuchungsgebiet der schrittweise Rückzug der HSS aus dem operativen Projekt ab 2009 und die damit einhergehende Übertragung von Verantwortung auf lokale Gremien und Organisationen.
Durch die Zusammenführung der Ergebnisse aus beiden Fallbeispielen wird konstatiert, dass Entwicklung auf regionaler Ebene als ein kontext- und akteursabhängiger dynamischer Prozess anzusehen ist, der aus den kumulierten, in beide Richtungen wirksamen Mensch-Umwelt-Interaktionen in der betrachteten Region resultiert, und damit in der Tradition geopossibilistischer Perspektiven steht, in denen die natürliche bzw. geographische ebenso wie die gesellschaftliche Umwelt die Rahmenbedingungen für menschliches Handeln und damit Entwicklung vorgibt, jedoch nicht determiniert.
Mapping threatened dry deciduous dipterocarp forest in South-east Asia for conservation management
(2014)
Habitat loss is the primary reason for species extinction, making habitat conservation a critical strategy for maintaining global biodiversity. Major habitat types, such as lowland tropical evergreen forests or mangrove forests, are already well represented in many conservation priorities, while others are underrepresented. This is particularly true for dry deciduous dipterocarp forests (DDF), a key forest type in Asia that extends from the tropical to the subtropical regions in South-east Asia (SE Asia), where high temperatures and pronounced seasonal precipitation patterns are predominant. DDF are a unique forest ecosystem type harboring a wide range of important and endemic species and need to be adequately represented in global biodiversity conservation strategies. One of the greatest challenges in DDF conservation is the lack of detailed and accurate maps of their distribution due to inaccurate open-canopy seasonal forest mapping methods. Conventional land cover maps therefore tend to perform inadequately with DDF. Our study accurately delineates DDF on a continental scale based on remote sensing approaches by integrating the strong, characteristic seasonality of DDF. We also determine the current conservation status of DDF throughout SE Asia. We chose SE Asia for our research because its remaining DDF are extensive in some areas but are currently degrading and under increasing pressure from significant socio-economic changes throughout the region. Phenological indices, derived from MODIS vegetation index time series, served as input variables for a Random Forest classifier and were used to predict the spatial distribution of DDF. The resulting continuous fields maps of DDF had accuracies ranging from R-2 = 0.56 to 0.78. We identified three hotspots in SE Asia with a total area of 156,000 km(2), and found Myanmar to have more remaining DDF than the countries in SE Asia. Our approach proved to be a reliable method for mapping DDF and other seasonally influenced ecosystems on continental and regional scales, and is very valuable for conservation management in this region.
Spätestens mit der Erstauflage der deutschen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie 2002 wurde die Notwendigkeit einer Reduzierung der Flächeninanspruchnahme politisch anerkannt. Die damit verbundene Einführung des „30-ha-Ziels“, definiert als eine Reduktion der täglichen Flächeninanspruchnahme im Bundesgebiet von 120 ha/Tag auf 30 ha/Tag im Jahr 2020, soll den negativen Auswirkungen wie z.B. Zersiedelung oder sozialer Segregation Einhalt gebieten. Trotz intensiver Bemühungen konnte jedoch keine deutliche Reduzierung der Flächeninanspruchnahme erreicht werden. 2007 betrug die tägliche Neuinanspruchnahme von Flächen immer noch 96 ha .
An diesem Punkt knüpft die Arbeit an und versucht mittels eines akteurszentrierten Ansatzes einen Erkenntnisgewinn zur Ursachenforschung der Flächeninanspruchnahme zu liefern. Ziel ist die Untersuchung der Raumrelevanz planerischer und politischer Entscheidungsprozesse vor dem Hintergrund einer nachhaltigen Siedlungsentwicklung und Flächeninanspruchnahme. Dabei erfolgt eine schwerpunktmäßige Betrachtung der Regional- und Bauleitplanung im Rahmen einer Flächennutzung durch Wohnen. Denn diese Akteure stellen nicht nur zentrale „Flächennutzungsentscheider“ dar, sondern sind auch Anknüpfungspunkt zahlreicher Handlungsstrategien/-maßnahmen. Die Arbeit fokussiert dabei die Entscheidungsfindung der Planung und der politischen Gremien bei der Aufstellung von Regional- und Flächennutzungsplänen und den ihr immanenten Entscheidungen, nämlich der Abwägung und dem Beschluss, sowie deren Wechselwirkungen untereinander. Die Fragestellung wird dabei anhand von Fallstudien in Städten, die in der Vergangenheit von Schrumpfungsprozessen betroffen waren, konkret die Städte Dresden und Leipzig, und in Regionen, welche mit einer wachsenden Bevölkerung konfrontiert sind, hier die Regionen München und Rhein-Neckar, eruiert. Hierzu kamen verschiedene Methoden zum Einsatz, in deren Zentrum die Anwendung des Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) und qualitativer Experteninterviews stehen.
