610 Medizin und Gesundheit
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Background: There is a lack of predictive models to identify patients at risk of high neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT)-related acute toxicity in rectal cancer. Patient and Methods: The CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial was divided into a development (n = 831) and a validation (n = 405) cohort. Using a best subset selection approach, predictive models for grade 3–4 acute toxicity were calculated including clinicopathologic characteristics, pretreatment blood parameters, and baseline results of quality-of-life questionnaires and evaluated using the area under the ROC curve. The final model was internally and externally validated. Results: In the development cohort, 155 patients developed grade 3–4 toxicities due to CRT. In the final evaluation, 15 parameters were included in the logistic regression models using best-subset selection. BMI, gender, and emotional functioning remained significant for predicting toxicity, with a discrimination ability adjusted for overfitting of AUC 0.687. The odds of experiencing high-grade toxicity were 3.8 times higher in the intermediate and 6.4 times higher in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). Rates of toxicity (p = 0.001) and low treatment adherence (p = 0.007) remained significantly different in the validation cohort, whereas discrimination ability was not significantly worse (DeLong test 0.09). Conclusion: We developed and validated a predictive model for toxicity using gender, BMI, and emotional functioning. Such a model could help identify patients at risk for treatment-related high-grade toxicity to assist in treatment guidance and patient participation in shared decision making.
Postoperatives Erbrechen ist ein häufiges und den Patienten belastendes Problem, insbesondere nach Inhalationsanaesthesien. Anhand von fünf Risikofaktoren, die wir anhand eines ausreichend großen Patientenkollektivs evaluieren und validieren konnten, nämlich niedriges Alter, weibliches Geschlecht, bekannte Übelkeit/bekanntes Erbrechen nach Narkosen und/oder bekannte Reisekrankheit, Nichtraucher-Status und längere Operationsdauer, entwickelten wir einen rasch ablesbaren prädiktiven Scores, um das individuelle Risiko eines erwachsenen Patienten für postoperatives Erbrechen nach Inhalationsanaesthesien zu ermitteln.