Im Ergebnis kann ausgesagt werden, dass weniger raumstrukturelle Ausgangssituationen, als vielmehr kommunalspezifische Handlungsorientierungen das Maß einer Reduzierung der Flächeninanspruchnahme bestimmen. Um deren Beweggründe eruieren zu können, ist es sowohl auf regionaler als auch auf kommunaler Ebene wichtig, die Interaktionsbeziehungen zwischen planerischen und politischen Akteuren und den ihnen zugrunde liegenden Handlungsorientierungen zu beleuchten. Denn diese spezielle Inter-aktionsbeziehung spielt eine bedeutende Rolle zum Verständnis planerischer und politischer Entscheidungen vor dem Hintergrund des Flächensparziels, da das Thema Flächenverbrauch als ein fachliches und sehr komplexes Thema wahrgenommen wird, welches sich in seiner Gesamtheit den politischen Akteuren aufgrund deren begrenzter Zeit oftmals nicht erschließt.
Planerischen Entscheidungen können dabei immer flächensparende Bestrebungen konstatiert werden, politischen Entscheidungen eingeschränkt dadurch, ob es der Planung gelingt, das Flächensparziel der Politik nahe zu bringen, es nicht anderen Anliegen entgegensteht und ein dahingehendes Verhalten nicht zu Nachteilen im Konkurrenzkampf mit den anderen Kommunen führt. Jedoch kann auch aus den Ergebnissen abgeleitet werden, dass nach außen gelebtes Flächensparen oftmals nicht auf ein Bewusstseins des Wertes der Fläche per se zurückzuführen ist. Es hängt vielmehr davon ab, wie hoch der Problemdruck auf Basis alter Flächenausweisungen ist und inwieweit es sich als Nebenprodukt aus den planerischen und politischen Entscheidungen ergibt. Oftmals verhindern aber auch u.a. Eigentumsstrukturen und rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen, wie die bis dato noch kaum diskutierten Eingemeindungsverträge, dass eine Reduzierung der Flächeninanspruchnahme vollzogen wird. Resultat hieraus ist, dass es keinen allgemeingültigen Maßnahmen- oder Instrumentarienkatalog geben kann, um eine Flächeninanspruchnahme voranzutreiben. Vielmehr gilt es infolge der Analyse von Akteuren, Akteurskonstellationen und institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen diese entsprechend einzusetzen bzw. zu generieren.
The glaciers in Norway exert a strong influence on Norwegian economy and society. Unlike many glaciers elsewhere and despite ongoing climate change and warming, many of them showed renewed advances and positive net mass changes in the 1980's and 1990's, followed by rapid retreats and mass losses since 2000. This difference in behaviour may be attributed to differences and shifts in the glaciological regime - the differences in the magnitude of impacts of climatic and non-climatic geographical factors on the glacier mass.
This study investigates the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass balance changes of a selection of glaciers in Norway by means of Pearson correlation analyses and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for three time periods (1949-2008, 1949-1988, 1989-2008) separately in order to take into consideration the possible shift in the glaciological regime in the 1980's. The atmospheric variables are constructed from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analysis datasets and include regional means of seasonal air temperature and precipitation rates and atmospheric circulation indices. The multiple regression models trained in these time periods are then applied to predictors reconstructed from the CMIP3 climate model dataset to generate an estimate for mass changes from the year 1950 to 2100. The temporal overlap of estimates and observations is used for calibration. Finally, observed atmospheric states in seasons that are characterised by a particularly positive or negative mass balance are categorised into time periods of modelled climate by the application of a Bayesian classification procedure.
The strongest influence on winter mass balance is exerted by different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and precipitation. The correlation coefficients and explained variances determined from the multiple regression analyses reveal an East-West gradient, suggesting a weaker influence of the NAO and NAM on glaciers underlying a more continental regime. The highest correlation coefficients and explained variances were obtained for the 1989-2008 time period, which might be due to a strong and predominantly positive phase of the NAO. Multi-model ensemble means of the estimates show a mass loss for all three eastern glaciers, while the estimates for the more maritime glaciers are ambivalent. In general, the estimates show a greater sensitivity to the training time period than to the greenhouse gas emission scenarios according to which the climates were simulated. The average net mass change by the end of 2100 is negative for all glaciers except for the northern Engabreen. For many glaciers, the Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states into time periods of modelled climate reveals a decrease in probability of atmospheric states favouring extremes in winter, and an increase in probability of atmospheric states favouring extreme mass loss in summer for the distant future (2071-2100). This pattern of probabilities for the ablation season is most pronounced for glaciers underlying a continental and intermediate regime.
The ecosystem of the high northern latitudes is affected by the recently changing environmental conditions. The Arctic has undergone a significant climatic change over the last decades. The land coverage is changing and a phenological response to the warming is apparent. Remotely sensed data can assist the monitoring and quantification of these changes. The remote sensing of the Arctic was predominantly carried out by the usage of optical sensors but these encounter problems in the Arctic environment, e.g. the frequent cloud cover or the solar geometry. In contrast, the imaging of Synthetic Aperture Radar is not affected by the cloud cover and the acquisition of radar imagery is independent of the solar illumination. The objective of this work was to explore how polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) data of TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X, Radarsat-2 and ALOS PALSAR and interferometric-derived digital elevation model data of the TanDEM-X Mission can contribute to collect meaningful information on the actual state of the Arctic Environment. The study was conducted for Canadian sites of the Mackenzie Delta Region and Banks Island and in situ reference data were available for the assessment. The up-to-date analysis of the PolSAR data made the application of the Non-Local Means filtering and of the decomposition of co-polarized data necessary.
The Non-Local Means filter showed a high capability to preserve the image values, to keep the edges and to reduce the speckle. This supported not only the suitability for the interpretation but also for the classification. The classification accuracies of Non-Local Means filtered data were in average +10% higher compared to unfiltered images. The correlation of the co- and quad-polarized decomposition features was high for classes with distinct surface or double bounce scattering and a usage of the co-polarized data is beneficial for regions of natural land coverage and for low vegetation formations with little volume scattering. The evaluation further revealed that the X- and C-Band were most sensitive to the generalized land cover classes. It was found that the X-Band data were sensitive to low vegetation formations with low shrub density, the C-Band data were sensitive to the shrub density and the shrub dominated tundra. In contrast, the L-Band data were less sensitive to the land cover. Among the different dual-polarized data the HH/VV-polarized data were identified to be most meaningful for the characterization and classification, followed by the HH/HV-polarized and the VV/VH-polarized data. The quad-polarized data showed highest sensitivity to the land cover but differences to the co-polarized data were small. The accuracy assessment showed that spectral information was required for accurate land cover classification. The best results were obtained when spectral and radar information was combined. The benefit of including radar data in the classification was up to +15% accuracy and most significant for the classes wetland and sparse vegetated tundra. The best classifications were realized with quad-polarized C-Band and multispectral data and with co-polarized X-Band and multispectral data. The overall accuracy was up to 80% for unsupervised and up to 90% for supervised classifications. The results indicated that the shortwave co-polarized data show promise for the classification of tundra land cover since the polarimetric information is sensitive to low vegetation and the wetlands. Furthermore, co-polarized data provide a higher spatial resolution than the quad-polarized data.
The analysis of the intermediate digital elevation model data of the TanDEM-X showed a high potential for the characterization of the surface morphology. The basic and relative topographic features were shown to be of high relevance for the quantification of the surface morphology and an area-wide application is feasible. In addition, these data were of value for the classification and delineation of landforms. Such classifications will assist the delineation of geomorphological units and have potential to identify locations of actual and future morphologic activity.